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In this paper, we evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.

We employ a Dynamic GTAP-VA Model to quantitatively evaluate the economic repercussions of the “Chip Act” on the Chinese electronic industries' GVC participation from 2023 to 2040.

The findings depict a discernible contraction in China’s electronic sector by 2040, marked by a −2.95% change in output, a −3.50% alteration in exports and a 0.45% increment in imports. Concurrently, the U.S., EU and certain Asian economies exhibit expansions within the electronic sector, indicating a GVC realignment. The “Chip Act” implementation precipitates a significant divergence in GVC participation across different countries and industries, notably impacting the electronics sector.

Through a meticulous temporal analysis, this manuscript unveils the nuanced economic shifts within the GVC, substantially bridging the empirical void in existing literature. This narrative accentuates the profound implications of policy regulations on global trade dynamics, contributing to the discourse on international economic policy and industry evolution.

We evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.

The interaction between policy regulations and global value chain (GVC) dynamics is pivotal in understanding the contemporary global trade framework, especially within technology-driven sectors. The US “Chips Act” represents a significant regulatory milestone with potential ramifications on the Chinese electronic industries' engagement in the GVC.

The significance of this paper is that it quantifies for the first time the impact of the US Chip Act on the GVC participation index of East Asian countries in the context of US-China decoupling. With careful consideration of strategic aspects, this paper substantially fills the empirical gap in the existing literature by presenting subtle economic changes within GVCs, highlighting the profound implications of policy regulation on global trade dynamics.

Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of the two Koreas using a computational general equilibrium (CGE). This paper aims to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea out of the 140 economies (countries) in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 9.1, which was published in mid-2015. (Ed- if your study aim is ‘to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea’, then you must state your study finding here in the abstract, and also in the conclusion, i.e., Romania) This paper evaluates the input-output (IO) tables for the North Korean economy in existing studies. Comparing the coefficients for North Korea in existing studies with those of the countries selected for this paper, substantial differences were found, especially for the services sector. This casts some doubt on the IO tables in the existing studies on the North Korean economy.

This paper aims to explore the impacts of the recent development of Korean free trade agreements (FTAs) on its seaborne trade volumes. The paper firstly estimates the changes in cargo value flows caused by Korea-EU FTA, Korea-USA FTA and Korea-ASEAN FTA using a global computable general equilibrium model named Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and its most recent database - version 7 with 2004 as the base year. Then a set of systematic conversion factors transferring trade value flows to volume flows of different types of commodities is calibrated according to the United Nations COMTRADE database and is used to convert the GTAP trade value flows into volume flows. Having indentified maritime cargo flows by different commodity types, this paper attempts to draw implications for maritime logistics policy in order to facilitate the trade of Korean merchandises and to propose key competitive strategy for the maritime container transport networking and logistics service providers in the Korean logistics industry.

This study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.

This study applies a scenario planning method (SPM) to develop multiple future scenarios considering uncertainties inherent in African socio-economies related to the success or failure of economic and industrial policies (EIPs) and economic corridor development policies (ECDPs). Subsequently, based on these future scenarios, the growth of African international trade from 2011 to 2040 is predicted using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.

The predictions reveal that if the EIPs and the ECDPs are successfully implemented, Africa, as a whole, will experience a significant increase in trade, estimated at US$ 1,905 billion and US$ 1,599 billion for exports and imports, respectively, compared to the scenario in which they fail. However, the effects vary greatly by country or region and industrial sector. The results also show that African intra-regional trade is rapidly expanding and is the second-largest after trade with Europe followed by other continents.

SPM, which allows us to reflect the uncertainties affecting African international trade prediction, is applied to build the future scenarios. The study comprehensively predicts African future international trade by setting a wide range of exogenous variables and parameters (input conditions for the GTAP model) related to EIPs and ECDPs.

The European Union (EU) has notified its revised Generalized System of Preference (GSP) on 31 October, 2012 which will come into effect from 1 January, 2014. The EU is also in the process of, or contemplating, to sign Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with many developing countries. Recently, EU has officially announced initiation of FTA negotiations with USA. Such preferential tariff arrangements could lead to significant erosion of preferences enjoyed currently by the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In this backdrop, the main objective of the present study is to investigate the economic impacts originating from preference erosion in the EU market which could potentially affect LDCs in general, Bangladesh in particular. In this context, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis has been developed by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and database to explore the aggregate impact of the preferential erosion as well as sectoral implications for which different partial equilibrium analyses were used. The analysis evince that if the EU eliminates all tariffs for Pakistan, India and Vietnam, Bangladesh's real GDP could decrease by 0.27 percent whilst welfare loss could be to the tune of US$ 54 million. Total exports to the EU will be reduced by 0.18 percent; consequently, Bangladesh’s terms of trade and exports of textiles and clothing could be fall by about 1 percent. The product level disaggregated analysis using RCA and unit price of major items also indicate that a number of products including textiles and clothing will be confronted with formidable market access difficulties in the EU.

The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second purpose is to assess the agricultural subsidies and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as policy responses to climate change.

The present study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and econometric approach in an integrated manner to examine the economic impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes in South Asian countries. An econometric model is used to identify the impact of climate change on cereal yields and CGE approach is used to assess the future effect of climate change through simulations. In this course, the econometric findings are applied to Multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project 10 and then the model is calibrated for future projection.

The results indicate that there is a decrease in cereals production because of climate change and eventually it increases the prices of cereals, decreases the local consumption and GDP and, as a result, causes a loss in welfare. Subsidies and SAFTA have been found to have no substantial impact on increasing food security in South Asia.

The present study uses the concept of food demand for all cereals in an integrated way and focuses on the fiscal and trade policy responses to climate change.

Laos joined ASEAN in 1997 and has practiced the Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme under ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) since 1998. To estimate the effects of AFTA on international trade in Laos, this paper has built a gravity model to analyze the specific effects of AFTA on aggregate international trade volume, import and export in Laos by using bilateral trade data between Laos and 29 partner countries during 2000 and 2012. Binary variables and the size of economy of AFTA are chosen to be the two variables reflecting the effect of AFTA on international trade of Laos. Results indicate that AFTA has positive effects on aggregate international trade volume and import while negative effects on export in Laos.