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Article
Publication date: 20 November 2020

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Julyara Costa

Since sovereign ratings provided by credit rating agencies (CRAs) are a key determinant of the interest rates a country faces in the international financial market and once…

Abstract

Purpose

Since sovereign ratings provided by credit rating agencies (CRAs) are a key determinant of the interest rates a country faces in the international financial market and once sovereign ratings may have a constraining impact on the ratings assigned to domestic banks or companies, some studies have focused on identifying the determinants of sovereign credit risk assessments provided by CRAs. In particular, this study estimates the effect of fiscal credibility on sovereign risk using four different comprehensive credit rating (CCR) measures obtained from CRAs' announcements and two different fiscal credibility indicators.

Design/methodology/approach

We build comprehensive credit rating (CCR) measures to capture sovereign risk. These measures are calculated using sovereign ratings, the rating outlooks and credit watches issued by the three main credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's and Fitch) for long-term foreign-currency Brazilian bonds. Based on monthly data from 2003 to 2018, we use different econometric estimation techniques in order to provide robust results.

Findings

The results indicate that fiscal credibility exerts both short- and long-run effects on sovereign risk perception, and macroeconomic fundamentals are important long-run determinants.

Practical implications

Since fiscal credibility reflects the government's ability to maintain budgetary balance and sustainable public debt, the government should keep its commitment to responsible fiscal policies so as not to deteriorate expectations formed by financial market experts about the fiscal scenario and, thus, to achieve better credit assessments issued by CRAs with respect to sovereign debt bonds. Sovereign credit rating assessment is a voluntary practice. It is up to the country whether they want to apply for a rating assessment or not. Thus, without a sovereign rating, one must find an alternative to measure the sovereign risk of a country. In this sense, an important practical implication that this study provides is that fiscal credibility can be used as a leading indicator of sovereign risk perceptions obtained from CRAs or even as a proxy for sovereign risk.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to verify how important the expectations of financial market experts in relation to the fiscal effort required to keep public debt at a sustainable level (i.e. fiscal credibility) are to sovereign risk perception of credit rating agencies. In this sense, the study is the first to address this relation, and thus it contributes to the literature that seeks to understand the determinants of sovereign ratings in emerging countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 May 2020

André Filipe Guedes Almeida and Gabriel Caldas Montes

Due to the fact that crime and violence affect the economy and the business environment, and since the economic environment affects entrepreneurs' expectations and therefore their…

Abstract

Purpose

Due to the fact that crime and violence affect the economy and the business environment, and since the economic environment affects entrepreneurs' expectations and therefore their decisions, this study analyzes the effect of both violence and crime on the confidence of entrepreneurs from the state of Rio de Janeiro.

Design/methodology/approach

Making use of time series methodology, the authors provide OLS and GMM estimates for the effects of violence and crime on the business confidence index of entrepreneurs in Rio de Janeiro. The analysis of the Rio de Janeiro case is relevant since Rio de Janeiro is the second state, after São Paulo, with the largest participation in the Brazilian GDP, and crime and violence have very high indicators in this state. The analysis comprises the period between January 2012 and July 2018 (monthly data).

Findings

The results suggest that violence and crime negatively impact business confidence in Rio de Janeiro. The estimates reveal that, among all economic and noneconomic variables, the third variable with the greatest impact on business confidence is “cargo thefts.” An increase of one standard deviation in this variable reduces business confidence by approximately 2.48 basis points, while increases of one standard deviation in “violent deaths,” “commerce thefts” and “extortion” reduce business confidence by approximately 1.24, 1.46 and 1.47 bp, respectively. The impacts caused by these violence and crime variables are greater than the effect caused by an increase of one standard deviation in the real interest rate.

Practical implications

The findings reveal that a stable economic environment with economic growth is as important to business confidence as the adoption of policies aimed at increasing public security through the fight against crime and violence.

