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Article
Publication date: 19 February 2024

Joseph David, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, Mohd Asri Mohd Noor and Zainizam Zakariya

Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil rent influence Nigeria’s economic performance during the 1996–2021 period.

Design/methodology/approach

Various estimation techniques were used. These include the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR) estimators and the Toda–Yamamoto causality.

Findings

The bounds testing results provide evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the variables. In addition, the results of the ARDL, DOLS, CCR and FMOLS estimators demonstrate that oil rent and corruption have a significant positive impact on growth. Further, the results indicate that human capital and financial development enhance economic growth, whereas domestic investment and unemployment rates slow down long-term growth. Additionally, the causality test results illustrate the presence of a one-way causality from oil rent to economic growth and a bi-directional causal relationship between corruption and economic growth.

Originality/value

Existing studies focused on the effects of either oil rent or corruption on growth in Nigeria. Little attention has been paid to the exploration of how the rent from oil and the pervasiveness of corruption contribute to the performance of the Nigerian economy. Based on the outcome of this study, strategies and policies geared towards reducing oil dependence and the pervasiveness of corruption, enhancing human capital and financial development and reducing unemployment are recommended.

Details

Journal of Money Laundering Control, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1368-5201

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 November 2023

Mohammad Rifat Rahman, Md. Mufidur Rahman, Athkia Subat and Tanzika Imam Tarin

This study empirically aims to examine the relationship between Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry growth and macroeconomic indicators such as the inflation rate, gross domestic…

Abstract

Purpose

This study empirically aims to examine the relationship between Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry growth and macroeconomic indicators such as the inflation rate, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, exchange rate and export growth through the long- and short-run relationship.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the time series data from 1986 to 2020, this study was developed based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework for co-integration. In contrast, the Toda–Yamamoto Granger Causality approach was also used for finding the direction of causality.

Findings

This study used the ARDL bounds test, which found strong co-integration among the variables, indicating a long-term relationship between them. In the long run, inflation, exchange rate and export growth significantly positively influence the pharmaceutical industry’s growth. Surprisingly, an FDI inflow has a negative impact. In the short term, the exchange rate and GDP growth were found to influence the growth of the pharmaceutical industry positively. Bidirectional causality between the growth of the pharmaceutical industry and the exchange rate was also identified using the Granger causality approach.

Research limitations/implications

This paper emphasizes developing the policy as well as making concrete decisions regarding the development of the pharmaceutical industry and economic development in Bangladesh. The results also highlight the necessity for strategic macroeconomic management to support this sector’s long-term development and global competitiveness.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is conducted to identify the short- and long-run relationship of pharmaceutical industry development with the economic indicators and progress, where no study has been found on this dimension.

Details

International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6123

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 October 2023

Md. Saiful Islam and Abul Kalam Azad

Personal remittance and ready-made garments (RMG) export incomes have emerged as the largest source of foreign income for Bangladesh's economy. The study investigates their impact…

Abstract

Purpose

Personal remittance and ready-made garments (RMG) export incomes have emerged as the largest source of foreign income for Bangladesh's economy. The study investigates their impact on income inequality and gross domestic product (GDP) as a control variable, using time-series yearly data from 1983 to 2018.

Design/methodology/approach

It employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation and the Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) causality approach. The ARDL estimation outcomes confirm a long-run association among the above variables and validate the autoregressive characteristic of the model.

Findings

Personal remittances positively contribute to reducing the income gap among the people of the society and declining income inequality. In contrast, RMG export income and economic growth contribute to further income inequality. The T-Y causality analysis follows the ARDL estimation outcomes and authenticates their robustness. It reveals a feedback relationship between remittance inflow and the Gini coefficient, unidirectional causalities from RMG export income to income inequality and economic growth to income inequality.

Research limitations/implications

The finding has important policy implications to limit the income gaps between low and high-income groups by channeling incremental income to the lower-income group people. The policymakers may facilitate further international migration to attract further remittances and may upgrade the minimum wage of the RMG workers.

Originality/value

The study is original. As far as the authors' knowledge goes, this is a maiden attempt to investigate the impact of personal remittances and RMG export income on income disparity in the case of Bangladesh.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Steven D. Silver

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in…

Abstract

Purpose

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.

