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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Doaa El-Diftar

The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries (E7).

Design/methodology/approach

The study is conducted using the daily data for exchange rates and stock market returns in each of the E7 countries from January 1, 2019, to January 1, 2022. The study employs the ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lag error correction regression and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH (1,1)) regression models to fully investigate the impact of exchange rate on stock markets. For further investigation, the GARCH (1,1) model is run twice for each country with and without the inclusion of exchange rate to determine its effect on the volatility of stock returns.

Findings

The findings support the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables for all countries. The results reveal significant positive long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns in all countries except for Indonesia, which evidenced a significant negative impact. The results of the GARCH (1,1) add that the inclusion of exchange rate in the model accounts for a slight change in the volatility of stock returns.

Originality/value

The research provides empirical evidence that appreciating currencies are perceived positively by investors leading to better performing capital markets. The outcomes of this study may assist policy makers in understanding to what degree changes in exchange rates can influence capital markets, as well as narrow the gap in literature regarding which theory is more relevant in explaining how exchange rate fluctuations impact market values.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Findings

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

Originality/value

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Sami Zaki Alabdulwahab and Ahmed Sabry Abou-Zaid

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

Findings

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

Originality/value

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 November 2023

Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, Iwona Piekunko-Mantiuk and Scott W. Hegerty

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s…

Abstract

Purpose

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants.

Design/methodology/approach

Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated.

Findings

One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors.

Research limitations/implications

This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects.

Originality/value

An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Ivan D. Trofimov

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

Findings

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

Originality/value

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 September 2021

Kesuh Jude Thaddeus, Chi Aloysius Ngong, Njimukala Moses Nebong, Akume Daniel Akume, Jumbo Urie Eleazar and Josaphat Uchechukwu Joe Onwumere

The purpose of this paper is to examine key macroeconomic determinants on Cameroon's economic growth from 1970 to 2018.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine key macroeconomic determinants on Cameroon's economic growth from 1970 to 2018.

Design/methodology/approach

Data were obtained from the World Development Indicators and applied on time series data econometric techniques. The auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds model analyzed the data since the variables had different order of integration.

Findings

The results showed long and short runs’ positive and significant connection between economic growth in Cameroon and government expenditure; trade openness, gross capital formation and exchange rate. Human capital development, foreign aid, money supply, inflation and foreign direct investment negatively and significantly affected economic growth in the short and long-runs. Hence, the macroeconomic indicators are not death.

Research limitations/implications

The present research paper has tried to capture the impact of nine macroeconomic determinants on economic growth such as the government expenditure (LNGOVEXP), human capital development (LNHCD), foreign aids (AID), trade openness (LNTOP), foreign direct investment (LNFDI), gross capital formation (INVEST), broad money (LNM2), official exchange rate (LNEXHRATE) and Inflation (LNINFLA). However, these variables have the tendency to affect each other in a unidirectional or bidirectional manner. Further, the present research paper is unable to capture the impact of other macroeconomic variable due to the unavailability of data.

Practical implications

The study recommends that Cameroon should use proper planning and strategic policy interventions to achieve higher sustainable economic growth with human capital development, foreign aid, money supply, foreign direct investment and moderate inflation.

Social implications

Macroeconomic indicators, if managed well, increase economic growth.

Originality/value

This paper to the best of the researcher's knowledge presents new background information to both policymakers and researchers on the main macroeconomic determinants using econometric analysis.

Details

Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2635-1374

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 September 2023

Sanshao Peng, Catherine Prentice, Syed Shams and Tapan Sarker

Given the cryptocurrency market boom in recent years, this study aims to identify the factors influencing cryptocurrency pricing and the major gaps for future research.

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Abstract

Purpose

Given the cryptocurrency market boom in recent years, this study aims to identify the factors influencing cryptocurrency pricing and the major gaps for future research.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic literature review was undertaken. Three databases, Scopus, Web of Science and EBSCOhost, were used for this review. The final analysis comprised 88 articles that met the eligibility criteria.

