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The purpose of this study is to examine the differential impact of qualitative and quantitative informational signals within the merger and acquisition (M&A) press releases on deal completion and duration. A significant percentage of deals by emerging market acquirers get abandoned before completion, and those that are completed have a longer duration. The limited information about the operations of acquirers from emerging markets creates suspicion among the stakeholders involved in deal resolution, hindering the completion of deals. Thus, using the signal-feedback paradigm, authors investigate how informational signals in the M&A press release impact the deal resolution.

The study employs content analysis on M&A press releases announced by firms from five emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The technique is applied based on the exploration-exploitation framework developed by March (1991) to categorize the announced deal motives (qualitative information). Next, the authors identify the percentage of relevant quantitative information disclosed in the press release, following which results are obtained using logistic and ordinary least square regressions.

The study reports that deals with declared exploratory motives take longer to complete. Additionally, deals disclosing higher percentage of quantitative disclosure exhibit lower completion rate and increased deal duration.

This is the first study to provide evidence that familiarity bias impacts deal duration as relative to exploitation deals that are familiar to the stakeholders; exploratory deals take longer to conclude. Further, our analysis indicates that a greater percentage of quantitative disclosure may not always reduce information risk but rather be interpreted negatively in the form of the acquirer’s overconfidence in the deal’s potential.

The study aims to yield evidence on the relation between the quality of governance characteristics and the firms' financial credibility involved in financial violations.

The study uses annual data ranging from 2000 to 2018. The sample consists of 154 nonfinancial firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, comprising 77 fraudulent and 77 non-fraudulent companies. To examine the relationship between improvements in the governance structure and financial credibility of the firms, hypotheses are tested using the univariate analysis and multivariate regression model through the ordinary least square method.

The results affirm that fraud firms are possessed with poor governance structure compared to control firms in the pre-fraud year. The findings further imply that an improved governance structure brings foremost performance in stock price. The results of the study divulge that board of directors characteristic i.e. change in outside directors' percentage has a significant positive impact (β = 0.015, p = 0.05) on the financial credibility of the firms. The governance variables in terms of CEO-COB joint position has a significant negative (β = −0.824, p = 0.05) association with the financial credibility, which means that whenever CEO-COB joint position enhances, the financial credibility of the firms decreases. However, governance variables in the context of blockholders percentage has a significant positive (β = 0.13, p = 0.01) impact on financial credibility. The results of the study overall indicate that the governance structure has a significant influence on the financial performance of firms in the stock market.

The study provides an understanding of how fraudulent firms rehabilitate their governance structure and accrue economic benefits by the means of financial credibility after when the fraud is made public. It also adds to the literature in the area of corporate frauds specifically the role of governance structure in the financial performance of fraudulent firms in the stock market; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while, in developing countries, little work has been done.

This paper aims to examine the origins of value co-creation (VCC) knowledge streams, vis-a-vis their progression over the past 18 years. The study explores how knowledge of this discipline emerged across the tripartite strategic paradigms of business transformation.

Co-citation analysis (CCA) and co-word analysis (CWA) are used as bibliometric techniques, for which, a group of articles is retrieved using Scopus’s usual keyword-based search. The initial collection consists of 3,431 research articles published in business and management publications. By explaining the article clusters generated through CCA and keyword connections generated through CWA, the findings outline the origins and development of VCC research. A CWA-based chronological study adds further insights to the development of VCC research themes.

The results depict that VCC research has grown multifold in the past 18 years, whereby it has shifted its attention from a dyadic interaction approach to a multistakeholder ecosystem-based approach detailing the phenomenological instances of resource integration and institutional processes. Notably, extant research in this field has grown at a much faster rate since 2008. In fact, a stronger concentration of research emerged in the experience domain, particularly in terms of hedonic services. Development of engagement platforms has been driven by research into technologies such as IoT and artificial intelligence.

The theoretical framework of the VCC paradigm is used to describe the aggregation of co-creation research around the three strategic pillars. This framework is useful for business strategy and to track VCC research over time.

This work identifies the practices and strategies of VCC at three different levels: capacity, platform and experience. The study offers insights into a variety of co-creation practices at their respective levels, incorporating micro-level dyadic interactions and macro-level processes in a service ecosystem.

This study uses different bibliometric methodologies to investigate the development of this scientific field over time. “Document co-citation” analysis, a more preferred bibliometric technique under CCA, is used to construct the cluster of theoretical cores of this area. The results are classified under the strategic framework of the co-creation paradigm (Ramaswamy and Ozcan, 2014).

