Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003‐2020

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003‐2020.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji.

Findings

The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003‐2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003‐2020 period.

Originality/value

Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.

Citation

Narayan, P.K., Narayan, S. and Chand Prasad, B. (2008), "Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003‐2020", International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 35 No. 12, pp. 1005-1016. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290810911516