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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Łukasz Kurowski and Paweł Smaga

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies…

Abstract

Purpose

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.

Findings

Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.

Practical implications

Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.

Originality/value

The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 August 2023

Tamanna Dalwai

This study examines the influence of economic policy uncertainty on financial flexibility before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Few prior studies…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the influence of economic policy uncertainty on financial flexibility before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Few prior studies have examined this association specifically for debt and cash flexibility.

Design/methodology/approach

Using quarterly data from 2016 to 2022, 1014 observations were collected from the S&P Capital IQ database for listed tourism companies in India. The pre-pandemic period is defined as 2016 Q1 to 2020 Q1, whereas the pandemic period is from 2020 Q2 to 2022 Q3. The data are analysed using ordinary least squares, probit, logit and difference-in-difference (DID) estimation.

Findings

The evidence of this study suggests a negative association of economic policy uncertainty with debt flexibility during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings also suggest that COVID-19 induced economic policy uncertainty results in high cash flexibility. This meets the expectations for the crisis period, as firms are likely to hold more cash and less debt capacity to manage their operations. The results are robust for various estimation techniques.

Research limitations/implications

This study is limited to one emerging country and is specific to one non-financial sector. Future research could extend to more emerging countries and include other non-financial sector companies.

Practical implications

The findings of this research are useful for tourism sector managers as they can effectively manage their cash and debt flexibility during crisis periods. They will need to prioritise cash flexibility over debt flexibility to manage operations effectively. Policymakers need to provide clear and stable economic policies to help firms manage their debt levels during a crisis.

Originality/value

To the best of the author's knowledge, no existing studies have investigated the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the financial flexibility of tourism companies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, this study establishes a novel set of critical determinants, such as economic policy uncertainty.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 30 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 September 2022

Adams Adeiza, Queen Esther Oye and Philip O. Alege

This study examined the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19-induced economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Nigeria. The study considered the effects of three related shocks: EPU…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examined the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19-induced economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Nigeria. The study considered the effects of three related shocks: EPU, COVID-19 and correlated economic policy uncertainty and COVID-19 shock.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the study presented VAR evidence that fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty depresses real output. Thereafter, a nonlinear DSGE model with second-moment fiscal and monetary policy shocks was solved using the third-order Taylor approximation method.

Findings

The authors found that EPU shock is negligible and expansionary. By contrast, COVID-19 shocks have strong contractionary effects on the economy. The combined shocks capturing the COVID-19-induced EPU shock were ultimately recessionary after an initial expansionary effect. The implication is that the COVID-19 pandemic-induced EPU adversely impacted macroeconomic outcomes in Nigeria in a non-trivial manner.

Practical implications

The result shows the importance of policies to cushion the effect of uncertain fiscal and monetary policy path in the aftermath of COVID-19.

Originality/value

The originality of the paper lies in examining the impact of COVID-19 induced EPU in the context of a developing economy using the DSGE methodology.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 May 2017

Sriparna Ghosh and Bryan C. McCannon

We explore how economic freedom measurements can be used to guide policy.

Abstract

Purpose

We explore how economic freedom measurements can be used to guide policy.

Design/methodology/approach

We propose a method for creating a growth-enhancing economic freedom index, which allows for nonlinearities and interaction effects between the components to economic freedom. We use this method to illustrate that US states differ in which policy area generates the greatest gains.

Findings

To validate the method presented, we apply our index to state bond markets. Financial market participants have the incentive to properly evaluate states’ policies. If our measurement is useful, then it should correlate with bond ratings. Consistent with this hypothesis, we present evidence that state bond ratings are strongly correlated with our growth-enhancing economic freedom index.

Originality/value

It has been well-established that economic freedom is associated with good economic outcomes. Economic freedom is comprised of numerous dimensions. Thus, the marginal benefit of improving policy in one area can be expected to depend on the amount of freedom in the other dimensions. Which policy improvement is most impactful depends on the entire menu of current policies and, therefore, differs between states. Our new method can then be used as a guide to determining for a particular state which policies can be expected to impact economic well-being the most.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 9 no. 02
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2018

Dogus Emin

This paper aims to test whether the latest global financial crisis propagated contagiously from the USA to the rest of the world.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to test whether the latest global financial crisis propagated contagiously from the USA to the rest of the world.

Design/methodology/approach

If the reason of the propagation of a crisis is a normal time interdependence with the crisis origin country due to real linkages, the spread of crisis can be limited by implementing well-defined preventive policies. On the other hand, if a crisis propagates because of the speculative attacks or irrational behaviors, the “national policymakers will face difficulties in protecting their markets from such a crisis” (Kleimeier et al., 2003, p. 2). Therefore, separation of contagion and interdependence may provide crucial insights for policymakers to implement appropriate policies to prevent and/or stop the financial crisis. Hence, this paper compares the heteroscedasticity-corrected conditional correlations and dynamic conditional correlations in the tranquil and shock periods.

Findings

The findings were quite straightforward and consistent for both Forbes and Rigobon heteroscedasticity correction technique and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model. The Forbes and Rigobon technique failed to reject the null of no contagion for 25 countries in our data sample, while the DCC model failed to reject the null of no contagion for 21 countries. While heteroscedasticity-corrected correlation technique confirmed the presence of a contagion for six countries, the DCC technique confirmed the presence of a contagion for ten countries.

