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Article
Publication date: 28 June 2024

CT Vidya, Srividhya M. and Ujjwal D.

The purpose of this study is to examine the structure of the international fossil fuel trade network (IFFTN) and assess its effects on CO2 emissions and global trade patterns

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the structure of the international fossil fuel trade network (IFFTN) and assess its effects on CO2 emissions and global trade patterns. This research integrates complex network theory with econometric analysis to explore the dynamics of fossil fuel trade and its implications for environmental quality across various countries. Specifically, the study analyses the roles of different countries within this global network, examines the relationship between trade volumes and environmental impacts and evaluates how advancements in renewable energy generation could mitigate these effects. Through this comprehensive examination, the study seeks to provide an in-depth understanding of the trade-environment nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses data on international fossil fuel trade from 2005 to 2020, which includes 74 countries categorized as high-income, low-income and Asian economies based on their roles in the global market. This research constructs the IFFTN, where countries are depicted as nodes and trade links as edges. The authors analyse network parameters, such as degree, density and clustering coefficient, along with trade metrics like strength and centrality. These parameters are integrated into a panel fixed effects model, with the robustness of the findings confirmed through dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) analysis.

Findings

The study finds that the dynamic fossil fuel trade network includes key players such as the USA, China, France, India, the Netherlands and South Korea. It demonstrates increased connectivity and dependence among these countries, directly correlating with higher CO2 emissions. However, this correlation is mitigated by the adoption of renewable energy, particularly in Asia and high-income countries. The impact on environmental quality is mediated through scale, technique and composition effects, suggesting significant environmental improvements through enhanced industry structure, technological progress and economies of scale.

Research limitations/implications

This study recognizes several limitations. First, the categorization of countries into Asian economies, low-income and high-income groups may oversimplify the intricate effects of economic status on environmental impacts. Second, focusing primarily on per capita CO2 emissions may neglect other critical environmental indicators. Future research should consider examining regional variations and including a wider range of environmental metrics. This approach would offer a more detailed perspective on the nuanced interactions between economic development and environmental sustainability, enhancing the depth and applicability of the findings.

Practical implications

To address the challenges of the IFFTN and CO2 emissions, several practical policy measures are recommended. Governments should enhance international cooperation by establishing global platforms for sharing best practices and initiating technology transfer agreements to accelerate the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. Additionally, a phased transition towards more sustainable energy sources is crucial, involving increased investment in the renewable energy sector alongside incentives for adopting green technologies. On the trade front, governments should modify trade partnerships to address congestion externalities, fostering a shift towards more sustainable and environmentally friendly trade practices.

Social implications

The social implications of the IFFTN are profound. As global reliance on fossil fuels continues, communities face heightened health risks due to increased pollution. Transitioning to renewable energy can alleviate these health concerns and the creation of green technologies, enhancing social well-being. Moreover, equitable access to energy-efficient solutions can reduce energy poverty, particularly in low-income countries, fostering greater societal resilience and inclusivity.

Originality/value

This study offers a pioneering examination of the trade-energy nexus across 74 countries, using complex network models to analyse diverse economic settings, particularly in Asian economies dominated by non-renewable energy. It identifies key market players and assesses their impact on dynamics such as congestion and market power. Additionally, the study explores the positive effects of renewable energy capacity on these relationships, highlighting its crucial role in driving sustainable energy transitions and enhancing the understanding of indirect trade-environment interactions.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 July 2024

Imran-ur-Rahman Imran-ur-Rahman, Mohsin Shafi, Muhammad Ashraf Fauzi and Enitilina Fetuu

This article examines the concepts of “deglobalization” and “decoupling” from the perspectives of developing and developed nations. It also assesses the short-term impacts of…

Abstract

Purpose

This article examines the concepts of “deglobalization” and “decoupling” from the perspectives of developing and developed nations. It also assesses the short-term impacts of globalization, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and predicts the long-term effects on global trade and cooperation between nations.

Design/methodology/approach

Panel data from 85 countries (2000–2022) were utilized. Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) regression analysis was conducted to analyze pre- and post-COVID-19 globalization levels. The analysis focuses on trade patterns and trends, specifically comparing the effects on developing and developed nations.

