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The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003‐2020.

To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji.

The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003‐2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003‐2020 period.

Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.

The purpose of this paper is to examine to what extent evidence can be found for the presence of the Marshall–Lerner (ML) condition regarding the trade balances of Egypt. The theoretical basis of the ML is presented and then tested using Egyptian trade data from 1965 to 2017.

The data are analysed via standard ordinary least squares models subject to the constraints imposed by economic theory, specifically ML theory, in which the coefficients represent elasticities. A range of tests are undertaken to establish the validity of the models and the model results including multicollinearity, unit root and co-integration in order to avoid spurious regressions.

The export model strongly suggests that real exports of Egyptian goods and services are elastic with respect to changes in the real effective exchange rate (REER), with a coefficient weight of −1.64 and is significant at 1%. However, for the import model the coefficient weight of the REER −1.17 and is significant at 1%. This result contradicts ML theory, where an increase in the REER makes imports cheaper and thus causes them to increase.

The limitations of the study are two in particular, the first is that the frequency of the data employed is annual, not monthly or even quarterly, which means that the sample size would have been larger, and the estimated parameters could have been more accurate in forecasting the future behaviour of exports and imports. There could be several other indicators that might have clear impacts on exports and imports. In other words, it is possible that a model with consumer spending and government spending as well as terms of trade, inflation, interest rate spread and taxes is going to capture more of the variation that occurs in Egypt's trade balance components.

The results suggest that the Egypt-International Monetary Fund plan (depreciation) is likely to have a positive effect on the economy. However, this does not mean that the deficit of the trade balance is going to change into a surplus once the policies of the plan are fully applied, but it does mean the deficit will reduce. Only in the long run is the trade balance likely to record a sustainable surplus. But the latter will heavily depend on the structure of exports and imports and maintaining price stability, both of which are key government policy areas.

The paper builds on previous theoretical and empirical work in this field and in particular is focussed on Egypt. There are extremely few analyses of the ML condition regarding Egypt. This paper provides new information on this and can also be utilized by researchers to further develop the analysis and method through identification of other potentially relevant variables within a single country ML study.

The exchange rate has been an important topic in the Turkish Economy for many years. It affects prices with exchange rate pass-through. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the dual relationship between exports and imports, exports and the exchange rate, imports and the exchange rate by using time series analysis. The results indicate that there is only one causal relationship between exports and imports. The direction is from imports to exports.

This paper examines both the imports and exports of nonmaquiladora Mexican firms, theorizing that importing is generally motivated by exploration for new resources and exporting by exploitation of existing resources. Our results indicate that firm size is positively related to both imports and exports, while low cost labor advantage is positively associated with exports but not significantly related to imports. Because importing may precede exporting, it should be considered as part of the internationalization process of firms and as a key way to acquire resources before exploiting them through exporting.

The purpose of this study is to advance and test the idea that product exports and technology imports are complementary cross-border learning approaches for emerging market firms’ innovation performance. In addition, this paper also seeks to search for contextual variables that affect this complementarity.

This study takes systems approach to examine complementarity, combining a “productivity” and an “adoption” approach. In addition, interaction approach is also used as robustness check.

The authors show that the positive effect of export activity on firms’ growth rate is higher for firms that also engage in technology import, and vice versa. Furthermore, they show that, Ceteris paribus, firms’ adoption of one cross-border learning mechanism (e.g. entering export markets) positively influences the adoption of the other (e.g. technology import). Moreover, this complementarity is only significant for firms from province with low level of marketization.

This inconsistency about learning-by-exporting and technology import on innovation can be resolved, at least partially, by the complementarities perspective. This paper also reveals two mechanisms of learning-by-exporting: the indirect effect of export on innovation through increasing the likelihood of adoption decision of importing technology and enhancing the positive effect of technology imports.

The potential of combining the two strategies should not be ignored by managers. To improve regional competitiveness, local governments should try best to improve the efficiency of customs to help firms realize the synergistic effect of learning-by- exporting and learning-by-technology-importing.

