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1 – 10 of 24Scenario thinkers and operational managers do not find it easy to communicate with each other – this paper discusses ways in which scenarios can be used in the line units of the…
Abstract
Scenario thinkers and operational managers do not find it easy to communicate with each other – this paper discusses ways in which scenarios can be used in the line units of the organization and the role of strategists and corporate planners in making this bridge. To address these issues, this article is divided into two main sections: (1) making the scenario process manager friendly; and (2) a case study illustrating uses of scenarios by operating managers. It concludes with some implications for corporate planners.
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This paper focuses on the role of scenarios in planning research and development (R&D). R&D programs often focus on the technology, which is relatively forecastable. But the…
Abstract
This paper focuses on the role of scenarios in planning research and development (R&D). R&D programs often focus on the technology, which is relatively forecastable. But the products that are the ultimate output of R&D programs will have to succeed a world in which lifestyles and society are changing. By using scenarios to explore alternative views of the future, R&D programs can be designed to anticipate change, to watch for signs of the changes, and to be more robust. The paper describes in some detail an example of using scenarios for an information and communication technology R&D program. The implications for corporate planners are detailed.
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Andrew Curry, Gill Ringland and Laurie Young
The paper explains how scenarios can be used to create alternative models of markets in way that is useful to marketing managers and the product development team.
Abstract
Purpose
The paper explains how scenarios can be used to create alternative models of markets in way that is useful to marketing managers and the product development team.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper outlines the how‐to process for developing and using marketing scenarios.
Findings
The paper finds that marketing scenarios can help leaders improve their understanding of future customer behavior; be used with focus groups to test reactions to different products in varying future contexts; be translated into physical environments that help focus groups to “live” in the future; be useful in developing brand strategy and in testing the sustainability of brands; uncover a wider range of choices than those perceived by competitors, facilitating customer preference and longer‐term relationships and explore uncertainty and can help to anticipate new value propositions.
Practical implications
One of the benefits of shorter‐term scenarios is that rather than pointing marketers towards a range of alternative possible industry futures, they are more likely to steer them towards a range of developing market opportunities. Several of the scenarios are likely to play out at the same time in different parts of the market. This means they can help marketers to identify both the sectors where their offering can be competitive and the sectors where it will flounder.
Originality/value
The paper presents several advantages of using marketing analysis tools to analyze a number of potential futures: for example, to gain a perspective beyond the current ones (timeframe, markets, organizational); and also to provide a framework for a discussion of priorities and assumptions that have all ready been made in the organization's “official future.”
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The purpose of this paper is to show how scenarios of the future can offer “stretch zones” for the imagination. Such scenarios provide several alternative model future worlds for…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to show how scenarios of the future can offer “stretch zones” for the imagination. Such scenarios provide several alternative model future worlds for consideration and exploration by teams seeking breakthrough innovation.
Design/methodology/approach
Two case studies are offered to illustrate the role of scenarios in developing new opportunities for innovative and creative thinking in organizations.
Findings
The paper finds that investigating the constraints and possibilities of these future worlds increases the range of “what we have experienced” and “what is relevant to our future”.
Practical implications
Because scenarios offer a glimpse of what “different” futures are like, an organization's innovators can more readily imaginatively experience buying and selling products, living, commuting, under the particular constraints and opportunities of a number of possible future conditions.
Originality/value
The paper shows how using scenarios to investigate the constraints and possibilities of future worlds exposes decision makers to new opportunities to be creative.
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Patricia Lustig, John Reynolds, Gill Ringland and Richard Walsh
This paper describes the ways in which the next decade will be different from the last. Times are becoming more and more turbulent and a new kind of organisation is needed to…
Abstract
This paper describes the ways in which the next decade will be different from the last. Times are becoming more and more turbulent and a new kind of organisation is needed to survive and thrive in these times ‐ what we call a purposeful self‐renewing organisation (PS‐RO). This, in turn, requires a different style of organisational leadership ‐ leadership as a quality that is dispersed across the organisation not confined solely to the cadre of senior managers listed on an organisational chart.
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A High Level Expert Group (HLEG) was set up to consider the topic of converging technologies and to propose to the European Union how to approach it. But the group soon developed…
Abstract
Purpose
A High Level Expert Group (HLEG) was set up to consider the topic of converging technologies and to propose to the European Union how to approach it. But the group soon developed communications problems. A few members of the group proposed using scenario methodology to develop a common language.
Design/methodology/approach
The HLEG decided that creating four scenarios for Europe in 2020 would provide an explicit framework for discussing the contribution of converging technologies to society and the economy, and thus would ameliorate the communications problems that plagued the group.
Findings
Using scenarios to create alternative worlds allowed different views of desirable and acceptable futures to be set in context. The net result was a useful report presented to the European Commission.
Research limitations
This case study reports on four scenarios for Converging Technologies for the European Knowledge Society (CTEKs) in the year 2020.
Practical implications
Managers of diverse groups could use the same techniques to promote effective communication.
Originality/value
Managing diverse groups – such as networked communities – is becoming an important management skill and so is using scenarios to facilitate communication and learning among them.
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Oliver Sparrow and Gill Ringland
The aim of this paper is to offer practitioners the outline of a unique system to facilitate organizational renewal.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to offer practitioners the outline of a unique system to facilitate organizational renewal.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors are veteran practitioners who have observed and studied best practices in a variety of corporate and governmental settings to create a new renewal methodology. One of the authors is a former Shell Oil Company senior manager. These SAMI researchers offer a system to facilitate organizational renewal.
Findings
While few organizations implement the described methodology, many implement parts: the full effect – a purposeful self‐renewing organization – is only achieved through the combination of the parts.
Research limitations/implications
This article is based on research for the authors' new book, Beyond Crisis: Achieving Renewal in a Turbulent World (Wiley 2010), co‐authored with Patricia Lustig.
Practical implications
This paper provides practitioners with the first blueprint for implementing and managing operations, innovation, and foresight in a purposefully self‐renewing organization.
Originality/value
This is one of the first articles to describe a complete system that analyses a changing business environment and applies the methodology to operations to effectively promote a purposefully self‐renewing organization.
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