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This study presents the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)-induced Trade Supply Chain Vulnerability (TSCV) on the Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in India by leveraging the World Bank Enterprise Survey data for 2014 and 2022. Applying econometric techniques, it examines firm size’ influence on productivity and trade participation, providing insights for enhancing SME resilience and trade participation amid uncertainty.

The econometric techniques focus on export participation, along with variables such as total exports, firm size, productivity, and capital intensity. It addresses crucial factors such as the direct import of intermediate goods and foreign ownership. Utilizing the Cobb-Douglas production function, the study estimates Total Factor Productivity, mitigating endogeneity and multicollinearity through a two-stage process. Besides, the study uses a case study of North Indian SMEs engaged in manufacturing activities and their adoption of mitigation strategies to combat unprecedented EPU.

Results reveal that EPU-induced TSCV reduces exports, impacting employment and firm size. Increased productivity, driven by technological adoption, correlates with improved export performance. The study highlights the negative impact of TSCV on trade participation, particularly for smaller Indian firms. Moreover, SMEs implement cost-based, supplier-based, and inventory-based strategies more than technology-based and risk-based strategies.

Policy recommendations include promoting increased imports and inward foreign direct investment to enhance small firms’ trade integration during economic uncertainty. Tailored support for smaller firms, considering their limited capacity, is crucial. Encouraging small firms to engage in international trade and adopting diverse SC mitigation strategies associated with policy uncertainty are vital considerations.

This study explores the impact of EPU-induced TSCV on Indian SMEs’ trade dynamics, offering nuanced insights for policymakers to enhance SME resilience amid uncertainty. The econometric analysis unveils patterns in export behavior, productivity, and factors influencing trade participation during economic uncertainty.

The study aims to examine the joint effects of foreign ownership (FO) and involvement in global value chains (GVCs) on the productivity performance of firms from a catching-up country (Poland) and a leader economy (Germany).

The authors use micro-level data on firms combined with several sector-level GVC participation measures. The authors investigate whether the link between productivity and the overall sectoral degree of involvement in global production structures depends on a firm's ownership. The authors verify the robustness of the obtained results by using an instrumental variables approach and weighted regression.

The results show that domestically owned firms are less productive than foreign ones, which is particularly true at low GVC participation levels. However, as GVC involvement increases, the FO productivity premium decreases, leading to productivity catching up between foreign and domestically owned firms. This mechanism is similar in Poland and Germany. However, in the leader country (Germany), the productivity performance of domestically owned firms is more stable along the distribution of GVC involvement.

This study contributes to the foreign direct investment (FDI)–productivity literature by comparing the catching-up and developed countries' perspectives and incorporating the productivity–GVC relationship into the FDI analysis. The authors show that the FO premium is not confined to the developing context but is also present in a leader country. Moreover, the link between productivity and the overall sectoral degree of involvement in global production structures depends on a firm's ownership.

The focus of this paper is to provide an assessment of the impact of imports from China on Indian manufacturing and capture the multifarious dimensions of India–China bilateral trade flows. By examining the comparative disadvantage imports (RCA<1), the paper critically examines their significance on India's industry output and performance and underlines factors beyond trade competitiveness.

For examining the impact of India's manufacturing imports from China on industry performance, four stages of analysis is adopted. First, the imports with RCA <1 have been identified. For these, BRCA was also computed. Second, trends in industry performance associated with high imports from China. Third, for estimating the impact of imports on industry output, augmented production function was specified and estimated with imports from China as a potential determinant. And fourth, comparison of industry performance between India and China.

The impact of imports from China on industry output is positive and significant. A 1% increase/decrease in the share of China in world imports will result in output increasing by 0.31%. The rise in imports from China seems to be on account of non-availability of necessary intermediate and capital goods domestically, thereby making these imports critical and complementary for production. This negates the threat perception of imports from China.

The paper recognizes the need for understanding the firm heterogeneity in import decisions and R&D intensity of imports. Across industries, the drivers for firms' decisions to import are “learning by importing’ and “self-selection” (Camino-Magro et al., 2020). Also, another important dimension at the firm-level analysis is the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic inputs. If the elasticity of substitution is low then high import barriers will lead to reduction of domestic output. These firm-level issues are important for effective policy interventions.

One, the inward looking focus of the industry which is exhibited in low export intensity will not provide the necessary impetus to propel the manufacturing sector to a higher technology frontier and translate the productivity gains to export competitiveness. Two, unless the domestic manufacturing is propelled from the current low/medium technology to high technology products, the current policy thrust on “self-reliance” cannot be realized.

Analysis is based on manufacturing imports with RCA<1 from China thereby underlining factors beyond trade competitiveness not covered by RCA methodology. Complementing the quantitative analysis with economic policy developments in China and India and contrasting the same has provided insights into the real factors determining India–China bilateral trade.

This study explores the effect of local budget retention rate changes (RER) on total factor productivity (TFP) and its components in Vietnam.

The study employs a two-system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and data from 2012 to 2019 across all 63 provinces/cities of Vietnam.

The study finds that local budget retention rates significantly influence public investment, affecting scale and allocation efficiency. The reallocation of budgets between regions and from the central government to local levels incurs certain costs, often resulting in economically robust provinces experiencing reductions in their retention rates.

Recognizing the challenges of immediate structural budget changes due to cultural and historical factors, the study suggests a more gradual policy approach. It emphasizes the importance of policy predictability, as abrupt reductions in the retention rate lead to higher costs than gradual reductions, thus implementing budget policies with a clearer timeline. This study provides insight into local budget allocation regimes and their impact on productivity in transitioning countries.

