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The purpose of this paper is to provide an understanding of the effects of advertising based on economic cycles. To comprehend advertising effects in the restaurant industry from an economic cycle perspective, this study investigated both short- and long-run advertising effects under periods of economic contraction and expansion and compared those effects between the two economic periods.

The data were collected from the COMPUSTAT database for the restaurant industry (SIC 5,812) from 1979 to 2010. To estimate the economic cycles, the 2005 year-based real gross domestic product (GDP) was used from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Also, all variables were depreciated by the value of the US dollar in 2005. For estimation, a single equation error correction model was used to examine the short-term and long-term effects of advertising.

The results of this study indicated that both the short- and long-term effects of advertising on sales growth were more obvious in contraction periods than in expansion periods. However, the short-run effects of advertising on brand equity did not significantly differ between expansion and contraction periods. Further, the long-term effects of advertising on brand equity were greater in expansion periods than in contraction periods. The findings suggest that restaurant firms should not reduce their advertising budgets during periods of economic contraction to take advantage of superior sales growth outcomes during these periods.

The results of this study provide restaurant managers with useful practical implications. During economic contraction periods, restaurant managers should not reduce advertising budgets to take an ascendant position in terms of sales growth. Though the net positive effect at year t + 1 of contraction periods was smaller than that of expansion periods for sales growth, this is temporal and the long-run positive effect on sales growth spreads into future periods. Thus, a counter-cyclical advertising strategy could compensate for reduced sales from weak customer demands during economic contraction periods.

There have been many empirical studies on the advertising effect in the literature. However, this study examined whether the effects of advertising differ between economic expansion and contraction periods. This specificity is helpful for industrial practitioners as well as academic researchers.

Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises are the live wire of construction industry in developing countries. These classes of establishments are most affected by economic contraction and turmoil, thus affecting their performance and survivability. Hence, the purpose of this study is to investigate and prioritize the survival determinants of construction consulting organization during economic contraction in Nigeria using quantity surveying firms as a focal point.

The study adopted the descriptive-survey design and quantitative data were collected through questionnaire purposely administered to quantity surveying firms in the Southwestern part of Nigeria. The data obtained from 99 quantity surveying firms on survival determinants were analysed using various statistical analysis such as mean score, standard deviation, Mann–Whitney U test, Kruskal–Wallis H test, and so on. Principal component analysis was used to identify the principal components of survival determinants, while the factors were prioritized using fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE).

The result of the analysis reveals eight factors that significantly determines the survival of firms during the period of economic contraction. Furthermore, the eight grouped factors were prioritized accordingly namely firm's innovation and diversification, ownership structure and networking, education level and management skills, and so on.

This study investigated the survival determinants of quantity surveying firms and prioritized it with the opinions of principal partners in quantity surveying establishments. As against obtaining large survey responses from all quantity surveyors in the study area that may not have practical experience of managing firms, the limited responses received provide valid basis to broaden the horizon of professionals and other stakeholders on the key determinants for firms to survive economic turmoil.

This study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing information on prioritized factors that must be considered in an appropriate order by quantity surveying firms to survive economic contraction.

Dominance techniques are used to analyze and rank inequality, welfare, and poverty across regions in Thailand in the 1990s. Inference-based dominance methods are applied to consumption expenditure microdata from the Household Socio-Economic Surveys (SES) of 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2000. Attention is focused on the period immediately before and after the economic contraction of 1996–1997. Lorenz dominance is employed to assess inequality, while first-order Engel food share dominance is applied to rank welfare across time and among regions. Poverty is evaluated by comparing truncated food-share quantile functions. The evidence reveals that the economic crisis in 1997 seems to affect inequality in Bangkok (the richest region) more than the Northeast (the poorest region), and most dramatic changes occur in the North and South. Welfare in Bangkok is unambiguously higher than in other regions before and after economic contraction. In fact, the great economic contraction changes the rankings of economic well-being and poverty only in the North, South, and Northeast.

This paper aims to focus on the banking crises recorded in Italy in the period 1861-2016 and to propose a novel classification based upon the timing of the crisis with respect to the business cycle.

A simple and objective rule to distinguish between slowdown and inner-banking crises is introduced. The real impact of banking crises is evaluated by integrating the narrative approach with an empirical vector autoregression analysis.

First, banking crises are not always associated to economic downturns. Especially in Italy, (but this analysis can be easily extended to other countries), they have often limited their negative effects within the financial system (“inner” crises). Second, the simultaneity of macroeconomic effects (credit contraction and GDP recession) leave the causal link undetermined. Third, the empirical and narrative analyses performed testify that boom–bust mechanisms are an exception in the panorama of (Italian) banking crises; although when the economy experiences such episodes, the economic and social consequences are not only severe but also enduring.

