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1 – 10 of over 6000Abstract
Purpose
In order to more accurately predict the dynamics of the e-commerce market and increase the comprehensive value of the circular e-commerce industry, proposes to use Grey system theory to analyze the circular economy of the e-commerce market.
Design/methodology/approach
Construct a Grey system theory model, analyze the big data of e-commerce and circular economy of the e-commerce market and predict the development potential of China's e-commerce market.
Findings
The results show that the Grey system theory model can play an important role in the data analysis of circular economy of the e-commerce market.
Originality/value
Use Grey model to analyze e-commerce data, discover e-commerce market rules and problems and then optimize e-commerce market.
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Keywords
Bingjun Li, Shuhua Zhang, Wenyan Li and Yifan Zhang
Grey modeling technique is an important element of grey system theory, and academic articles applied to agricultural science research have been published since 1985, proving the…
Abstract
Purpose
Grey modeling technique is an important element of grey system theory, and academic articles applied to agricultural science research have been published since 1985, proving the broad applicability and effectiveness of the technique from different aspects and providing a new means to solve agricultural science problems. The analysis of the connotation and trend of the application of grey modeling technique in agricultural science research contributes to the enrichment of grey technique and the development of agricultural science in multiple dimensions.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the relevant literature selected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the Web of Science, SpiScholar and other databases in the past 37 years (1985–2021), this paper firstly applied the bibliometric method to quantitatively visualize and systematically analyze the trend of publication, productive author, productive institution, and highly cited literature. Then, the literature is combed by the application of different grey modeling techniques in agricultural science research, and the literature research progress is systematically analyzed.
Findings
The results show that grey model technology has broad prospects in the field of agricultural science research. Agricultural universities and research institutes are the main research forces in the application of grey model technology in agricultural science research, and have certain inheritance. The application of grey model technology in agricultural science research has wide applicability and precise practicability.
Originality/value
By analyzing and summarizing the application trend of grey model technology in agricultural science research, the research hotspot, research frontier and valuable research directions of grey model technology in agricultural science research can be more clearly grasped.
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Keywords
The purpose of this paper is to establish a random simulation method to compare the forecasting performance between grey prediction models, and between grey model and other kinds…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to establish a random simulation method to compare the forecasting performance between grey prediction models, and between grey model and other kinds of prediction models. Then, the different performance of three grey models and linear regression prediction model is studied, based on the proposed method.
Design/methodology/approach
A random simulation method was proposed to test the modelling accuracy of grey prediction model. This method was enlightened by Monte Carlo simulation method. It regarded a class of sequences as population, and selected a large sample from population though random sampling. Then, sample sequences were modeled by grey prediction model. Through modeling error calculation, the average error of grey model for the sample was obtained. Finally, the grey model accuracy for this kind of problem was acquired by statistical inference testing model. Through the statistical significant test method, the modeling accuracy of grey models for the same problem can be compared. Also, accuracy difference between grey prediction model and regression analysis, support vector machine, neural network, and other forecasting methods can be also compared.
Findings
Though random simulation experiments, the following conclusion was obtained. First, grey model can be applied to the long sequence whose growth rate was less than 20 per cent, and the short sequence whose growth rate was less than 50 per cent. Second, GM(1,1) cannot be applied to a long sequence with high growth. Third, growth rate was a more important factor than growth length on modeling accuracy of GM(1,1). Fourth, when the sequence length was short, accuracy of GM(1,1) model was higher than linear regression. While the length of the sequence was more than 15, and the growth rate in [0‐10 per cent], two kinds of modeling error was not significantly different.
Practical implications
The method proposed in the paper can be used to compare the performance of different prediction models, and to select appropriate model for a prediction problem.
Originality/value
The paper succeeded in establishing an accuracy test method for grey models and other prediction models. It will standardize the grey modelling and contribute to application of grey models.
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Keywords
Li Xuemei, Yun Cao, Junjie Wang, Yaoguo Dang and Yin Kedong
Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey…
Abstract
Purpose
Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey systems in marine economics is gaining importance. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and review literature on grey models, providing new directions in their application in the marine economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper organized seminal studies on grey systems published by Chinese core journal database – CNKI, Web of Science and Elsevier from 1982 to 2018. After searching the aforementioned database for the said duration, the authors used the CiteSpace visualization tools to analyze them.
Findings
The authors sorted the studies according to their countries/regions, institutions, keywords and categories using the CiteSpace tool; analyzed current research characteristics on grey models; and discussed their possible applications in marine businesses, economy, scientific research and education, marine environment and disasters. Finally, the authors pointed out the development trend of grey models.
