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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The purpose of this paper is to review recent studies published from 2007 to 2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field.

Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published mostly in both science citation index and social sciences citation index journals were identified and analyzed.

This review finds that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, whereas disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area.

The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting.

This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices.

The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

This study aims to critically evaluate hospitality and tourism demand research and introduce a behavioral economics approach to solve the problems faced by researchers.

Current issues in hospitality and tourism demand analysis are identified through critical reflection, and a behavioral economics approach is adopted to develop a new conceptual framework.

Four issues in hospitality and tourism studies are identified from the microeconomic theory and econometric modeling perspectives. The study’s demand framework provides both a theoretical underpinning and quantitative models to resolve the identified issues. With a focus on consumers’ cost–benefit assessments in light of individual differences and environmental factors, the authors’ conceptual framework represents a new effort to quantify hospitality and tourism demand at the disaggregate level with interactive multiple demand curve estimations.

The study’s analytical framework for hospitality and tourism demand analysis is unique, and it fills the research gap. However, this research is still in the conceptual stage, and the authors leave it to future studies to empirically test the framework.

The proposed demand framework at the disaggregate level will benefit both private and public sectors involved in hospitality and tourism businesses in terms of pricing, marketing and policymaking.

The authors offer a new conceptual model that bridges the gap between aggregate and disaggregate hospitality and tourism demand analyses. Specifically, the authors identify research directions for future hospitality and tourism demand research involving individual tourists/consumers at the disaggregate level.

Most existing studies on the impact of tourism on economic growth adopt an econometric approach that is insufficient to confirm that tourism actually leads to economic growth. Moreover, it cannot explain the causalities of different variables. Taking Mauritius as an example, this study aims to use the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach to investigate the contribution of tourism to economic growth when there is a productivity shock in the tourism sector.

A two-sector, small, open economy is modelled under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The model is estimated using the Bayesian method based on real tourism and macroeconomic data from Mauritius for the period from 1999 to 2014. The impulse response functions are used to simulate the contribution of tourism to economic growth when there is a productivity shock in the tourism sector.

The simulation results show that the Mauritian gross domestic product (GDP) would increase by 0.09 per cent if the productivity of tourism is improved by 1 per cent, indicating that tourism could lead to economic growth. Considering the average annual growth rate of the Mauritian GDP, the contribution of tourism to its economic growth is significant. Furthermore, the effects of tourism on economic growth are moderated by price elasticities in international tourism demand.

This is the first study that estimates the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using the Bayesian method in tourism economic field. By correcting the prior information with real tourism and macroeconomic data, the estimation and simulation results are more robust compared with the calibration method, which has been used frequently in tourism studies.

This study aims to examine the effect of several types of ex post idiosyncratic deals (i-deals) on work–life balance and work well-being, focusing on the mediating effect of work–life balance on the relationship between ex post i-deals and work well-being as well as the moderating effect of gender on the relationship between ex post i-deals and work–life balance in the hospitality industry.

This study uses a questionnaire survey of 642 hotel managers from developed cities in China and analyze the data with structural equation modeling. This study also conducts on-site interviews among 20 hotel managers to support conclusions of the survey.

The results indicate that task i-deals as well as career and incentives i-deals significantly promote work–life balance, thereby indirectly improving work well-being. However, the impact of flexibility i-deals on work–life balance and work well-being is insignificant. The influence of career and incentives i-deals on work–life balance for males is slightly stronger than that for females.

This study has practical implications for hotel employers in terms of using various ex post i-deals to motivate and retain hotel managers by improving personal work–life balance and work well-being.

As one of early attempts to highlight the potential of i-deals to serve as solutions for work–life conflicts and unhappiness issues among hotel managers, this study provides novel insights into the mediating process between ex post i-deals and work well-being from the work–life balance perspective as well as distinct influences of various ex post i-deals on work–life balance for male and female managers.

This study aims to use the theory of third places to understand how different kinds of social interactions in small hospitality businesses, such as restaurants and cafes, can enhance senior customers’ experiences and alleviate their loneliness.