To classify historically recognized banking crisis episodes, the authors look at credit and GDP dynamics (and their ratio) around crisis years. Relying on a single definition of crisis is avoided. The classification provides an empirical rule to determine in what way banking crises differ. The classification is mostly based on the synchronization with the business cycle and, using the documented evolution of macroeconomic aggregates, it permits to highlight the fact that a variety of interactions occur between financial and real aggregates during and around banking crises.

As to the concept of systemic banking crisis, a qualitative judgment is often adopted to select relevant episodes, thus confirming the absence of a quantitative rule in classification criteria (Chaudron and de Haan, 2014). This paper proposes a simple and objective rule to distinguish between slowdown and inner-banking crises; the former occur close to a GDP contraction, whereas the latter appear to spread their effects with no substantial evidence of output loss.

With Spanish Community Innovation Survey data, this paper tests two main hypotheses as explanation of the fall in business innovation output in the Great Recession: the aggregate demand effect (firms have lower propensity to initiate innovation projects in recession than in contraction from demand-pull and profit expectations effects) and the risk effect (a greater proportion of the initiated projects fail in recessions than in expansions).

The research methodology consists on first modelling the decision by firms to initiate innovation projects in t or not (probit model), and, second, modelling the outcomes, success or failure in t + 1 of firms that decide to initiate (Heckman model).

The empirical results support the two hypotheses. They also indicate that the sensitivity of the decision to initiate innovation projects to the aggregate demand is more pronounced among financially constrained firms than among unconstrained ones, while the risk effect appears to be independent of the financial situation of firms.

The results of the research are limited by not being able to follow up individual innovation projects, and by not having available a more representative sample of firms where non-innovators and potential innovators are represented (now is biased toward potential innovators).

The results highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability for sustained business innovation output over time and calls managers’ attention in better management of innovation risk.

The results of the paper recommend macroeconomic polies aimed at the stabilization of aggregate demand and smoothing the business cycle, as a way to contribute to the stabilization of the growth of innovation output over time. Monetary and fiscal policies that smooth the business cycle will then have significant effects in the stabilization of innovation output and, in turn, in the reduction of volatility of economic growth over time. Increasing the direct public financial aid to undertake innovation projects in recession periods will not have the same innovation output stabilization effect than the stabilization of the aggregate demand. The reason is that, as the paper points out, the innovation output of financially unconstrained firms is also affected negatively by the contraction of aggregate demand in recession periods.

This paper is the first one to investigate the differences in business innovation outputs in expansions and recessions, separating the aggregate demand and the risk effect that the organisation for economic co-operation and development identifies as main determinants of the fall in innovation output during the Great Recession. The decomposition of firms’ innovation output in the decision to initiate innovation projects and the likelihood that those initiated succeed is also new in the literature.

The paper aims to examine the coexistence of formal and informal resource sectors in resource-dependent economies, whose production depends on an exhaustible (e.g. minerals) and a renewable resource stock (e.g. forest), respectively. It then examines the implications of declining mineral stocks on public revenues, labour movements between sectors, and economic growth in an attempt to elucidate the poor economic performance of many mineral-dependent countries.

The paper presents a theoretical model that describes the coexistence of a formal and informal resource-dependent sector, where individuals can direct their work effort. It then assesses how declining mineral stocks influence labour mobility across sectors and environmental degradation.

Decreasing mineral stocks induce a relocation of labour towards informal production and deprive local authorities from public revenues collected within the formal economy. This constrains the ability to improve infrastructure and welfare over time and simultaneously imposes pressure on the local environment.

The paper provides a novel theoretical mechanism that attempts to elucidate the “resource curse”, i.e. the poor economic performance of many mineral-rich economies. It purposely explores the implications of a coexistence of formal and informal resource activities on economic development for resource-dependent economies, in order to obtain new insights into this direction.

This study forecasts the government expenditure components in Nigeria, including recurrent and capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022, based on data from 1981 to 2020.

The study employs statistical/econometric problems using the Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares approach. Expenditure forecasts involve three simulation scenarios: (1) do nothing where the economy follows its natural path; (2) an optimistic scenario, where the economy grows by specific percentages and (3) a pessimistic scenario that defines specific economic contractions.

The estimation model is informed by Wagner's law specifying a positive link between economic activities and public spending. Model estimation affirms the expected positive relationship and is relevant for generating forecasts. The out-of-sample results show that a higher proportion of the total government expenditure (7.6% in 2021 and 15.6% in 2022) is required to achieve a predefined growth target (5%).

This study offers empirical evidence that specifically requires Nigeria to invest a ratio of 3 to 1 or more in capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure for the economy to be guided on growth.