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This paper aims to study the ongoing and emerging technological changes in the global energy sector from the frequently neglected perspective of their potential destructive impact on the Russian economy.

Having reviewed existing global energy forecasts made by reputable multilateral and national government agencies, major energy corporations and specialised consulting firms, the authors noticed that most of them are by and large based on the extrapolation of conventional long-term trends depicting gradual growth of fossil fuels’ demand and catching-up supply. Unlike this approach, the paper focuses on the possible cases when conventional trends are broken, supply–demand imbalances become huge and the situation in the global energy markets is rapidly and dramatically changing with severe consequences for the Russian economy, seriously dependent on fossil fuels exports. Revealing these stress scenarios and major drivers leading to their realisation are in the focus of the research. Based on the Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Values (analytical framework) (STEEPV) approach, the authors start from analysing various combinations of factors capable to launch stress scenarios for the Russian economy. Formulating concrete stress scenarios and assessing their negative impact on the Russian economy constitute the next step of the analysis. In conclusion, the paper underlines the urgency to integrate stress analysis related to global energy trends into the Russian national systems of technology foresight and strategic planning, which are now in the early stages of development.

The analysis of global energy market trends and various combinations of related economic, political, technological and ecological factors allowed to formulate four stress scenarios particularly painful for the Russian economy. They include the currently developing scenario “Collapse of oil prices”, and three potential ones: “Gas abundance”, “Radical de-carbonisation” and “Hydrogen economy”. One of the most important conclusions of the paper is that technology-related drivers are playing the leading role in stress scenario realisation, but it is usually a specific combination of other drivers (interlacing with technology-related factors) that could trigger the launch a particular scenario.

This study’s approach is based on the assumption that Russia’s dependence on hydrocarbons exports as one of the main structural characteristics of the Russian economy will remain intact. However, for the long-term perspective, this assumption might not hold true. So, new research will be needed to review the stress scenarios within the context of radical diversification of the Russian economy.

This paper suggests a number of practical steps aimed at introducing stress analysis as one of the key functions within the energy-related sectoral components of the Russian national systems of technology forecasting and strategic planning.

The novelty of this paper is determined both by the subject of the analysis and approach taken to reveal it. In contrast to most of research in this area, the main focus has been moved from the opportunities and potential benefits of contemporary technology-related global energy shifts to their possible negative impact on the national economy. Another important original feature of the approach is that existing global energy forecasts are used only as a background for core analysis centred around the cases when conventional energy trends are broken.

This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.

Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on Russia. As the trends are validated, an algorithm is proposed to assess the contribution of separate trends to Russian energy exports.

Experimental quantitative scenarios are conducted to assess the prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040 under the given exogenous scenario calculations of the IEA. Factor analysis allows for an assessment of the contribution of separate factors in dynamics of net energy imports into the regional economies. The future prospects for fossil fuels’ exports on regional markets are considered. Priority markets for Russian energy exporters are identified.

The results of the paper may be used by decision-makers for adjustments in the system of government policy or corporate strategy.

The paper provides an algorithm to assess energy export flows to macroregions based upon the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative information. Experimental scenario calculations of the Russian fossil fuels’ exports are provided. Strategic decision-making map is elaborated.

This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products.

Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments.

A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period.

The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.

In the absence of new policies, global trends in energy supply and consumption are unsustainable all around. Today, roughly 2.6 billion people use fuelwood, charcoal, agricultural waste and animal dung to meet most of their daily energy needs for cooking and heating. There are 1.6 billion people in the world without electricity, equal to over a quarter of the world population. The purpose of this paper is to present pro‐poor solutions for addressing the crippling impacts of current global energy use on the world's poorest people.

The paper lays out scenarios for global energy demand and greenhouse‐gas emissions and highlights the impact of these trends on developing countries. Based largely on publications and research from the International Energy Agency, it shows that better targeted subsidies, capacity building, integrated policy approaches and improvements in data collection can help to alleviate the impacts of current energy use on health and the environment.

Decisive action is needed to expand energy access and to arrest the potential impacts of climate change in poor countries. It is demonstrated here that investments in programs that are tailored to promoting development and addressing climate change simultaneously can be successfully deployed.

There is an urgent need for policymakers in rich and poor countries to join together and tackle the global energy and climate challenges, and, as this paper shows, pro‐poor foresight is needed to ensure that these challenges are met in an equitable and sustainable way.

The main purpose of this chapter is to show the correlation of the current consolidated electricity capacity of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with the forecast indicators of electricity consumption to optimize the future energy system. It highlights the main directions of the international cooperation development in the field of hydropower and analyzes the total consumption of hydropower in the EAEU. The study is based on official data provided by international hydropower and renewable energy regulators as well as national professional regulators and statistical offices. Authors predicted total hydropower consumption of the EAEU countries for the coming years using machine learning algorithms and interpreted obtained results by an econometric toolkit. It is shown that the current hydropower capacity level will not cover future consumption, in particular, due to the increasingly growing demand for cheap electricity because of massive digitalization as one of the global pandemic impacts. As a result, the necessity was identified to gradually increasing the available hydropower capacity to balance the situation. In conclusion, it's been proposed potentially possible solutions to optimize the future energy system of the single energy market of the EAEU to achieve the required level of electricity generation from power plants operating on renewable energy sources and, in particular, water resources, taking into account the consequences of Covid-19 in the energy industry.

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the recent Russian Science and Technology Foresight – a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology (S&T) development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation’s competitive advantages. It was organised as a complex project involving dozens of organizations performing particular tasks under the overall coordination by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and more than 2,000 experts in various S&T fields.

Its methodology embraced a set of qualitative and quantitative methods and combined technology push and market pool approaches. For seven S&T areas (information and communication technologies, biotechnologies, medicine and health, new materials and nanotechnologies, rational use of nature, transportation and space systems, energy efficiency and energy saving), the following types of results have been obtained: global trends, national challenges and windows of opportunities; new markets and niches; innovation products and services; prospective technologies and R&D fields (50 thematic groups, over 1,000 items for all areas); assessment of the country’s positions vis-à-vis global leaders; recommendations for S&T and innovation policies.

The paper covers prospective drivers of economic growth and relevant implications for anticipatory evidence-based policy; discussions of national challenges and building a common vision of the future among key stakeholders; the role of Foresight in particular as a communication platform that helps integrating stakeholder interests; strengthening existing and developing new capacities to increase national competitiveness; and to move up along existing and emerging global value chains.

The Russian S&T Foresight, being deeply integrated in the national policy, can be considered as an exemplar tool for “wiring up” the national innovation system (NIS) of an emerging economy with its specific features and problems facing large-scale challenges.

Assesses the global trends in energy production and consumption. Instability in the Middle East and the disintregration of the Soviet Union; the United States′ increasing dependence on imported oil; and the suppressed demand for energy in the Third World as the developing countries become more energy‐intensive, all point to an increase in energy prices in the long term. The environmental impact of energy – global warming – is not just a national problem but a world problem, which will be intensified as the Third World countries, particularly China and India, continue developing. Developed nations must, therefore, set an example by limiting carbon dioxide emissions. The consumption of energy in buildings, transport and power stations must be controlled. Finally, reviews the present Government′s privatization of the gas and electricity industries, which has solved one problem – government interference – but created several others.