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Book part
Publication date: 14 November 2011

Nitin Shenoy and Milton Smith

The challenges that propane companies face in maintaining a balance in inventories during the summer and winter months, and the factors that influence the residential propane…

Abstract

The challenges that propane companies face in maintaining a balance in inventories during the summer and winter months, and the factors that influence the residential propane demand were addressed. This chapter presents a forecasting model for propane consumption within the residential sector. Forecasting the propane demand helps to determine whether there will be a shortage of propane in the storage or distribution center, and is there a need for new distribution station or a storage facility, or vice-versa that there is an overabundance of propane, that is, far more than the demand and if there is a need to shut down few facilities. The dynamic behavior of different variables that affected the propane consumption was studied and using Base SAS we developed a forecasting model. The results indicated that the forecasting model provides a potentially useful forecast for residential propane consumption. This research has been limited to forecasting for normal periods, that is periods without irregularities in demand caused by holidays or festivals. The forecasts developed were useful in improving the inventory balance for a local propane company during different months.

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Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-959-3

Book part
Publication date: 25 October 2023

Akram Qashou, Sufian Yousef, Amaechi Okoro and Firas Hazzaa

The malfunction variables of power stations are related to the areas of weather, physical structure, control and load behaviour. To predict temporal power failure is difficult due…

Abstract

The malfunction variables of power stations are related to the areas of weather, physical structure, control and load behaviour. To predict temporal power failure is difficult due to their unpredictable characteristics. As high accuracy is normally required, the estimation of failures of short-term temporal prediction is highly difficult. This study presents a method for converting stochastic behaviour into a stable pattern, which can subsequently be used in a short-term estimator. For this conversion, K-means clustering is employed, followed by Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithms are used to perform the Short-term estimation. The environment, the operation and the generated signal factors are all simulated using mathematical models. Weather parameters and load samples have been collected as part of a data set. Monte-Carlo simulation using MATLAB programming has been used to conduct experimental estimation of failures. The estimated failures of the experiment are then compared with the actual system temporal failures and found to be in good match. Therefore, for any future power grid, there is a testbed ready to estimate the future failures.

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Technology and Talent Strategies for Sustainable Smart Cities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-023-6

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Book part
Publication date: 18 January 2024

Tulsi Pawan Fowdur and Ashven Sanghan

Energy production and distribution is undergoing a revolutionary transition with the advent of disruptive technologies such as the Internet of Energy (IoE), 5G and artificial…

Abstract

Energy production and distribution is undergoing a revolutionary transition with the advent of disruptive technologies such as the Internet of Energy (IoE), 5G and artificial intelligence (AI). IoE essentially involves automating and enhancing the energy infrastructure: the power grid from grid operators to energy generators and distribution utilities. The IoE also relies on powerful connectivity networks such as 5G, big data analytics and AI to optimise its operation. By incorporating the technology that employs ubiquitous devices such as smartphones, tablets or smart electric vehicles, it will be possible to fully exploit the potential of IoE using 5G networks. 5G networks will provide high speed connections between devices such as drones, tractors and cloud networks, to transfer huge amounts of sensor data. Additionally, there are many sources of isolated data across the main energy production units (generation, transmission and distribution), and the data is increasing at phenomenal rates. By applying AI to these data, major improvements can be brought at each stage of the energy production chain. Tying renewable energy to the telecommunications sector and leveraging on the potential of data analytics is something which is gaining major attention among researchers and industry experts. This chapter therefore explores the combination of three of the most promising technologies i.e. IoE, 5G and AI for achieving affordable and clean energy, which is SDG 7 in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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Artificial Intelligence, Engineering Systems and Sustainable Development
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-540-8

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Book part
Publication date: 5 October 2018

Nima Gerami Seresht, Rodolfo Lourenzutti, Ahmad Salah and Aminah Robinson Fayek

Due to the increasing size and complexity of construction projects, construction engineering and management involves the coordination of many complex and dynamic processes and…