Originality/value

If on the one hand the literature provides evidence that crime is harmful to the economy, on the other hand no study has so far analyzed the impact of crime and violence on business confidence. This type of analysis is relevant since confidence is an important aspect in the expectation formation process and thus to production and investment decisions and economic activity. Thus, this study is the first to analyze the effects of crime and violence on business confidence and consequently, the first to explore the consequences of crime on the economy through the expectations channel.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 September 2023

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Raime Rolando Rodríguez Díaz

Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country…

Abstract

Purpose

Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country, this paper investigates whether monetary policy credibility and disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations relate to business confidence in Brazil. The study considers the aggregate business confidence index and the business confidence indexes for 11 industrial sectors in Brazil.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors run ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions to assess the direct effects of disagreements in expectation and monetary policy credibility on business confidence. The authors also make use of Wald test of parameter equality to observe whether there are “offsetting effects” of monetary credibility in mitigating the effects of both disagreements in expectations on business confidence. Besides, the authors run quantile regressions to analyze the effect of the main explanatory variables of interest on business confidence in contexts where business confidence is low (pessimistic) or high (optimistic).

Findings

Disagreements in inflation expectations reduce business confidence, monetary policy credibility improves business confidence and credibility mitigates the adverse effects of disagreements in expectations on business confidence. The sectors most sensitive to monetary policy credibility are Rubber, Motor Vehicles, Metallurgy, Metal Products and Cellulose. The findings also suggest the effect of disagreement in inflation expectations on business confidence decreases as confidence increases, and the effect of monetary policy credibility on business confidence increases as entrepreneurs are more optimistic.

Originality/value

While there is evidence that monetary policy credibility is beneficial to the economy, there are no studies on the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Besides, there are no studies that have investigated whether monetary policy credibility can mitigate the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Therefore, there are gaps to be filled in the literature addressing business confidence, monetary policy credibility and disagreements in expectations. These issues are particularly important to inflation targeting developing countries.

Details

Journal of Money and Business, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2596

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 April 2021

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Fabiana da Silva Leite Nogueira

This study estimates the effects of political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on business confidence. Moreover, it also examines business confidence as a transmission…

1251

Abstract

Purpose

This study estimates the effects of political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on business confidence. Moreover, it also examines business confidence as a transmission channel of political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty to investment.

Design/methodology/approach

The study addresses the Brazilian case from May 2004 to December 2017. Brazil experienced situations of political instability and public distrust in government and its policies, which reflected on the economic environment. The study uses two business confidence indicators that capture entrepreneurs' sentiment in relation to their business and the economy. All models are estimated using ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments.

Findings

The estimates reveal that increases in both political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty reduce business confidence. The findings also indicate that business confidence acts as a transmission mechanism, i.e. uncertainties affect investments through business confidence.

Practical implications

The findings point to the following practical implications related to the existence of uncertainties in the Brazilian economy: different institutional difficulties and government indecisions have blurred the political scene and caused political uncertainties. In addition, the same aspects that blurred the political scene also caused uncertainties in relation to economic policy that undermined business confidence, and affected investment.

Originality/value

There is a vast literature on business confidence, as well as studies addressing the relationship between business confidence and investment. This study differs from other studies as follows: in addition to the political uncertainty, it also analyzes the effect of economic policy uncertainty on business confidence; it uses different measures to capture political instability, and it analyzes whether business confidence acts as a transmission channel of both uncertainties to investments.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 49 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 August 2020

Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira and Gabriel Caldas Montes

Credit rating agencies (CRAs) are perceived as highly influential in the financial system since their announcements can affect several players in the financial markets, from big…

Abstract

Purpose

Credit rating agencies (CRAs) are perceived as highly influential in the financial system since their announcements can affect several players in the financial markets, from big private financial and non-financial companies and their financial markets experts to sovereign states. In this sense, this study investigates whether sovereign credit news issued by CRAs (measured by comprehensive credit rating (CCR) variables) affect the uncertainties about the exchange rate in the future (captured by the disagreement about exchange rate expectations). The study is relevant once there is evidence indicating that CRAs' assessments are responsible for affecting international capital flows and, thus, sovereign rating changes can affect the expectations formation process regarding the exchange rate. In addition, there is evidence indicating that the disagreement about exchange rate expectations affects the disagreement about inflation expectations, which brings consequences to policymakers.

