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Nonparametric data envelopment analysis is used to determine productivity and efficiency of agricultural and nonagricultural banks categorized into six different asset size groups. An output‐oriented Malmquist index is estimated and decomposed into its components to provide a comparison of performance over the 1981 1991 study period. Results show the primary source of productivity improvements for larger banks of both types has been technical changes or innovations. Small banks of both types have derived competitive strength from increased efficiency gains or catching up with frontier banks. Competitive pressure brought in by restructuring of the agricultural credit market has caused increased volatility in productivity growth, showing negative total factor productivity for the study period.

This paper aims to investigate empirically how broadband has been implemented at the business level and what are the potential adoption benchmarks. Several recent studies have called for the development of frameworks of broadband adoption, particularly at the business level, to help policy makers, communities and businesses with their strategic decision-making process.

This paper opens the discussion by presenting concerns and challenges of Internet adoption. Internet adoption is viewed as the current challenge facing businesses, communities and governments. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) techniques are used to create, analyze and develop Internet adoption models.

Based on the Internet usage data from a number of states across the USA, measurement models are developed using EFA and CFA. The findings indicate that for our sample, a three-factor model is the most appropriate for the representation of Internet adoption in the tourism sector, while a five-factor model can best describe Internet adoption in the sample of manufacturing organizations.

The availability of data on Internet usage at the business/organizational level is one of the main constraints. Industry/community-specific data can also provide valuable insights about the Internet adoption and support the development of industry/community-specific adoption models.

The findings and the employed research method can be used by businesses, communities and government managers and policy makers as benchmarks to examine broadband adoption based on gap-opportunity criteria.

This is the first study that provides Internet adoption models based on an empirical study at the business level. The benefits of broadband Internet have been investigated by many researchers in the past decade. There seems to be a consensus among practitioners and scholars about the role of broadband Internet in gaining competitive advantage. However, there have not been any previous studies that investigate how broadband has been implemented and what the potential adoption benchmarks at the business level are.

The aim of this paper is to describe procedural characteristics of the 4th technology foresight (TF) using search engines to discover emerging issues; analytic framework development to discover future needs; future technologies considering future needs as well as technology development; detailed description of future technology; analytical discussions of Delphi survey results; developing spatial-specific scenarios and illustrations; and examining possible adverse effects of future technologies. Korea performs TF every 5 years to establish science and technology policy and strategies. In the 4th TF, future technologies that might be developed by 2035 were discovered and Delphi survey was conducted to examine current development status, anticipated times of technology development and public use, plans to secure these technologies, etc.

This paper divides procedure employed in the 4th TF into three steps and explains seven characteristics related to its procedure.

Improvement of the TF procedure will increase the reliability and applicability of its results.

This paper consists of original results which include improved procedure and its implication by researchers who participated in the 4th TF. It will provide a useful example for other nations, hoping to introduce TF to set up national science and technology policy.

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

This paper presents strategic alliances as one fundamental tool in the process of constructing the future. The alliances are based on prospective scenarios, within strategic interactions.

The central key is the view of the most probable future as a NASH balance point. This point identifies not only a balance of forces, but also the negotiation limits for each actor and therefore the strategic alliances possible. The alliances, if achieved, create a “super actor”, destabilizing the original balance, and creating a new balance point, and therefore a more likely new future.

This article develops a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a method that the authors call stakeholder cross-impact analysis (SCIA), which is aimed at analyzing how a given set of stakeholders influence one another and also how such stakeholders relate to a given set of issues.

The authors first identify, in the current literature, a lack of analytical tools for assessing mutual influences among stakeholders. The authors then identify cross-impact analysis, a method that was initially developed in the field of futures research, as a suitable method to be applied in the present research. Its application, which the authors call SCIA, is described in detail through a fictitious case.

SCIA permits to assess the direction and the strength of relationships between stakeholders. Furthermore, it allows for the classification of stakeholders based on their level of dependence and influence on others. Also, it is possible to integrate SCIA with social network analysis in order to understand the degree to which stakeholders agree on how issues influence one another, as well as to identify which issues most stakeholders consider to be central and which stakeholders have the most shared opinion on how issues are related.

This method can be used, along with traditional segmentation techniques, by corporate communication and public relations practitioners in order to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the complexity of organizations’ environments.

SCIA represents a much-needed and novel way of understanding the complexity of organizations’ environments.

Using resource dependency theory, the purpose of this paper is to examine what elements in the business environment may be associated with the formation and continuance of cartels.

The authors employ a unique data set of 148 cartel data points from the 1970s to 2008 which have at least one American company involved to quantitatively test causal relationships. The authors also interview key class action anti-trust attorneys for their views and opinions on the impact of these environmental factors on cartel formation and continuance.

The authors find statistically significant relationships between the pursuit and maintenance of industry profits and the dynamism in the industry, and illegal behavior as represented through price fixing by business cartels. The authors find that in the attorneys’ opinion, it is also the pursuit of individual corporate profits and munificence that are associated with these cartels.

This research furthers the understanding of organizational deviance which is critical given its impact on organizations, individuals, regulators, law enforcement, and the general public.