Design/methodology/approach

We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.

Findings

In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.

Research limitations/implications

Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.

Practical implications

Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.

Originality/value

This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Niharika Mehta, Seema Gupta and Shipra Maitra

Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is…

Abstract

Purpose

Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is gaining importance because other sources of raising finance such as External Commercial Borrowing and foreign currency convertible bonds have been banned in the Indian real estate sector. Therefore, the objective of the study is to explore the determinants attracting foreign direct investment in real estate and to assess the impact of those variables on foreign direct investments in real estate.

Design/methodology/approach

Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model along with variance decomposition and impulse response function are employed to understand the nexus of the relationship between various macroeconomic variables and foreign direct investment in real estate.

Findings

The results indicate that infrastructure, GDP and tourism act as drivers of foreign direct investment in real estate. However, interest rates act as a barrier.

Originality/value

This article aimed at exploring factors attracting FDIRE along with estimating the impact of identified variables on FDI in real estate. Unlike other studies, this study considers FDI in real estate instead of foreign real estate investments.

Details

Property Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2023

Ishfaq Nazir Khanday, Md. Tarique, Inayat Ullah Wani and Muzffar Hussain Dar

The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in Indian context over the period from 1980 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

First nonlinearity test by Brooks et al. (1999) is applied to ascertain the nonlinear behavior of the variables used. Once the nonlinear behavior of variables is confirmed, asymmetric and nonlinear unit root tests by Kapetanios and Shin (2008) are applied to check for the order of integration of selected variables. Next, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is employed to analyze the asymmetric Cointegration. Finally, Hatemi-j- asymmetric causality tests is applied to work out the direction of asymmetric causality.

Findings

The empirical findings document the existence of asymmetries in the short-run as well as long-run between poverty and financial development. The asymmetry reveals that negative financial development shocks leave a more profound impact on poverty alleviation than their positive equivalents. The findings of Wald's test also confirm the presence of asymmetric Cointegration. The asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers used to examine the behavior of asymmetries and adjustments with respect to time lend credence to the results calculated using NARDL estimator. This result exhibits the robustness of the model. Furthermore, the result emanating from recently introduced asymmetric causality test reveals a unidirectional asymmetric causality between negative shocks in financial development and poverty. The findings of the present study necessitate the need for investigating asymmetric and nonlinear effects in finance–poverty nexus, which existent literature has completely neglected, in order to have relevant policy conclusions.

Research limitations/implications

The study used “Per capita consumption expenditure” as a measure for poverty due to lack of continuous time series data on headcount ratio. In future, researchers can extend this study by incorporating headcount ratio as a measure of poverty in their respective works. There is further scope of research on this issue by finding out the impact of formal and informal sources of credit on poverty separately. A panel data study for developing countries over a period of time could further confirm/negate the findings of the present study.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge none of the studies in Indian context has scrutinized asymmetric and nonlinear impact of financial development on poverty. To dredge up asymmetric structures at work, the authors have used the highly celebrated NARDL estimator. To enrich the existent body of knowledge along the lines of asymmetric (nonlinear) linkages, the authors have also used recently introduced asymmetric causality test by Hatemi-j-(2012) to find out the direction asymmetric causality.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 February 2024

Wenbo Ma, Kai Li, Wei-Fong Pan and Xinjie Wang

The purpose of this paper is to construct an index for systemic risk in China.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to construct an index for systemic risk in China.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper develops a systemic risk index for China (SRIC) using textual information from 26 leading newspapers in China. Our index measures the systematic risk from 21 topics relating to China’s economy and provides narratives of the sources of systemic risk.

Findings

SRIC effectively predicts changes in GDP, aggregate financing to the real economy and the purchasing managers’ index. Moreover, SRIC explains several other commonly used macroeconomic indicators. Our risk measure provides a helpful monitoring tool for policymakers to manage systemic risk.