Originality/value

This study particularly investigates whether the subprime mortgage crisis spilled over contagiously to the rest of the world. To investigate whether there is a significant increase in the cross-market correlations between the crisis origin country, the USA and the rest of the world markets during the latest financial crisis, both heteroscedasticity-corrected correlation technique and DCC model are used.Therefore, this study possibly contributes well to the literature using a large country set and conducting the analysis from different angles for important properties.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 August 2021

Hoang Van Khieu

This paper aims to uncover the nexus between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam in the period 1995–2012.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to uncover the nexus between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam in the period 1995–2012.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a structural vector auto-regressive model of five endogenous variables including inflation, real GDP growth, budget deficit growth, money growth and the interest rate.

Findings

It is found that inflation rose in response to positive shocks to money growth and that budget deficits had no significant impact on money growth and therefore inflation. This empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent. Money growth significantly decreased in response to a positive shock to inflation; interest rates had no significant effect on inflation but considerably increased in response to positive inflation shocks. This implies that the monetary base was more effective than interest rates in fighting inflation.

Originality/value

This paper sheds light into understanding the link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam during the high-inflation period 1995–2012. The finding supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent over the period.

Details

Fulbright Review of Economics and Policy, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2635-0173

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2020

Vighneswara Swamy

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the new capital requirements under the Basel III framework on bank lending rates.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the new capital requirements under the Basel III framework on bank lending rates.

Design/methodology/approach

By constructing a stylized representative bank's financial statements, the authors show that the higher cost associated with a 1-percentage increase in the capital ratio can be recovered by increasing the bank lending rate.

Findings

The results indicate that in the case of scheduled commercial banks, a 1-percentage-point increase in the capital ratio can be recovered by a commensurate increase in the bank lending rate by 16 basis points and would go up to an extent of 94 basis points for a 6-percentage point increase assuming that the risk-weighted assets are unchanged.

Practical implications

The results assume significance as the estimations for the scenarios of changes in risk-weighted assets change in return on equity and the cost of debt. Given the enormous significance of the impact of Basel III on banks, this research outcome benefits the practitioners in the industry and researchers.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature on bank regulation and risk management with a newer and topical approach for quantification of the impacts of new regulatory standards. Another contribution of this study is that it considers three different groupings of banks: (1) scheduled commercial banks; (2) public sector banks and (3) private banks in Indian banking. This is the first of its kind in the context of studying Indian banking.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 August 2020

Tomáš Konečný and Lukáš Pfeifer

This paper aims to focus on capital-related macroprudential policies in the context of recent policy discussions on the removal of barriers to the mobility of capital and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to focus on capital-related macroprudential policies in the context of recent policy discussions on the removal of barriers to the mobility of capital and liquidity of cross-border banks in the European Union (EU).

Design/methodology/approach

This study first discusses the link between financial stability and internal resource mobility of cross-border banks. Then, it examines past heterogeneity in structural capital buffers as key macroprudential capital instruments applied in the EU and relate them to costs of policy action, degree of foreign penetration and membership in the Banking Union.

Findings

Observed phase-in patterns of structural capital buffers in the EU are broadly consistent with costs of policy action, degree of foreign penetration and membership in the Banking Union as potential factors. The process of financial integration could be further enhanced through reduced uncertainty in the application of macroprudential policies that constrain capital mobility of cross-border banks.

Originality/value

This paper anchors macroprudential policies into a wider discussion on the mechanism and implications of ring-fencing in the EU over time. It discusses two policy areas, macroprudential policies and proposals for deeper financial integration, that share the same financial stability objective but tend to emphasize different implications of the mobility of capital and liquidity of cross-border banks in the EU. The study provides a discussion of potential implications of the recent adoption of the CRRII/CRDV legislation for future heterogeneity of macroprudential policies in the EU.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 29 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2018

Mukhtar Danladi Galadima and Abubakar Wambai Aminu

The purpose of this paper is to identify the level of natural gas consumption that can be adjudged as capable of improving the growth of the Nigerian economy, to investigate…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to identify the level of natural gas consumption that can be adjudged as capable of improving the growth of the Nigerian economy, to investigate whether natural gas consumption is at optimal level in Nigeria and to examine the nature and rate to which natural gas consumption affects economic growth in Nigeria at low and high regimes.

Design/methodology/approach

The tool used to achieve the objectives of the paper is the smooth transition regression (STR) model.

Findings

The findings of the paper are that the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Nigeria is asymmetric, where the natural gas consumption threshold value in the country is 9085.36 standard cubic meters, whereas the level of its consumption in the country is below the optimal level. Further, in both low and high regimes, natural gas consumption has been found to have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria.

Practical implications

The policy implication of the paper is that natural gas consumption in Nigeria should not be less than 9085.36 standard cubic meters and the country should intensify efforts to increase the level of natural gas consumption, as it is below the optimal level and its consumption bolsters the growth of Nigerian economy.

Originality/value

What is new in this paper is its ability to use the STR model. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, such methodology has not been adopted before in such a relation.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Sherine Al-shawarby and Mai El Mossallamy

This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules.

Design/methodology/approach

The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation.

Findings

The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process.

Originality/value

A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2631-3561

Keywords

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