Originality/value
Although researches are combining grey theory with fractals, neural networks, fuzzy theory and other methods, the applications, in terms of scope, have still not met the demand. With the increasingly in-depth research in marine economics and management, international marine economic research has entered a new period of development. Grey theory will certainly attract scholars’ attention, and its role in marine economy and management will gain considerable significance.
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Wenhao Zhou, Hailin Li, Hufeng Li, Liping Zhang and Weibin Lin
Given the regional heterogeneity of economic development, electricity consumption in various regions exhibits a discrepant growth pattern. The purpose of this study is to…
Abstract
Purpose
Given the regional heterogeneity of economic development, electricity consumption in various regions exhibits a discrepant growth pattern. The purpose of this study is to construct a grey system forecasting model with intelligent parameters for predicting provincial electricity consumption in China.
Design/methodology/approach
First, parameter optimization and structural expansion are simultaneously integrated into a unified grey system prediction framework, enhancing its adaptive capabilities. Second, by setting the minimum simulation percentage error as the optimization goal, the authors apply the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to search for the optimal grey generation order and background value coefficient. Third, to assess the performance across diverse power consumption systems, the authors use two electricity consumption cases and select eight other benchmark models to analyze the simulation and prediction errors. Further, the authors conduct simulations and trend predictions using data from all 31 provinces in China, analyzing and predicting the development trends in electricity consumption for each province from 2021 to 2026.
Findings
The study identifies significant heterogeneity in the development trends of electricity consumption systems among diverse provinces in China. The grey prediction model, optimized with multiple intelligent parameters, demonstrates superior adaptability and dynamic adjustment capabilities compared to traditional fixed-parameter models. Outperforming benchmark models across various evaluation indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), average percentage error and Theil’s index, the new model establishes its robustness in predicting electricity system behavior.
Originality/value
Acknowledging the limitations of traditional grey prediction models in capturing diverse growth patterns under fixed-generation orders, single structures and unadjustable background values, this study proposes a fractional grey intelligent prediction model with multiple parameter optimization. By incorporating multiple parameter optimizations and structure expansion, it substantiates the model’s superiority in forecasting provincial electricity consumption.
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Keywords
Chao Xia, Bo Zeng and Yingjie Yang
Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between…
Abstract
Purpose
Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between their physical properties, which in turn affects the stability and reliability of the model performance.
Design/methodology/approach
A novel multivariable grey prediction model is constructed with different background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables, and a one-to-one correspondence between the variables and the background-value coefficients to improve the smoothing effect of the background-value coefficients on the sequences. Furthermore, the fractional order accumulating operator is introduced to the new model weaken the randomness of the raw sequence. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to optimize the background-value coefficients and the order of the model to improve model performance.
Findings
The new model structure has good variability and compatibility, which can achieve compatibility with current mainstream grey prediction models. The performance of the new model is compared and analyzed with three typical cases, and the results show that the new model outperforms the other two similar grey prediction models.
Originality/value
This study has positive implications for enriching the method system of multivariable grey prediction model.
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Keywords
Pingping Xiong, Zhiqing He, Shiting Chen and Mao Peng
In recent years, domestic smog has become increasingly frequent and the adverse effects of smog have increasingly become the focus of public attention. It is a way to analyze such…
Abstract
Purpose
In recent years, domestic smog has become increasingly frequent and the adverse effects of smog have increasingly become the focus of public attention. It is a way to analyze such problems and provide solutions by mathematical methods.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper establishes a new gray model (GM) (1,N) prediction model based on the new kernel and degree of grayness sequences under the case that the interval gray number distribution information is known. First, the new kernel and degree of grayness sequences of the interval gray number sequence are calculated using the reconstruction definition of the kernel and degree of grayness. Then, the GM(1,N) model is formed based on the above new sequences to simulate and predict the kernel and degree of the grayness of the interval gray number sequence. Finally, the upper and lower bounds of the interval gray number are deduced based on the calculation formulas of the kernel and degree of grayness.
Findings
To verify further the practical significance of the model proposed in this paper, the authors apply the model to the simulation and prediction of smog. Compared with the traditional GM(1,N) model, the new GM(1,N) prediction model established in this paper has better prediction effect and accuracy.
Originality/value
This paper improves the traditional GM(1,N) prediction model and establishes a new GM(1,N) prediction model in the case of the known distribution information of the interval gray number of the smog pollutants concentrations data.