Design/methodology/approach

The dependent variables are the disagreement in expectations about the Brazilian exchange rate for different forecast horizons, 12, 24 and 36 months ahead and the first principal component of theses series. On the other hand, the CCR variables are built upon the long-term foreign-currency Brazilian bonds ratings, outlooks and credit watches provided by the main CRAs. Estimates are obtained using ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM); a dynamic analysis is performed using vector-autoregressive (VAR) through impulse-response functions.

Findings

Negative (positive) sovereign credit news, given by a rating downgrade (upgrade) and/or a negative (positive) outlook/watch status, increase (decrease) the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. This result holds for all disagreement and CCR variables.

Practical implications

The study brings practical implications to both private agents (mainly financial market experts) and policymakers. An important practical implication of the study concerns the ability of CRAs to affect the expectations formation process of financial market experts regarding the future behavior of the exchange rate. When a CRA issues a signal of improvement in a country's sovereign rating, this signal reflects the perception of improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals and reduction of uncertainties about the country's ability to honor its financial obligations, which therefore, facilitates the expectations formation process, causing a reduction in the disagreement about the exchange rate expectations. With respect to the consequences for policymakers, they will have more difficulty in guiding expectations in a country with a worse sovereign risk rating, where agents have difficulties in forming expectations and the disagreement in expectations is greater.

Originality/value

The study is the first to analyze the impact of CRAs' announcements on the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. Moreover, it connects the literature that investigates the effects of sovereign credit news on the economy with the literature that examines the main determinants of disagreement in expectations about macroeconomic variables.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 48 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 March 2022

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Vítor Manuel Araújo da Fonseca

Using a fiscal sentiment indicator, this study aims to verify whether fiscal sentiment affects the yield curve in Brazil. Since policymakers highlight the coordination between…

Abstract

Purpose

Using a fiscal sentiment indicator, this study aims to verify whether fiscal sentiment affects the yield curve in Brazil. Since policymakers highlight the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies and the importance of fiscal policy to the expectations formation process in inflation targeting regimes, the authors also explore the transmission mechanism through inflation expectations. Hence, the study also analyzes the effect of fiscal sentiment on interest rate swap spreads through the inflation expectations channel.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on information obtained from official communiqués about fiscal policies issued by the Central Bank of Brazil and the Brazilian Ministry of Finance, the study builds a fiscal sentiment indicator. The econometric strategy to verify whether fiscal sentiment is related to the short tail of the yield curve is based on time series analysis through ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments estimates. In turn, to estimate the transmission mechanism through inflation expectations, the model uses interaction terms between fiscal sentiment and inflation expectations.

Findings

The results suggest a more optimistic (pessimistic) fiscal sentiment reduces (increases) swap spreads. The findings reveal that improvements in fiscal credibility and a more optimistic fiscal sentiment are able to reduce the positive marginal effect that inflation expectations variations have on interest rate swap spreads.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature, as, to the best of authors’ knowledge, it is the first to analyze the content of the communiqués related to fiscal policy, and based on this content, it extracts the sentiment related to the fiscal environment and analyzes the effect of this sentiment on the yield curve. Besides, different from existing studies that analyze the effect of fiscal backward-looking aspects (such as public debt, budget balance, taxes and public spending) on the yield curve, this study investigates forward-looking aspects related to fiscal policy (such as fiscal credibility and fiscal sentiment).

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2018

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Gabriel Oliveira Lins

Due to the high levels of crime in Rio de Janeiro, the purpose of this paper is twofold. The first one is to analyze the effects of deterrence variables (such as the adoption of…

Abstract

Purpose

Due to the high levels of crime in Rio de Janeiro, the purpose of this paper is twofold. The first one is to analyze the effects of deterrence variables (such as the adoption of Pacifying Police Units (UPPs) and incarcerations) on violence in the municipalities of the State of Rio de Janeiro, as well as to verify the existence of “revenge effect.” The second is to analyze the effects of socio-economic development on violence, using development indicators.

Design/methodology/approach

Besides usual OLS method for panel data analysis, the study makes use of dynamic panel data framework through D-GMM and S-GMM. The estimates are based on a sample of 82 municipalities of Rio de Janeiro, and the period runs from 2003 to 2013. As dependent variables, the estimates use violent deaths (i.e. aggregation of intentional homicides and armed robberies followed by death) and homicides resulting from opposition to police intervention (i.e. civilians killed as a result of police actions against criminals – “opposition deaths”).

