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In recent years, a sizeable amount of research in finance and accounting has been devoted to the issue of bond rating and bond rating changes. A major thrust of these research efforts was to develop and test some prediction‐based models using mainly financial ratios and their trends. This paper tests the ability of statistical decomposition analysis of financial statements to predict bond rating changes. The results show that the decomposition analysis almost does not beat the a priori probability model and is no better than multiple discriminant analysis using simple financial ratios. One important piece of information for participants in debt markets is the assessment of the relative risk associated with a particular bond issue, commonly known as bond ratings. These ratings, however, are not usually fixed for the life of the issues. From time to time, the rating agencies review their ratings of the outstanding bond issues and make changes to these ratings (either upward or downward) when needed. Over the years, researchers have attempted to develop and test some prediction based models in order to predict bond ratings or bond rating changes. These prediction models have employed some variables that are assumed to reflect the rating agency decision‐making activities. Although the rating process is complicated and based mainly on judgmental considerations, Hawkins, Brown and Campbell (1983, p. 95) reported that the academic research strongly suggests that a reliable estimate of a potential bond rating or rating change can be determined by a few key financial ratios. Information theory decomposition measures have received in recent years considerable attention as a potential tool for predicting corporate events, namely corporate bankruptcy (e.g., Lev 1970; Moyer 1977; Walker, Stowe and Moriarity 1979; Booth 1983). The underlying proposition in these studies is that corporate failure, as an event, is expected to be preceded by significant changes in the company's assets and liabilities structure. Although the event of bond rating changes is different from the bankruptcy event in terms of consequences, one can still propose that a bond rating change, as a corporate event, is also expected to be preceded by some significant changes in the company's assets and liabilities structure. Therefore, the decomposition analysis may have a predictive ability in the case of bond rating changes. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test and compare the classification and predictive accuracy of the decomposition analysis with the performance of a multiple discriminant model that uses financial ratios and their trends in the context of bond rating changes.

This study attempts to identify fundamental determinants of bond ratings for non-financial and financial firms. Further the study aims to develop a parsimonious bond rating model and compare its efficacy across statistical and range of machine learning methods in the Indian context. The study is motivated by the insufficiency of prior work in the Indian context.

The authors identify the critical determinants of non-financial and financial firms using multinomial logistic regression. Various machine learning and statistical methods are employed to identify the optimal bond rating prediction model. The data cover 8,346 bond issues from 2009 to 2019.

The authors find that industry concentration, sales, operating leverage, operating efficiency, profitability, solvency, strategic ownership, age, firm size and firm value play an important role in rating non-financial firms. Operating efficiency, profitability, strategic ownership and size are also relevant for financial firms besides additional determinants related to the capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, earnings quality and liquidity (CAMEL) approach. The authors find that random forest outperforms logit and other machine learning methods with an accuracy rate of 92 and 91% for non-financial and financial firms.

The study identifies important determinants of bond ratings for both non-financial and financial firms. The study interalia finds that the random forest technique is the most appropriate method for bond ratings predictions in India.

Better bond ratings may mitigate corporate defaults.

Unlike prior literature, the study identifies determinants of bond ratings for both non-financial and financial firms. The study also experiments with modern machine learning techniques besides the traditional statistical approach for model building in case of relatively under researched market.

Given the importance of credit rating agencies’ (CRAs) assessment in affecting international financial markets, it is useful for policymakers and investors to be able to forecast it properly. Therefore, this study aims to forecast sovereign risk perception of the main agencies related to Brazilian bonds through the application of different machine learning (ML) techniques and evaluate their predictive accuracy in order to find out which one is best for this task.

Based on monthly data from January 1996 to November 2018, we perform different forecast analyses using the K-Nearest Neighbors, the Gradient Boosted Random Trees and the Multilayer Perceptron methods.

The results of this study suggest the Multilayer Perceptron technique is the most reliable one. Its predictive accuracy is relatively high if compared to the other two methods. Its forecast errors are the lowest in both the out-of-sample and in-sample forecasts’ exercises. These results hold if we consider the CRAs classification structure as linear or logarithmic. Moreover, its forecast errors are not statistically associated with periods of changes in CRAs’ opinion of any sort.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate the performance of ML methods in the task of predicting sovereign credit news, including not only the sovereign ratings but also the outlook and credit watch status. In addition, the authors investigate whether the forecasts errors are statistically associated with periods of changes in sovereign risk perception.

Accounting researchers have performed many studies related to public sector budgeting and financial management. Public sector accounting research seeks to explain the role of accounting and auditing in the public sector. For example, researchers examine issues such as (1) the use of accounting information by elected officials, (2) the demand for auditing, and (3) the determination of bond ratings. This review of the public sector accounting literature describes some of the theoretical foundations utilized in public sector accounting research and reviews a sample of selected empirical studies.