This study investigates the impact of the fire decay phase on structural damage using the sectional analysis method. The primary objective of this work is to forecast the non-dimensional capacity parameters for the axial and flexural load-carrying capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) sections for heating and the subsequent post-heating phase (decay phase) of the fire.

The sectional analysis method is used to determine the moment and axial capacities. The findings of sectional analysis and heat transfer for the heating stage are initially validated, and the analysis subsequently proceeds to determine the load capacity during the fire’s heating and decay phases by appropriately incorporating non-dimensional sectional and material parameters. The numerical analysis includes four fire curves with different cooling rates and steel percentages.

The study’s findings indicate that the rate at which the cooling process occurs after undergoing heating substantially impacts the axial and flexural capacity. The maximum degradation in axial and flexural capacity occurred in the range of 15–20% for cooling rates of 3 °C/min and 5 °C/min as compared to the capacity obtained at 120 min of heating for all steel percentages. As the fire cooling rate reduced to 1 °C/min, the highest deterioration in axial and flexural capacity reached 48–50% and 42–46%, respectively, in the post-heating stage.

The established non-dimensional parameters for axial and flexural capacity are limited to the analysed section in the study owing to the thermal profile, however, this can be modified depending on the section geometry and fire scenario.

The study primarily focusses on the degradation of axial and flexural capacity at various time intervals during the entire fire exposure, including heating and cooling. The findings obtained showed that following the completion of the fire’s heating phase, the structural capacity continued to decrease over the subsequent post-heating period. It is recommended that structural members' fire resistance designs encompass both the heating and cooling phases of a fire. Since the capacity degradation varies with fire duration, the conventional method is inadequate to design the load capacity for appropriate fire safety. Therefore, it is essential to adopt a performance-based approach while designing structural elements' capacity for the desired fire resistance rating. The proposed technique of using non-dimensional parameters will effectively support predicting the load capacity for required fire resistance.

The fire-resistant requirements for reinforced concrete structures are generally established based on standard fire exposure conditions, which account for the fire growth phase. However, it is important to note that concrete structures can experience internal damage over time during the decay phase of fires, which can be quantitatively determined using the proposed non-dimensional parameter approach.

Completing Right-of-Way (ROW) acquisition process on schedule is critical to avoid delays and cost overruns on transportation projects. However, transportation agencies face challenges in accurately forecasting ROW acquisition timelines in the early stage of projects due to complex nature of acquisition process and limited design information. There is a need of improving accuracy of estimating ROW acquisition duration during the early phase of project development and quantitatively identifying risk factors affecting the duration.

The quantitative research methodology used to develop the forecasting model includes an ensemble algorithm based on decision tree and adaptive boosting techniques. A dataset of Georgia Department of Transportation projects held from 2010 to 2019 is utilized to demonstrate building the forecasting model. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify critical drivers of ROW acquisition durations.

The forecasting model developed in this research achieves a high accuracy to predict ROW durations by explaining 74% of the variance in ROW acquisition durations using project features, which is outperforming single regression tree, multiple linear regression and support vector machine. Moreover, number of parcels, average cost estimation per parcel, length of projects, number of condemnations, number of relocations and type of work are found to be influential factors as drivers of ROW acquisition duration.

This research contributes to the state of knowledge in estimating ROW acquisition timeline through (1) developing a novel machine learning model to accurately estimate ROW acquisition timelines, and (2) identifying drivers (i.e. risk factors) of ROW acquisition durations. The findings of this research will provide transportation agencies with insights on how to improve practices in scheduling ROW acquisition process.

The purpose of this paper is to show how data mining techniques can improve the performance management of the judiciary, helping judges in steering position with specific and timely measures. It explores different approaches to analyse the length of trials, based on the case of an Italian judicial office.

The paper presents a temporal analysis to compare the timeliness of trials, using data and process mining approaches with the support of a specific software to represent graphically the results. Data were gathered directly from the office data base, improving precision and the opportunity to monitor specific phases of the trials.

The results highlight the progress that can be reached using data mining approaches to develop performance analyses helping courts to correct inefficiencies and to manage the personnel distribution, overcoming the critical comments arisen against traditional KPI (Raine, 2000). The work proposes a methodology to analyse cases deriving from different juridical matters useful to set up a performance monitoring system that could be diffused to different courts.

The limitations of the research regard the analysis of a selected, limited number of cases in terms of judicial matters.

Data mining techniques can improve the performance management processes in providing more accurate feedback to the judicial offices leaders and increasing the organisational learning.

The performance of the judiciary is one of the relevant issues that emerged in the recent decade in the field of public sector reforms. Several reasons explain this interest, which has gone beyond the specific legal disciplines to involve public policy, management, economics and ICT studies.