Findings

The estimates indicate that incarceration presents marginal capacity to reduce violence. Regarding the findings for the adoption of UPPs, the evidence suggests that this project increased violence and, therefore, the possibility of displacement of violence to other regions of the State. With respect to the effect of police deaths over violence, the results are unprecedented and suggest the existence of a “revenge effect.” Besides, the study points to the importance of socio-economic development to reduce violence.

Originality/value

Once the study analyzes the effects of incarceration and UPPs, it contributes to the literature by providing new evidence on the ability of anti-crime policies of reducing (or not) violence. In addition, when considering the death of policemen in the estimates, the study shows an unprecedented way, the effect that these deaths cause over violence (the so-called “revenge effect”). Moreover, the study considers the impacts of the development of employment and income, health and education on violence. When analyzing these development indicators, the study contributes with the literature that looks for non-police alternatives to control crime.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 45 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 November 2018

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Cristiane Gea

The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and…

Abstract

Purpose

The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries.

Findings

Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries.

Practical implications

The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy.

Originality/value

Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 45 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 October 2021

Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira and Gabriel Caldas Montes

Given the importance of credit rating agencies’ (CRAs) assessment in affecting international financial markets, it is useful for policymakers and investors to be able to forecast…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the importance of credit rating agencies’ (CRAs) assessment in affecting international financial markets, it is useful for policymakers and investors to be able to forecast it properly. Therefore, this study aims to forecast sovereign risk perception of the main agencies related to Brazilian bonds through the application of different machine learning (ML) techniques and evaluate their predictive accuracy in order to find out which one is best for this task.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on monthly data from January 1996 to November 2018, we perform different forecast analyses using the K-Nearest Neighbors, the Gradient Boosted Random Trees and the Multilayer Perceptron methods.

Findings

The results of this study suggest the Multilayer Perceptron technique is the most reliable one. Its predictive accuracy is relatively high if compared to the other two methods. Its forecast errors are the lowest in both the out-of-sample and in-sample forecasts’ exercises. These results hold if we consider the CRAs classification structure as linear or logarithmic. Moreover, its forecast errors are not statistically associated with periods of changes in CRAs’ opinion of any sort.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate the performance of ML methods in the task of predicting sovereign credit news, including not only the sovereign ratings but also the outlook and credit watch status. In addition, the authors investigate whether the forecasts errors are statistically associated with periods of changes in sovereign risk perception.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2020

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Solimar de Pinho Bernabé

Rio de Janeiro has a high tourism potential, and it is the only Brazilian city among the 100 most visited in the world. However, the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods…

Abstract

Purpose

Rio de Janeiro has a high tourism potential, and it is the only Brazilian city among the 100 most visited in the world. However, the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism estimates that from the total loss of revenue from tourism activities of the State of Rio de Janeiro in 2017, approximately 29 percent of this loss can be attributed to increased violence in the State. Thus, this study aims to estimate the impact of violence on tourist arrivals to Rio de Janeiro.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis is based on a sample of tourist arrivals to Rio de Janeiro from 51 countries, for the period between 2003 and 2016. Violence is represented by violent deaths in the State of Rio de Janeiro as well as in the capital. The estimates are based on panel data methodology. This study reports fixed-effect estimates as well as dynamic panel data estimates obtained through S-GMM. The study runs regressions for the full sample and also for two other samples: one with tourists coming from developed countries and another with tourists from developing countries.

Findings

The results reveal that violence negatively impacts tourism to Rio, and it shows that tourists from developed countries are more affected by violence than tourists from developing countries. The findings indicate that for each violent death in the capital of Rio de Janeiro, almost four tourists from developed countries and approximately three tourists from developing countries quit going to Rio de Janeiro.

Originality/value

The paper is one of the few to investigate the impacts of urban violence on tourism. The paper provides two contributions. First, it addresses the effect of violent deaths on tourism, bringing evidence to a destination with a high tourism potential, but which suffers from urban violence. Second, the study is the first to investigate whether this relation is different for tourists from countries with distinct levels of development (and thus with different levels of violence).

Peer review

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2019-0590

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 47 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

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