Findings

The influential factors were identified and categorized as supply and demand, technology, economics, market volatility, investors’ attributes and social media. This review provides a comprehensive and consolidated view of cryptocurrency pricing and maps the significant influential factors.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to systematically and comprehensively review the relevant literature on cryptocurrency to identify the factors of pricing fluctuation. This research contributes to cryptocurrency research as well as to consumer behaviors and marketing discipline in broad.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 March 2023

Youssra Ben Romdhane, Souhaila Kammoun and Sahar Loukil

This study attempts to explain the impact of Fintech on the Asian economies through two main indicators, inflation and unemployment over the period 2011-2014-2017.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study attempts to explain the impact of Fintech on the Asian economies through two main indicators, inflation and unemployment over the period 2011-2014-2017.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses panel data regression models to explain the relationship between Fintech, inflation as an indicator of currency circulation and unemployment since Fintech has disrupted the labor market.

Findings

Empirical results show a consistently strong and positive relationship between the development of financial technologies and the reduction of inflation and unemployment unless these technologies are actively used. Digital finance has become a new driver of economic development. Therefore, governors should not only improve their economies but also expand their information and communication technologies to develop their digital infrastructure, especially for businesses.

Originality/value

The present study contributes to the existing literature on the impact of disruptive digital innovation on the socioeconomic development of emerging countries. The empirical evidence highlights the importance of distinguishing between active and passive uses of Fintech in order to anticipate its economic impact.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. 42 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Hugo Iasco-Pereira and Rafael Duregger

Our study aims to evaluate the impact of infrastructure and public investment on private investment in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1947 to 2017. The contribution of our…

Abstract

Purpose

Our study aims to evaluate the impact of infrastructure and public investment on private investment in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1947 to 2017. The contribution of our article to the existing literature lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of the presence or absence of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy by leveraging an extensive historical database. Our central argument posits that the recent decline in private capital accumulation over the last few decades can be attributed to shifts in economic policies – moving from a developmentalist orientation to nondevelopmental guidance since the early 1990s, which is reflected in the diminished levels of public investment and infrastructure since the 1980s.

Design/methodology/approach

We conducted a series of econometric regressions utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as our chosen econometric methodology.

Findings

Employing two different variables to measure public investment and infrastructure, our results – robust across various specifications – have substantiated the existence of a crowding-in effect in Brazil over the examined period. Thus, we have empirical evidence indicating that the state has influenced private capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy over the past decades.

Originality/value

Our article contributes to the existing literature by offering a more comprehensive understanding of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy, utilizing an extensive historical database.

Details

EconomiA, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Jonathan Damilola Oladeji, Benita Zulch (Kotze) and Joseph Awoamim Yacim

The challenge of accessibility to adequate housing in several countries by a large percentage of citizens has given rise to different housing programs designed to facilitate…

1006

Abstract

Purpose

The challenge of accessibility to adequate housing in several countries by a large percentage of citizens has given rise to different housing programs designed to facilitate access to affordable housing. In South Africa, the National Housing Finance Corporation (NHFC) was created to provides housing loans to low- and middle-income earners. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the implication of the macroeconomic risk elements on the performance of the NHFC incremental housing finance.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a mixed-method approach to examine the time-series data of the NHFC over 17 years (2003–2020), relative to selected macroeconomic indicators. Additionally, this study analysed primary data from a 2022 survey of NHFC Executives.

Findings

This study found that incremental housing finance addresses a housing affordability gap, caters to disadvantaged groups, adapts to changing macroeconomic conditions and can mitigate default risk. It also finds that the performance of the NHFC’s incremental housing finance is premised on the behaviour of the macroeconomic elements that drive its strategy in South Africa.

Originality/value

Unlike previous works on housing finance, this case study of the NHFC considers the implication of macroeconomic trends when disbursing incremental housing finance to low- and middle-level income earners as a risk mitigation measure for the South African market. Its mixed method use of quantitative and qualitative data also allows a robust insight into trends that drive investment in incremental housing finance in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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