First, the study provides fresh evidence of the impact of retention rate changes on TFP and its components in Vietnam. Second, the study provides insights into the mechanisms of the nexus of increased budget spending, capital efficiency and, most importantly, attaining improvement in education. We also offer further insights into inefficient budget allocation agents in Vietnam, especially in large cities, which should alert scholars to explore this topic further in the future.

Although India is seen as a key player in the global economy, it is still below its potential level of growth. In this age of globalism, integration with the global economy through trade and foreign investments fosters domestic growth. For India, although this integration has strengthened over the years, there are certain gaps that remain to be addressed. Though numerous studies in the literature have tried to find answers to these questions, an important aspect that has not been considered by these studies relates to India’s federal structure and the role of states in determining the aggregate economic outcome. As Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to India are concentrated in a few states, this paper aims to provide an assessment of the reasons behind this trend.

This paper aims to investigate the reasons behind the interstate differences with respect to FDI inflows in India. The analytical work undertaken for this paper is based on secondary data, collected and collated from various sources. The approach adopted for this paper includes a heat graph analysis to examine whether there is a clear pattern in terms of the state-specific factors for high FDI states versus the low FDI states. This data analysis is followed by an econometric estimation to gauge the impact of state-specific factors in determining the FDI inflows.

As per the secondary data–driven heat graph and econometric analysis, factors like industrial output, social sector expenditure, judicial quality, connectivity indicators, labor cost and availability of credit, act as differentiators between high and low FDI-receiving states. It then becomes imperative to bridge the gap between the two sets of states in terms of these specific factors. Implementation and success of policy interventions can only be derived at the state level and therefore needs more decentralized approach.

This paper tries to identify the reasons that are responsible for FDI inflows being concentrated in a few Indian states. This involves a comprehensive analysis of several variables to understand whether there is a clear pattern where high-FDI states are also in a better position with respect to these attributes. This effort to factor in the federal aspect of a macroeconomic indicator like FDI provides new dynamic to this area of work.

In the process of making agricultural production decisions in rural households, severe weather conditions, either extreme cold or heat, may squeeze the labor input in the agricultural sector, leading to a reallocation of labor between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. By applying a dataset with a wide latitude range, this study empirically confirms the influence of extreme temperatures on the agricultural labor reallocation, reveal the mechanism of farmers’ adaptive behavioral decision and therefore enriches the research on the impact of climate change on rural labor markets and livelihood strategies.

This study utilizes data from Chinese meteorological stations and two waves of China Household Income Project to examine the impact and behavioral mechanism of extreme temperatures on rural labor reallocation.

(1) Extremely high and low temperatures had led to a reallocation of labor force from agricultural activities to non-farm employment, with a more pronounced effect from extreme high temperature events. (2) Extreme temperatures influence famers’ decision in abandoning farmland and reducing investment in agricultural machinery, thus creating an interconnected impact on labor mobility. (3) The reallocation effect of rural labor induced by extreme temperatures is particularly evident for males, persons that perceives economic hardship or labor in economically active areas.

By applying a dataset with a wide latitude range, this study empirically confirms the influence of extreme temperatures on the agricultural labor reallocation, and reveals the mechanism of farmers’ adaptive behavioral decision and therefore enriches the research on the impact of climate change on rural labor markets and livelihood strategies.

This study investigates whether and how place-based industrial relocation policy affects firm innovation.

By exploiting the establishment of China's National Industrial Relocation Demonstration Zones (NIRDZs) as a quasi-natural experiment in a difference-in-differences design, the authors examine the externalities of industrial policies that support sustainable development and growth from the perspectives of firms' patenting activities.

The study consistently finds that the NIRDZs policy significantly boosts local firm innovation, translating into a 60.46% increase in the patent applications of treated firms. The estimation results remain robust to a series of alternative specifications. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis suggests that the firms that benefited most were state-owned enterprises, firms with higher productivity, or firms in non-high-tech industries. Further, the authors find that the NIRDZs policy stimulates firm innovation mainly in the form of utility model patents, followed by designs and invention patents.

The results provide suggestions and implications for policymakers to improve the efficiency of state-led industrial policies and avoid “government failure” in policy implementation.

This study provides suggestions and implications for policymakers to improve the efficiency of state-led industrial policies and avoid “government failure” in the policy implementation.

This study fills the research gap by exploiting quasi-experiments to assess the effectiveness of state-led industrial policies for emerging economies. (2) The analysis sheds empirical light on how corporate innovation is motivated and financed by selective and functional industrial policies. (3) Theoretically, the results rationalize why state-led industrial relocation fuel innovation capabilities of localities from Marshall externalities and competition crowding-out effects.

This study examines the impact of China's trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on Africa's global value chain (GVC) participation and economic upgrading.

The study covered 48 African countries, cutting across the western, eastern, central, southern and northern subregions to cover the heterogeneity of the continent. The study adopted feasible generalized least squares panel VAR-Granger causality Wald test and system generalized methods of moments techniques for estimation.

Overall, China's FDI to Africa and US-Africa trade have a linear relationship with Africa's GVC involvement and economic upgrading. The findings suggest that although China-Africa trade has a positive impact on GVC engagement and upgrading, the marginal effect decreases in the face of US-Africa and EU-Africa trade.

This study provides new evidence on the impact of China's FDI and trade on African economies' GVC participation and economic upgrading. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically explore the effects of China's FDI and trade on Africa's GVC integration and economic upgrading as well as from the perspectives of backward and forward GVC participation. Furthermore, the study empirically examines whether the effects of Africa's economic cooperation with China relative to its GVC engagement differ from those of Europe (EU) and the US via a comparative regression.