This paper presents the results of a study comparing the ability of neural network models and multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) models to predict bond rating changes and to exam if segmentation by investment grade improves classification. Data was collected on more than 900 bonds that had their Standard and Poor's Corporation rating changed during the period 1997 to 2002. This was matched this dataset with corresponding firms which had the same initial bond rating but which did not change. The correspondence was based on the firms being in the same industry, having the same rating at the time of the change (the time frame was one month) and the same approximate asset size (within 20%). This relatively stringent set of criteria reduced the data set to 282 pairs of companies. A neural network model and a multiple discriminant analysis were used to predict both a bond change and the general direction of a movement from a particular bond rating to another bond rating. The predictive variables were financial ratios and rates of change for these ratios. In almost all cases, particularly for the larger sample studies, the neural network models were better predictors than the multiple discriminant models. The paper reviews, in detail, performance of the respective models, strengths and limitations of the models – particularly with respect to underlying assumptions- and future research directions.

The purpose of this paper is to build a neural network system to predict corporate credit rating in Jordanian non-financial firms, using 19 different financial characteristics such as profitability, leverage ratios, liquidity, bankruptcy, and sales performance.

The study adopts two neural network techniques namely, Kohonen network and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN). Our sample includes the manufacturing firms that have provided the required financial information for the period from 2000 to 2007.

BPNN has successfully predicted firms with high performance gaining A rating and the bankrupted firms with D rating for the period from 2005 to 2007.

This study is the first study to investigate credit rating in Jordan using Neural Network technique.

This study aims to present an empirical model designed to forecast bank credit ratings using only quantitative and publicly available information from their financial statements. For this reason, the authors use the long-term ratings provided by Fitch in 2012. The sample consists of 92 US banks and publicly available information in annual frequency from their financial statements from 2008 to 2011.

First, in the effort to select the most informative regressors from a long list of financial variables and ratios, the authors use stepwise least squares and select several alternative sets of variables. Then, these sets of variables are used in an ordered probit regression setting to forecast the long-term credit ratings.

Under this scheme, the forecasting accuracy of the best model reaches 83.70 percent when nine explanatory variables are used.

The results indicate that bank credit ratings largely rely on historical data making them respond sluggishly and after any financial problems are already known to the public.

Neural networks and expert systems are two major branches of artificial intelligence (AI). Their emergence has created the potential for a new generation of computer‐based applications in the area of financial decision making. Both systems are used by financial institutions and corporations for a variety of new applications from credit scoring to bond rating to detection of credit card fraud. While both systems belong to the applied field of artificial intelligence, there are many differences between them which differentiate their potential capabilities in the field of business. Presents an analysis of both neural networks and expert systems applications in terms of their capabilities and weaknesses. Uses examples of financial applications of expert systems and neural networks to provide a unified context for the comparison.

Credit risk assessment has gained importance in recent years due to global financial crisis and credit crunch. Financial institutions therefore seek the support of credit rating agencies to predict the ability of creditors to meet financial persuasions. The purpose of this paper is to construct neural network (NN) and fuzzy support vector machine (FSVM) classifiers to discriminate good creditors from bad ones and identify a best classifier for credit risk assessment.

This study uses artificial neural network, the most popular AI technique used in the field of financial applications for classification and prediction and the new machine learning classification algorithm, FSVM to differentiate good creditors from bad. As membership value on data points influence the classification problem, this paper presents the new FSVM model. The instances membership is computed using fuzzy c-means by evolving a new membership. The FSVM model is also tested on different kernels and compared and the classifier with highest classification accuracy for a kernel is identified.

The paper identifies a standard AI model by comparing the performances of the NN model and FSVM model for a credit risk data set. This work proves that that FSVM model performs better than back propagation-neural network.

The proposed model can be used by financial institutions to accurately assess the credit risk pattern of customers and make better decisions.

This paper has developed a new membership for data points and has proposed a new FCM-based FSVM model for more accurate predictions.

Financial health of a corporation is a great concern for every investor level and decision-makers. For many years, financial solvency prediction is a significant issue throughout academia, precisely in finance. This requirement leads this study to check whether machine learning can be implemented in financial solvency prediction.

This study analyzed 244 Dhaka stock exchange public-listed companies over the 2015–2019 period, and two subsets of data are also developed as training and testing datasets. For machine learning model building, samples are classified as secure, healthy and insolvent by the Altman Z-score. R statistical software is used to make predictive models of five classifiers and all model performances are measured with different performance metrics such as logarithmic loss (logLoss), area under the curve (AUC), precision recall AUC (prAUC), accuracy, kappa, sensitivity and specificity.

This study found that the artificial neural network classifier has 88% accuracy and sensitivity rate; also, AUC for this model is 96%. However, the ensemble classifier outperforms all other models by considering logLoss and other metrics.

The major result of this study can be implicated to the financial institution for credit scoring, credit rating and loan classification, etc. And other companies can implement machine learning models to their enterprise resource planning software to trace their financial solvency.

Finally, a predictive application is developed through training a model with 1,200 observations and making it available for all rational and novice investors (Abdullah, 2020).

This study found that, with the best of author expertise, the author did not find any studies regarding machine learning research of financial solvency that examines a comparable number of a dataset, with all these models in Bangladesh.