CO₂ Emissions Analysis and Underlying Emission Trend in Selected Emerging Countries

Abstract

This study focuses on examining the impact of energy consumption, economic structure, population, and manufacturing output on the CO₂ emissions of selected emerging countries by utilizing the Structural Time Series Model (STSM). Based on the annual data ranging from 1970 to 2019, the model is built up using total primary energy consumption, GDP per capita, population and manufacturing value-added, and, finally, a stochastic Underlying Emission Trend as explanatory variables. STSM is extended by the introduction of the notion of Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) as a factor for exogenous effects, including development in technical progress, energy efficiency improvements, changes in human behaviors, economy, and environmental regulations. In this context, STSM and the notion of UEDT are implemented to form a forecasting model for CO₂ emissions of the selected emerging countries. The model discovers the significant influences of all selected variables of CO₂ emissions. The results suggest that the most forceful factor in CO₂ emissions is the total primary energy supply. Furthermore, while the long-term impact of economic growth on CO₂ emissions is negative for some emerging economies, it is positive for several others. The model also measures the long-term manufacturing value-added elasticity of CO₂ emissions in these emerging economies.

Citation

Guven, D., Aydın, G.K. and Kayalica, M.O. (2022), "CO₂ Emissions Analysis and Underlying Emission Trend in Selected Emerging Countries", Chakraborty, C. and Pal, D. (Ed.) Environmental Sustainability, Growth Trajectory and Gender: Contemporary Issues of Developing Economies, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 89-103. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80262-153-220221008