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Keywords
Jie Cui, Naiming Xie, Hongyan Ma, Hong liang Hu, Zhengya Yang and Chaoqing Yuan
– The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of derived grey verhulst prediction model with multiplication transformation and reduce its modeling complexity.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of derived grey verhulst prediction model with multiplication transformation and reduce its modeling complexity.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper discussed the parameter characteristics of grey derived verhulst model under multiple transformation, and demonstrated its effect on its simulative value and predictive value by investigating the multiple transformation acting on the raw data sequence of this grey model. The parameter characteristics of this model under multiple transformations and its effect of the simulation value and forecasting value are analyzed by studying the properties of multiply transformation of this model.
Findings
The research finding shows that the modeling accuracy of derived grey verhulst model is in no relation to multiple transformations.
Practical implications
The above results imply that the data level can be reduced; the process of building derived grey verhulst model can be simplified; but the simulative and predictive accuracy of this model remain unchanged.
Originality/value
The paper succeeds in realising the properties of derived grey verhulst model by using the method of multiplication transformation, which is helpful to understand the modeling mechanism and expand the application range of derived grey verhulst model.
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Keywords
Huang Chang Mei, Shen Wei Hua and Xiao Xiao Cong
The paper attempts to establish GM(1,1) grey prediction model group for the top three Olympic track and field sports performance, and to predict the 30th London Olympic track and…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper attempts to establish GM(1,1) grey prediction model group for the top three Olympic track and field sports performance, and to predict the 30th London Olympic track and field results and its tendency using grey systems theory.
Design/methodology/approach
Athletics sports achievements are influenced by many factors, such as the physical quality, athletes individual growth cycle, and injuring or retirement of excellent athletes, the outstanding performance of some athletes, the using of high‐tech sports training instrument, the implementation plan of scientific training guidance, the introduction of advanced technology, facilities and improvement, and so on. Those aspects can make the match result uncertain, which are running in a uncertain and continually changing environment, so sports achievements have obviously grey features. Combined with grey modeling methods, and aimed at the top three Olympic track and field sports performance, this paper established GM (1,1) grey prediction model group and analysed the trend of Olympic track and field. And in the end of the paper, the 30th Olympic men's and women's the top three athletic achievements prediction intervals are also predicted.
Findings
The results show that forecasting model group has high‐precision. In the 46 champions prediction models, three models have the forecast accuracy of 100 percent; 27 models' forecast accuracy are greater than 99.5 percent, and the rest of the models forecast accuracy are greater than 98.58 percent. In the 46 silver medalists prediction models, five models have the forecast accuracy of 100 percent; 33 models' forecast accuracy are greater than 99.5 percent and the rest of the models' forecast accuracy is greater than 98.48 percent. In the 46 bronze medalist prediction models, four models have the forecast accuracy of 100 percent; 25 models' forecast accuracy is greater than 99.5 percent and the rest of the models forecast accuracy is greater than 98.76 percent. The essay deeply analyzes the top three achievements' trend of Olympic Games Track and field. In the end, the paper predicts the 30th Olympic track and field results.
Practical implications
The method exposed in the paper can be used for the short‐term or long‐term prediction of sports scores metering in international competition (such as track and field, swimming, rowing, etc.), and also for personal athletic performance prediction.
Originality/value
The paper succeeds in realising both grey prediction model group for the top three Olympic track and field performance in all projects, and prediction of the 30th London Olympic track and field results by using the newest developed theories: grey systems theory.
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Keywords
Ye Li, Sandang Guo and Juan Li
The purpose of this paper is to construct a prediction model of three-parameter interval grey number based on kernel and double information domains to expand the modeling object…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to construct a prediction model of three-parameter interval grey number based on kernel and double information domains to expand the modeling object of grey prediction model from interval grey number to three-parameter interval grey number.
Design/methodology/approach
First, the study decomposes the grey valued interval into upper and lower cells with the “center of gravity” as the dividing point and defines the upper and lower information domains of the three-parameter interval grey number. Second, it calculates the kernel, the upper and lower information domains of the three-parameter interval grey number. Then, it constructs the prediction model for kernel sequence and upper and lower information domain sequences, respectively. By deducing the time response expressions of “center of gravity”, lower and upper limits of three-parameter interval grey number, a prediction model of three-parameter interval grey number based on kernel and double information domains is obtained.
Findings
This paper provides a prediction model of three-parameter interval grey number based on kernel and double information domains, and the example analysis shows that the method proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy and practicality.
Practical implications
In this paper, the modeling object of grey prediction model is extended to the three-parameter interval grey number, so it can be used for the prediction of uncertainty problems, such as stock changing trend, temperature and so on.
Originality/value
By decomposing the grey valued interval into upper and lower cells with the “center of gravity” as the dividing point, gives the definition of upper and lower information domains and then obtains a new method for whitening the three-parameter interval grey number.
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