This research is a first step in considering cartel activity in a way that encompasses external influences in a new and innovative manner and as a tool to help researchers and practitioners better understand how organizational deviance, as manifested through illegal corporate activity, can be anticipated, identified, and prevented.

The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize the positive and negative impacts of tourism on the process of tourism growth at a national scale in Iran, by taking into account the reviews of previous studies, views of experts and structural analysis.

In this investigation, structural analysis technique has been used to identify the correlation between variables by using mix method data analysis. By using cross-impact analysis (N × N integer matrix) in the form of the Micmac method, the economic, sociocultural and environmental factors have been evaluated.

The results of the distribution of factors in the coordinate axes and the graphs between them indicate their features, and for reaching a sustainable system of tourism development, at first, priority should be given to the negative influential factors, especially the environmental fields, and then the focus should be on the decrease of the dual and risk variables as they cannot be anticipated.

For the rapid growth of tourism in many countries, governments ensure that policies have been heeded in designing and preparing general plans of the country to understand how the development trend is moving on. In this respect, arisen impacts of tourism system are one of the important issues during the development path and in the field of tourism future. Because of the complexity and broadness of tourism activities, these impacts have also many interconnected dimensions that should also be considered while studying tourism impacts.

The human efforts to be prepared better for the future challenges of natural disasters go back ages. Natural disasters occur when a natural event, such as an earthquake, triggers the social vulnerability. These natural disasters kill thousands of people worldwide annually and cause economic losses in millions of dollars. Moreover, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially, and mega-disasters occur when the need for recovery truly becomes national or international. There are several trends in nature and society, which suggest that this pattern may continue, with mega-disasters occurring more frequently in the future. In the past 100 years, the number of disasters and the number of people affected by these disasters have exponentially up surged. Thus, there is no other way to improve preparedness in a meaningful or diverse future-oriented manner.

This paper focuses on how to design and customize a conceptual foresight model in “disaster risk management” in Iran, and offers an executive model to help decision-makers in disaster management, through which an appropriate practical framework for the implementation of foresight has been developed.

The model has presented a possible framework for implementing a foresight practice within the context of disaster management. This paper particularly addresses different elements of a customized model, developed through a substantial literature review and comparative study for defining the suitable model in the disaster management context. The final model is validated using two rounds of the Delphi method, with the participation of national disaster management experts, practitioners and scientists.

Although the whole model could be used all around the world, the main source of data validating the proposed model is limited to the expert’s opinions in a developing country (I. R. Iran.) and the geographical conditions of Iran are considered as a core of attention in response to natural disasters. Based on the indicators for choosing Delphi participants and experts, only 43 qualified experts are selected to validate the model. The main focus of this research is on natural disasters issues.

This study showed that while there has been a scattered global effort to recognize the increasing uncertainties in diverse disciplines, very little work in academic foresight has been undertaken to identify how it could be implemented. In particular, a series of factors in foresight processes is identified based on the comparative study and some additional elements are added to precisely identify the disaster management context and the most suitable model for national foresight implementation in disaster management.

The main value of this research paper is to clarify the exact relationship between the two interdisciplinary fields; the relationship between the key concepts of “futures studies” and “disaster management” has been thoroughly established. Also, a specific conceptual model for enriching the “pre-foresight” stage and selecting a proper “foresight approach” in “disaster management” is provided. This model has been validated through two rounds of the Delphi method. Finally, a cumulative framework of foresight patterns that includes the new model is presented to be applied in areas especially related to “natural disaster management”.

The purpose of this study was to determine in what ways the competence frameworks analyzed converge or diverge and whether they are similar enough to be considered equivalent.

This study is based on a comparative analysis of competence frameworks describing sustainability education and foresight and futures education.

This study finds that sustainability education and futures and foresight education differ in significant ways in terms of expected outcomes as described by competence frameworks. The two educational fields cannot be considered equivalent. Rather, we find that they are complementary.

This study is based on an analysis of competence frameworks that have been published in peer-reviewed publications. They do not necessarily reflect what is actually practiced in educational environments. Also, competence frameworks may be in circulation that have not been described in scholarly publications and are therefore not included in this study.

The results of this study can be helpful for further refining and developing both sustainability education and futures and foresight education by clarifying the different roles that they play in promoting the skills needed to address long-term challenges in uncertain futures.

The rapid rise in prominence of sustainability education, in particular, but also foresight and futures education, is indicative of current concerns about the future of our planet and the beings that inhabit it. There is a sense that a key role of education should be to contribute to a pursuit of positive futures for all. By clarifying how current educational practices address this need, this study contributes to the overall goal of education.

Sustainability education and foresight and futures education have been regarded as being at least similar enough that implementing one may preclude the necessity for the other. This study shows that there are significant differences between the two as they have been defined in published competence frameworks. In particular, it shows that sustainability education emphasizes the use of anticipatory intelligence for strategic planning, while foresight and futures education emphasize the generation of anticipatory intelligence. The two fields are found to be complementary in that they address different, but equally necessary, skills needed to address long-term challenges.