The target population of this study were Hong Kong residents of age 60 or older. The sampling frame comprised respondents who visited a Cha Chaan Teng (i.e. a Hong Kong-style tea restaurant) more than once a year. The authors distributed 500 questionnaires and collected 411 valid responses in 2016. They used structural equation modeling for data analysis.

The results show that social interactions (service manner and need identification) with employees and other customers have a positive effect on senior customers’ experiences, while the service manner of employees reduces senior customers’ loneliness.

This study demonstrates the respective contributions of social interactions with employees and those with other customers to enhancing senior customers’ experiences and alleviating their loneliness. This study’s findings may provide a foundation for future research into the relationships between social interactions, customer experience and loneliness in third places (that are, informal public places that offer individuals opportunities to escape from home and the workplace and to enjoy voluntary conversation, entertainment and gatherings). Further, this study also demonstrates the specific role and importance of the hospitality industry in addressing a contemporary social problem in the form of seniors’ loneliness.

This study aims to investigate low-carbon footprint travel choices, considering both destination attributes and climate change perceptions, and examine the impacts of nudging (a communication tool to alter individuals’ choices in a predictable way) on tourists’ preferences for carbon mitigation in destinations.

A discrete choice experiment questionnaire was administered to a sample of 958 Hong Kong respondents. Hybrid choice modeling was used to examine the respondents’ preferences for destination attributes and to explain preference heterogeneity using tourists’ climate change perceptions. The respondents’ willingness to pay for the destination attributes was also calculated to measure the monetary value of the attributes.

Destination type, carbon emissions and travel cost had significant effects on tourists’ choices of destination. Nudging increased tourists’ preference for low-carbon footprint choices. Tourists with higher climate change perceptions were more likely than others to select low-carbon destinations with carbon offset projects.

The findings of this study provide an impetus for destination management organizations to support local carbon offset projects, implement policies that mitigate carbon emissions and develop sustainable tourism to fulfill tourists’ demand for low-carbon footprint travel choices. Based on the findings, policymakers could promote sustainable tourism by publishing relevant climate change information on social media.

This study addressed a gap in the literature on tourist travel choice by considering carbon emission-related attributes and climate change perceptions and by confirming the role of nudging in increasing the choice of low-carbon destinations.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of extrinsic cues on wine consumer’s willingness to pay (WTP) based on a blind tasting experiment conducted in Hong Kong.

Using data from a three-stage blind wine tasting experiment, the authors examine how an average consumer’s WTP for a bottle of wine changes as a result of knowing prior to tasting extrinsic information such as the country of origin or grape variety of an otherwise identical product.

The findings of this study align with previous research that finds subjective utility experienced by tasters can be significantly influenced by the belief or information given prior to the tasting. Sub-group analysis using a stratified sample based on the frequency of wine consumption and the wine taster’s prior experience with wine (grouped into expert and novice categories) suggests that it is the novice consumers that have a stronger response to the pre-tasting knowledge when evaluating wine. Experienced wine consumers, on the other hand, do not seem to respond strongly to the pre-tasting knowledge of the extrinsic attributes in their evaluation of wine.

The studies of taste preference and role of extrinsic characteristics in wine evaluation and consumption in the rapidly growing Asian market is increasingly important for the wine industry. The evidence from this study suggests the importance for producers and marketers to consider consumer heterogeneity and product differentiation when pricing and distributing their wine.

This paper aims to investigate how different types of idiosyncratic deals (i-deals) in the hospitality industry enhance occupational well-being (OWB) through organization-based self-esteem (OBSE).

In 2019, 679 questionnaires were distributed to middle- and high-level managerial staff who had worked in high-end hotels in China for at least 1 year, and 642 valid responses were collected. The survey data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Follow-up interviews were conducted with 20 hotel managers to verify and lend additional support to the survey findings.

Both task i-deals and career and incentives i-deals positively affected OBSE and OWB, whereas flexibility i-deals negatively affected OBSE. OBSE positively affected OWB, thereby mediating the relationships between the three types of i-deals and OWB.

This study is groundbreaking in its exploration of how various i-deals contribute to OWB through OBSE among middle- and high-level managerial staff. The findings provide initial evidence of the links between i deals, OBSE and OWB and demonstrate how i-deals can address the practical problem of the shortage and loss of competent operational and administrative talent in the hospitality industry.