This study first explores the positive complementarity between the two cross-border learning mechanism in sharping EEEs 2019 innovation performance and identifies the condition to realize the synergistic effect of learning-by-exporting and learning-by-technology-importing.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the export‐led growth, growth‐led export, import‐led growth, growth‐led import and foreign deficit sustainability hypothesis in the case of China, using annual time series data from 1978‐2009.

For estimation evidence this study employs the Phillips Perron unit root tests to examine the level of integration and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to determine the long run relationship, and the direction of long run and short run causal relationship is examined by using modified Granger causality test.

The results confirm the bidirectional long run relationship between the economic growth and exports, economic growth and imports, and exports and imports. These findings guided the authors to conclude that the exports‐led growth, growth‐led exports, imports‐led growth and growth‐led imports hypothesis is valid, and foreign deficit is sustainable for China. The long run elasticities are as follows: the elasticity of economic growth with respect to exports is 0.591, and elasticity of exports with respect to economic growth is 1.635. The elasticity of economic growth with respect to imports is 0.621, and elasticity of imports with respect to economic growth is 1.392. Further more the elasticity of exports with respect to imports is 1.322, and imports elasticity with respect to exports is 0.975.

This study utilizes the relative new cointegration method of ARDL approach. The empirical findings of this study are vital for policy makers of China in the formulation of trade policies.

The U.S. textile industry has gone through much upheaval in the past two decades. As protective barriers are gradually phased out the industry is faced with stiff foreign competition. Regional trade pacts, such as NAFTA and CBI, on the other hand help to improve the competitiveness of the domestic textile industry. This paper looks at the trends in U.S. textile trade with the various trading zones and the various factors influencing textile imports and exports. We examine the impact of the new global environment, the regional trade pacts, NAFTA and CBI on the changing nature and pattern of trade. The overall trends indicate a significant decline in imports from the EU countries, Asia remains significant, but NAFTA and CBI countries are quickly gaining ground over the old trading partners. The OECD remains the most significant destination for U.S. textile exports followed by NAFTA and Latin American countries.

This study constructs a comprehensive, internationally comparative set of foreign trade data for the period 1857–1875. The dataset is constructed using information at the commodity group-level and contains import and export values for the UK, France, the Zollverein, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria-Hungary, and the United States, itemised by trade partner. The study tackles three basic problems related to the heterogeneity in national statistics of the period: different definitions of aggregates, inadequate ‘official’ pricing, and the ‘proximity bias’, i.e. the misleading practice of crediting imports to bordering countries from where they physically entered, but where they did not originate. After passing successfully a consistency test, the resulting dataset contains harmonised and country of origin-corrected bilateral trade values for 7 central importers, 10 points in time, and 21 commodity groups, along with ad valorem tariff rates for all commodity groups and countries. They offer new detailed insights into the composition and evolution of trade and tariffs in the third quarter of the 19th century. Furthermore, a basic implementation of the gravity equation shows that as a consequence of the proximity bias estimates using uncorrected data are to be taken with care, especially when assessing border effects and the impact of policy variables.

The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the different factors affecting Sino-African trade based on the gravity model, and propose some solutions to improve the problems.

The paper is based on an extended gravity model, including trade agreement and recession as explanatory variables. The impacts of trade agreement and economic recession on Sino-African imports and exports are examined.

The results show that the product of GDP affects African exports to China significantly and negatively, and affects African imports from China positively. Real exchange rate affects African exports to China positively, and affects African imports from China negatively. Population affect African exports to China significantly and positively, and affect African imports from China positively. Recession have negative effects on both African imports from China and exports to China but is only significant for imports. Agreement affects African imports from China and exports to China positively. Our findings confirm the impact of economic recession, and imply that the structure of African product exported to China should be improved, and trade agreements should be reinforced.

This paper contributes and extends the literature on Sino-African trade by improving the traditional gravity model to include the impact of all trade agreements, and their aggregating effects on trade. The paper also seeks to assess the trade impact of economic recession through a dynamic gravity model approach for which there has been no research done to our knowledge. In this regard, it provides new understanding of the trade pattern between China and Africa, and ways in improving the Sino-African bilateral trade.