Findings

First, there was a slight decline in global trade in 2020 due to COVID-19, followed by recovery in 2021–2022. Second, developing nations experienced more significant trade declines than did developed nations. Third, while US? China trade decreased slightly, China-India and US-India trade increased during the pandemic. These findings suggest that while there may be short-term disruptions, long-term trends indicate resilience in global trade patterns, with shifts in output and new partnerships emerging.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the understanding of deglobalization and decoupling by providing empirical evidence on pre- and post-COVID-19 trade patterns. The findings suggest that while globalization may have short-term effects, it is likely to lead to post-pandemic recovery and strengthened cooperation between developing and developed nations. This research also highlights the importance of developing strategies to manage uncertainty and external shocks in global trade, emphasizing the role of lockdown measures, national security considerations, and trade policies in shaping the future of globalization and decoupling.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Muhammad Mohsin Hakeem and Ken-ichi Suzuki

The trade agreements among major trading countries can open new prospects of development and growth for global economy. The policy changes by a major trading country can alter the…

Abstract

The trade agreements among major trading countries can open new prospects of development and growth for global economy. The policy changes by a major trading country can alter the global trade and connection patterns. The trade agreement known as Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was between 12 “Pacific-rim” countries signed earlier in 2016 indicates an upcoming and major policy change for global economy (presidential memorandum to withdraw the United States from TPP was signed in January 2017). The agreement would influence the issues related to “economic growth, employment, innovation, productivity, and competitiveness” of every partner and linked economy. This study illustrates how Asia Pacific’s major countries are interlinked with each other, the important sectors and the strength of connections. The level of interconnectedness might have been transformed within regional trade network because of varying global economic patterns and demand trends. The study focuses on the aspects related to agreement and reduction in tariffs that may change the global trading scenarios and appropriate position for region’s prominent and developing economies after implementation of the agreement.

Article
Publication date: 11 March 2022

Qun Gao, Bin Liu, Jide Sun, Chunlu Liu and Youquan Xu

This paper aims to better understand the linkage between CO2 emitters and industrial consumers. The border-crossing frequency is applied to calculate the average number of steps…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to better understand the linkage between CO2 emitters and industrial consumers. The border-crossing frequency is applied to calculate the average number of steps that a country takes in relation to the CO2 emissions of its construction industry. The maximum border-crossing frequency and declining speed of CO2 transfer are used to reveal the relationship between the length of production chains and the transfer efficiency of construction products.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper maps the CO2 transfer that accompanies global production chains using the frequency of border crossing in the production processes of construction products. As the basic analysis framework, a multi-regional input–output model is adopted to analyse the average border-crossing frequency of CO2 transfer. Additionally, indicators including the maximum border-crossing frequency and declining speed of CO2 transfer are employed. Also, the maximum border-crossing frequency and declining speed of CO2 transfer are used to reveal the relationship between the length of production chains and the transfer efficiency of construction products.

Findings

The results indicate that 85.49% of the CO2 in construction products needs to be processed in at least one country, reflecting that direct trade is the major pattern of transfer of CO2 from primary producers in global construction industries. The maximum border-crossing frequency is 4.88 for 15 economies, meaning that construction products cross the international borders up to 4.88 times before they are absorbed by the final users. The scale of the average border-crossing frequency ranged from 1.16 to 1.87 over 2000–2014, indicating that the original construction products crossed the international borders at least 1.16 times to satisfy the final demand of the consuming countries.

Research limitations/implications

The data from the economic MRIO tables in the WIOD are only available until 2014, which is a limitation for conducting this research in recent years.

Originality/value

The fragmentation of production is not only reshaping global trade patterns, but also leading to the separation of CO2 emitters and final consumers in production chains. A growing number of studies have focussed on the impact of production fragmentation on accounting for regional and national CO2 emissions, but little research has been done at the scale of a specific industry. The major contribution of this paper lies in mapping the CO2 emissions that accompany the production chains of construction products from the perspectives of both magnitude and length. Additionally, this paper is the first to propose using maximum border-crossing frequency and declining speed to analyse the characteristics of global production chains induced by the final demand of major economies for construction products.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 30 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 April 2010

Wei‐Bin Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to examine global monetary economic growth with free trade. It develops a multi‐country monetary growth model with capital accumulation to provide…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine global monetary economic growth with free trade. It develops a multi‐country monetary growth model with capital accumulation to provide some insights into complexity of economic globalization with free trade and financial markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The real aspects of the model is based on the neoclassical growth theory and monetary aspects of the model are based on the money‐in‐utility approach. The behavior of households is based on an alternative approach. The paper shows that the dynamics of the J‐country world economy can be described by 2J‐dimensional differential equations.