Considering the literature on the judiciary (Visser et al., 2019; Di Martino et al., 2021; Troisi and Alfano, 2023) the contribution differs as both the methodological approach and the predictive analysis considers the intrinsic differences that define cases belonging to different juridical matters performing a cross-sectional analysis, with a specific focus of process variants.

Pre-construction of a project comprises stages that are pivotal for the procurement performance. It is defined as the duration from the project's initiation to construction. However, Private Public Partnerships (PPPs) have been subjected to a long pre-construction, thereby leading to an inefficient development process. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to pay attention to the influencing factors elongating the pre-construction duration.

Based on data of 5,677 PPP projects between 2009 and 2021 in China, the authors adopt the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model in duration analysis to empirically analyze the following underlying dynamics determining the duration of PPP pre-construction stages: (1) policy uncertainty; (2) corruption; and (3) procurement method selection. To observe the influencing paths more specifically, the authors divided the pre-construction duration into the pre-tendering period and tendering period and regressed them separately.

The results indicate that the pre-construction duration is significantly prolonged with increased policy uncertainty and corruption degree as well as the use of tendering methods. Meanwhile, the above factors have a greater impact on the pre-tendering period than the tendering period.

The contribution of this study is twofold: (1) theoretically, this paper provides new evidence on the impact of PPP policy uncertainty, corruption and procurement method selection on the pre-construction duration. It complements empirical studies on the factors elongating the time efficiency of PPPs projects. (2) In practice, it provides a specific path for the government to improve the time efficiency of PPPs.

The authors analyse the determinants of loan defaults in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loans in India from the survival duration perspective to draw inferences that have implications for lenders and policymakers.

The authors use the Kaplan–Meier survivor function and the Cox Proportional Hazard model to analyse 4.29 lakhs MSME loan account data originated by a large bank having a national presence from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2020.

The estimated Kaplan–Meier survival function by various categories of loan and socio-demographic characteristics reflects heterogeneity and identifies the trigger points for actions. The authors identify the key identified default drivers. The authors find that the subsidy amount is more effective at the lower level and its effectiveness diminishes significantly beyond an optimum level. The simulated values show that the effects of rising interest rates on survival rates vary across industries and types of loans.

The identified points of inflection in the default dynamics would help banks to initiate actions to prevent loan defaults. The default drivers identified would foster more nuanced lending decisions. The study estimation of the survival rate based on the simulated values of interest rate and subsidy provides insight for policymakers.

This study is the first to investigate default drivers in MSME loans in India using micro-data. The study findings will act as signposts for the planners to guide the direction of the interest rate to be charged by banks in MSME loans, interest subvention and tailoring subsidy levels to foster sustainable growth.

Buildings are among the biggest contributors to environmental impacts. To achieve energy-saving and decarbonisation objectives while also improving living conditions, it is imperative to undertake large-scale renovations of existing buildings, which constitute the greater part of building stock and have relatively low energy efficiency. However, building renovation projects poses significant challenges owing to the absence of optimised tools and methods for planning and executing renovation works, coupled with the need for a high degree of interaction with occupants.

This paper describes the development of an automated process, based on building information modelling (BIM) and the principal component analysis method, for overcoming building renovation challenges. The process involves the assessment and simulation of renovation scenarios in terms of duration, cost, effort needed and disruptive potential. The proposed process was tested in three case studies; multi-residence apartment buildings comprising different construction components and systems, located in Greece, France and Denmark, on which six different renovation strategies were evaluated using sensitivity analysis.

The developed tool was successfully able to model and simulate the six renovation scenarios across the three demonstration sites. The ability to simulate various renovation scenarios for a given project can help to strategise renovation interventions based on selected key performance indicators as well as their correlation at two different levels: the building level and the renovated surface area level.

The objectives of this paper are twofold: firstly, to present an automated process, using BIM, for evaluating and comparing renovation scenarios in terms of duration, cost, workers needed and disruptive potential; next, to show the subsequent testing of the process and the analysis of its applicability and behaviour when applied on three live demonstration sites located in three different European countries (France, Greece and Denmark), involving six renovation scenarios.

Earned value management (EVM)–based models for estimating project actual duration (AD) and cost at completion using various methods are continuously developed to improve the accuracy and actualization of predicted values. This study primarily aimed to examine natural gradient boosting (NGBoost-2020) with the classification and regression trees (CART) base model (base learner). To the best of the authors' knowledge, this concept has never been applied to EVM AD forecasting problem. Consequently, the authors compared this method to the single K-nearest neighbor (KNN) method, the ensemble method of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost-2016) with the CART base model and the optimal equation of EVM, the earned schedule (ES) equation with the performance factor equal to 1 (ES1). The paper also sought to determine the extent to which the World Bank's two legal factors affect countries and how the two legal causes of delay (related to institutional flaws) influence AD prediction models.