Originality/value

The paper construct an index of systemic risk based on the information extracted from newspaper articles. This approach is new to the literature.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 July 2022

Muhammad Ahad, Saqib Farid and Zaheer Anwer

In the presence of informal sector in the country, designing an energy policy and the pursuit of higher economic growth become challenging for emerging economies. These economies…

Abstract

Purpose

In the presence of informal sector in the country, designing an energy policy and the pursuit of higher economic growth become challenging for emerging economies. These economies are usually resource starved, and the presence of underground economy leads to faulty estimates of energy demand. The authors explore the energy–growth nexus in the presence of underground economy for Pakistan, an emerging economy host to large informal sector and facing recurring energy crises.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors evaluate the impact of underground economy on energy demand in the presence of explanatory variables, including official gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment and financial development. The authors first assess the influence of official economy on the consumption of energy. The authors investigate how energy consumption is influenced solely by underground economy. Finally, the authors evaluate the impact of true GDP on the energy consumption. The authors employ combined cointegration method of Bayer and Hanck (2013) and then apply vector error correction model.

Findings

The results reveal that official GDP, underground economy and true GDP positively and significantly affect energy consumption in both short and long run. Similarly, financial development as well as foreign direct investment enhance energy consumption. The authors find unidirectional causality between energy consumption and official GDP variables (OGDP → EC), underground economy (UE → EC) and true GDP variables (TGDP → EC) in the long run. The authors observe bidirectional causality in the short run between energy consumption and official GDP (OGDP ↔ EC) and true GDP (TGDP ↔ EC).

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, no study examines the causal relationship of energy consumption and underground economy. Overall, the findings assist policymakers to consider and implement different energy-related policies considering the significant role of underground economy for energy consumption in Pakistan.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 November 2023

Malika Neifar, Amira Ghorbel and Kawthar Bouaziz

This study attempts to come in help for Morocco by investigating rigorously the linkage between environmental degradation, measured by ecological footprint (EF), and the gross…

Abstract

Purpose

This study attempts to come in help for Morocco by investigating rigorously the linkage between environmental degradation, measured by ecological footprint (EF), and the gross domestic product growth (EG), the human capital (HC) index and the natural resources (NR) depletion over the period of 1980:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The paper examines the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the Moroccan context.

Design/methodology/approach

Unlike previous studies, which are based only on the autoregressif dynamic linear (ARDL) model, this paper investigates two recent models: the novel DYNARDL simulation approach and the Kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS) technics and uses in addition the frequency domain causality (FDC) test.

Findings

Models output say a significant and negative association between HC and the EF and a significant and positive interplay between economic growth and environmental quality in the long term. In the short term, findings reveal a significant and negative association between NR and the EF. Based on the FDC test, results conclude about a unidirectional causality from NR to the EF in short-, medium-, and long-term. Moreover, results validate the EKC hypothesis for the Moroccan environment sustainability.

Originality/value

In this study, the researchers use the “ecological footprint” as dependent variable to obtain more accurate and comprehensive assessment of environmental deterioration. Based on time series data investigations, this study is the first paper, which validates the EKC hypothesis and develops important policy implications for Morocco context to achieve sustainable development targets.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2023

Michael O'Neill and Gulasekaran Rajaguru

The authors analyse six actively traded VIX Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) including 1x long, −1x inverse and 2x leveraged products. The authors assess their impact on the VIX…

1051

Abstract

Purpose

The authors analyse six actively traded VIX Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) including 1x long, −1x inverse and 2x leveraged products. The authors assess their impact on the VIX Futures index benchmark.

Design/methodology/approach

Long-run causal relations between daily price movements in ETPs and futures are established, and the impact of rebalancing activity of leveraged and inverse ETPs evidenced through causal relations in the last 30 min of daily trading.

Findings

High frequency lead lag relations are observed, demonstrating opportunities for arbitrage, although these tend to be short-lived and only material in times of market dislocation.

Originality/value

The causal relations between VXX and VIX Futures are well established with leads and lags generally found to be short-lived and arbitrage relations holding. The authors go further to capture 1x long, −1x inverse as well as 2x leveraged ETNs and the corresponding ETFs, to give a broad representation across the ETP market. The authors establish causal relations between inverse and leveraged products where causal relations are not yet documented.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. 46 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

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