Abstract

Due to the increasing size and complexity of construction projects, construction engineering and management involves the coordination of many complex and dynamic processes and relies on the analysis of uncertain, imprecise and incomplete information, including subjective and linguistically expressed information. Various modelling and computing techniques have been used by construction researchers and applied to practical construction problems in order to overcome these challenges, including fuzzy hybrid techniques. Fuzzy hybrid techniques combine the human-like reasoning capabilities of fuzzy logic with the capabilities of other techniques, such as optimization, machine learning, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and simulation, to capitalise on their strengths and overcome their limitations. Based on a review of construction literature, this chapter identifies the most common types of fuzzy hybrid techniques applied to construction problems and reviews selected papers in each category of fuzzy hybrid technique to illustrate their capabilities for addressing construction challenges. Finally, this chapter discusses areas for future development of fuzzy hybrid techniques that will increase their capabilities for solving construction-related problems. The contributions of this chapter are threefold: (1) the limitations of some standard techniques for solving construction problems are discussed, as are the ways that fuzzy methods have been hybridized with these techniques in order to address their limitations; (2) a review of existing applications of fuzzy hybrid techniques in construction is provided in order to illustrate the capabilities of these techniques for solving a variety of construction problems and (3) potential improvements in each category of fuzzy hybrid technique in construction are provided, as areas for future research.

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Fuzzy Hybrid Computing in Construction Engineering and Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-868-2

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Urban Transport and the Environment
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-047029-0

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 24 April 2023

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Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-212-4

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Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2004

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Urban Transport and the Environment
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-047029-0

Book part
Publication date: 1 January 2004

Sam Mirmirani and Hsi Cheng Li

This study applies VAR and ANN techniques to make ex-post forecast of U.S. oil price movements. The VAR-based forecast uses three endogenous variables: lagged oil price, lagged…

Abstract

This study applies VAR and ANN techniques to make ex-post forecast of U.S. oil price movements. The VAR-based forecast uses three endogenous variables: lagged oil price, lagged oil supply and lagged energy consumption. However, the VAR model suggests that the impacts of oil supply and energy consumption has limited impacts on oil price movement. The forecast of the genetic algorithm-based ANN model is made by using oil supply, energy consumption, and money supply (M1). Root mean squared error and mean absolute error have been used as the evaluation criteria. Our analysis suggests that the BPN-GA model noticeably outperforms the VAR model.

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Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Finance and Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-303-7

Book part
Publication date: 9 June 2022

Denizhan Guven, Gizem Kaya Aydın and M. Ozgur Kayalica

This study focuses on examining the impact of energy consumption, economic structure, population, and manufacturing output on the CO2 emissions of selected emerging countries by…

Abstract

This study focuses on examining the impact of energy consumption, economic structure, population, and manufacturing output on the CO2 emissions of selected emerging countries by utilizing the Structural Time Series Model (STSM). Based on the annual data ranging from 1970 to 2019, the model is built up using total primary energy consumption, GDP per capita, population and manufacturing value-added, and, finally, a stochastic Underlying Emission Trend as explanatory variables. STSM is extended by the introduction of the notion of Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) as a factor for exogenous effects, including development in technical progress, energy efficiency improvements, changes in human behaviors, economy, and environmental regulations. In this context, STSM and the notion of UEDT are implemented to form a forecasting model for CO2 emissions of the selected emerging countries. The model discovers the significant influences of all selected variables of CO2 emissions. The results suggest that the most forceful factor in CO2 emissions is the total primary energy supply. Furthermore, while the long-term impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions is negative for some emerging economies, it is positive for several others. The model also measures the long-term manufacturing value-added elasticity of CO2 emissions in these emerging economies.

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Environmental Sustainability, Growth Trajectory and Gender: Contemporary Issues of Developing Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-154-9

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Book part
Publication date: 30 March 2022

Inna V. Andronova, Vladislav V. Kuzmin and David Celetti

The main purpose of this chapter is to show the correlation of the current consolidated electricity capacity of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with the forecast indicators of…

Abstract

The main purpose of this chapter is to show the correlation of the current consolidated electricity capacity of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with the forecast indicators of electricity consumption to optimize the future energy system. It highlights the main directions of the international cooperation development in the field of hydropower and analyzes the total consumption of hydropower in the EAEU. The study is based on official data provided by international hydropower and renewable energy regulators as well as national professional regulators and statistical offices. Authors predicted total hydropower consumption of the EAEU countries for the coming years using machine learning algorithms and interpreted obtained results by an econometric toolkit. It is shown that the current hydropower capacity level will not cover future consumption, in particular, due to the increasingly growing demand for cheap electricity because of massive digitalization as one of the global pandemic impacts. As a result, the necessity was identified to gradually increasing the available hydropower capacity to balance the situation. In conclusion, it's been proposed potentially possible solutions to optimize the future energy system of the single energy market of the EAEU to achieve the required level of electricity generation from power plants operating on renewable energy sources and, in particular, water resources, taking into account the consequences of Covid-19 in the energy industry.

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Current Problems of the World Economy and International Trade
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-090-0

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