In this paper, data from 30 construction projects of various building types in Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Malaysia and Nigeria (due to the high number of delayed projects and the detrimental effects of these delays in these countries) were used to develop three models. The target variable of the models was a dimensionless output, the ratio of estimated duration to completion (ETC(t)) to planned duration (PD). Furthermore, 426 tracking periods were used to build the three models, with 353 samples and 23 projects in the training set, 73 patterns (17% of the total) and six projects (21% of the total) in the testing set. Furthermore, 17 dimensionless input variables were used, including ten variables based on the main variables and performance indices of EVM and several other variables detailed in the study. The three models were subsequently created using Python and several GitHub-hosted codes.

For the testing set of the optimal model (NGBoost), the better percentage mean (better%) of the prediction error (based on projects with a lower error percentage) of the NGBoost compared to two KNN and ES1 single models, as well as the total mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean lags (MeLa) (indicating model stability) were 100, 83.33, 5.62 and 3.17%, respectively. Notably, the total MAPE and MeLa for the NGBoost model testing set, which had ten EVM-based input variables, were 6.74 and 5.20%, respectively. The ensemble artificial intelligence (AI) models exhibited a much lower MAPE than ES1. Additionally, ES1 was less stable in prediction than NGBoost. The possibility of excessive and unusual MAPE and MeLa values occurred only in the two single models. However, on some data sets, ES1 outperformed AI models. NGBoost also outperformed other models, especially single models for most developing countries, and was more accurate than previously presented optimized models. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the NGBoost predicted outputs of 30 projects using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. All variables demonstrated an effect on ETC(t)/PD. The results revealed that the most influential input variables in order of importance were actual time (AT) to PD, regulatory quality (RQ), earned duration (ED) to PD, schedule cost index (SCI), planned complete percentage, rule of law (RL), actual complete percentage (ACP) and ETC(t) of the ES optimal equation to PD. The probabilistic hybrid model was selected based on the outputs predicted by the NGBoost and XGBoost models and the MAPE values from three AI models. The 95% prediction interval of the NGBoost–XGBoost model revealed that 96.10 and 98.60% of the actual output values of the testing and training sets are within this interval, respectively.

Due to the use of projects performed in different countries, it was not possible to distribute the questionnaire to the managers and stakeholders of 30 projects in six developing countries. Due to the low number of EVM-based projects in various references, it was unfeasible to utilize other types of projects. Future prospects include evaluating the accuracy and stability of NGBoost for timely and non-fluctuating projects (mostly in developed countries), considering a greater number of legal/institutional variables as input, using legal/institutional/internal/inflation inputs for complex projects with extremely high uncertainty (such as bridge and road construction) and integrating these inputs and NGBoost with new technologies (such as blockchain, radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, building information modeling (BIM) and Internet of things (IoT)).

The legal/intuitive recommendations made to governments are strict control of prices, adequate supervision, removal of additional rules, removal of unfair regulations, clarification of the future trend of a law change, strict monitoring of property rights, simplification of the processes for obtaining permits and elimination of unnecessary changes particularly in developing countries and at the onset of irregular projects with limited information and numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, the managers and stakeholders of this group of projects were informed of the significance of seven construction variables (institutional/legal external risks, internal factors and inflation) at an early stage, using time series (dynamic) models to predict AD, accurate calculation of progress percentage variables, the effectiveness of building type in non-residential projects, regular updating inflation during implementation, effectiveness of employer type in the early stage of public projects in addition to the late stage of private projects, and allocating reserve duration (buffer) in order to respond to institutional/legal risks.

Ensemble methods were optimized in 70% of references. To the authors' knowledge, NGBoost from the set of ensemble methods was not used to estimate construction project duration and delays. NGBoost is an effective method for considering uncertainties in irregular projects and is often implemented in developing countries. Furthermore, AD estimation models do fail to incorporate RQ and RL from the World Bank's worldwide governance indicators (WGI) as risk-based inputs. In addition, the various WGI, EVM and inflation variables are not combined with substantial degrees of delay institutional risks as inputs. Consequently, due to the existence of critical and complex risks in different countries, it is vital to consider legal and institutional factors. This is especially recommended if an in-depth, accurate and reality-based method like SHAP is used for analysis.