Findings

This paper simulates equilibrium and motion of the global economy with three, developed, newly industrializing, and developing countries and Cobb‐Douglas production functions. As the global monetary economic system is unstable, the perfectly competitive world economy may either experience unlimited growth or economic crisis. Because of the choice of the initial conditions and the parameters, the simulation demonstrates a situation of global economic declination. This paper also demonstrates, for instance, that the global economy worsens off as the developed economy reduces its propensity to save or increases its inflation policy.

Social implications

This paper also tries to provide some possible implications of our model for the recent economic crisis. A policy implication of the results is that as global economies with free trade and financial markets are possibly structurally unstable and the global economy may suffer from economic declination, government interventions, and co‐operation among countries are necessary for global sustainable development.

Originality/value

The paper offers insights into the linkage between national monetary policies and global economic growth.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 January 2023

Fan Feng, Ningyuan Jia and Faqin Lin

Considering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food…

1333

Abstract

Purpose

Considering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security.

Findings

First, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity.

Originality/value

This study analyzed the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 24 September 2010

Drusilla K. Brown, Kozo Kiyota and Robert M. Stern

We have used the Michigan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu…

Abstract

We have used the Michigan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U.S.–Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U.S. and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers by the two countries, and global (multilateral) free trade. The U.S. preferential agreements include the FTAs approved by the U.S. Congress with Chile and Singapore in 2003, those signed with Central America, Australia, and Morocco and awaiting Congressional approval in 2004, and prospective FTAs with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Thailand, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The Japanese preferential agreements include the bilateral FTA with Singapore signed in 2002 and prospective FTAs with Chile, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small in the United States and Japan, but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. Data limitations precluded analysis of the welfare effects of the different FTA rules of origin and other discriminatory arrangements.

In comparison with the welfare gains from the U.S. and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States, Japan, and the FTA partners and global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The U.S. and Japan FTAs are based on “hub” and “spoke” arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.

Details

New Developments in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Trade Policy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-142-9

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 October 2021

Javier Mejia and Javier Mejia

This paper aims to offer a unified economic interpretation of the existing evidence on the Manila Galleon. It intends to be an introduction to the Manila Galleon for economists…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to offer a unified economic interpretation of the existing evidence on the Manila Galleon. It intends to be an introduction to the Manila Galleon for economists curious about long-term patterns in global trade, but who are not experts on economic history.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper jointly presents quantitative and qualitative data to analyze in a critical way the existing work on the Manila Galleon. It proposes a conceptual model from the world-systems approach to reflect on the impact of this trade route. Evidence from two case studies, New Granada and Korea, accompany the model.

Findings

The paper finds that the Manila Galleon was only possible because of the temporary coincidence of a quite singular set of international circumstances and favorable local market conditions. The paper also finds that, despite its large effects on the global integration of silver markets, the Manila Galleon was a profoundly asymmetric activity that brought minor consequences to most of the world.

Research limitations/implications

This paper shows the importance of additional studies providing systematic quantitative evidence on the Manila Galleon. The long tradition of an archival collection developed by historians offers a huge potential to this line of research. In addition, studies in regions different from Mexico, the Philippines, Spain and China would contribute to a better understanding of the Manila Galleon’s global consequences.

Practical implications

This paper provides a series of reflections useful to think about the future challenges of global trade. These challenges require understanding the transformations that will come from profound technological change, massive reconfigurations of the geopolitical order and transitions in the long-term cycles of commodities. Because of their rare occurrence, these are forces hardly visible in recent history, making it necessary for the existence of long-term points of reference such as the Manila Galleon.

Originality/value

This paper brings together widespread evidence on the Manila Galleon and provides a unified interpretation of it. This opens the door for audiences who are not experts on the economic history of the period to discuss the topic, allowing them to reflect on its lessons for the modern world.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 10 August 2015

Emily Erikson and Sampsa Samila

This paper uses the case of the English East India Company to consider the impact of colonialization on patterns of trade. The East India Company went through a commercial and a…

Abstract

This paper uses the case of the English East India Company to consider the impact of colonialization on patterns of trade. The East India Company went through a commercial and a colonial period in Asia and therefore provides a rare case in which fixed national effects are held constant while the degree of colonialism varies. We use this variation to consider the impact of colonial institutions on the degree of concentration in overseas trade. We find that the onset of colonialism is linked to increasing inequality in the distribution of traffic across ports. This finding is significant because of the relationship between overseas trade and the potential for long-term economic development: the development trajectories of the individual ports were likely to have been affected by these different rates of trade. Our findings also highlight how the negotiation between political and commercial goals in early modern trade and imperialism produced different macro-structural outcomes for global trade patterns.

Details

Chartering Capitalism: Organizing Markets, States, and Publics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-093-7

Keywords

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