Search results

Many studies have shown that from a theoretical and empirical point of view, downside risk-based measures of risk are better than the traditional ones. Despite academic appeal and practical implications, downside risk has not been thoroughly examined in markets outside developed country markets. Using downside beta as a measure of downside risk, this study examines the relationship between downside beta and stock returns in Indian equity market, an emerging market with unique investor, asset and market characteristics.

This is an empirical study done by using ranked portfolio return analysis and regression analysis methodologies.

The study results show that downside risk, as measured by downside beta, is distinctly priced in the Indian equity market. There is a direct positive relationship between downside beta and contemporaneous realized returns, indicating a premium for downside risk. Downside risk carries a higher weightage than upside potential in the aggregate return of the stock portfolios. Downside beta is a better measure of systematic risk than conventional market beta and downside coskewness.

The empirical results support the adoption of downside beta in practice and provide a case for replacing traditional beta with downside beta in asset pricing applications, trading and investment strategies, and capital allocation decision-making.

This is one of the first in-depth studies examining downside beta in Indian equity markets using a broad sample of individual stock returns covering a wide time range of 22 years. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first one to compare downside beta and downside coskewness using individual stock data from the Indian equity market.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether downside-risk measures help to explain why households largely refrain from investing in Exchange Traded Funds that replicate broad and internationally diversified market indices, so-called XTFs, although studies frequently recommend to do so.

The paper analyzes whether evaluating risk in terms of downside-risk measures which reflect households' interpretation of risk closer than the standard deviation (SD) of returns, yields less risk-return-enhancements, and thus, fewer incentives for households to invest in XTFs. Household portfolios are compiled by combining stylized portfolio compositions that involve multiple asset classes and German households' security holdings. The data set covers the period from January 2014 to December 2016 and includes 47,388 securities.

The results indicate that none of the downside-risk measures can help to explain the reluctance of households to invest in XTFs. On the flip side, the results show that all stylized household portfolios can enhance the risk-return position from employing XTFs, regardless of the underlying risk measure. This supports the advice to invest in XTFs and extends it upon households that evaluate risk in terms of downside-risk.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to investigate risk-return-enhancements from XTFs while simultaneously considering various downside-risk measures and multiple asset classes of household portfolios.

Real options theory posits that multinationality provides additional operating flexibility and helps firms reduce downside risk. This study aims to explore the effects of chief executive officer (CEO) characteristics on the downside risk implication of multinationality in Chinese multinational corporations (MNCs).

This study gathers a sample of Chinese MNCs from 2009 to 2020 and deploys a Tobit panel estimation model with fixed effects in the empirical analysis.

This study finds that multinationality has a significant negative effect on downside risk. The downside risk reduction effect of multinationality is stronger in firms led by older CEOs, women CEOs, CEOs with overseas experience or broader functional backgrounds or those with higher educational levels. Additionally, the above effects of CEO characteristics on the downside risk reduction effect of multinationality are more pronounced in firms with smaller top management team (TMT) sizes. Hence, the findings show that the multinational network constructed by Chinese MNCs could offer great operating flexibility, and CEO characteristics and the CEO–TMT interface play an important role in achieving real options flexibility from multinationality.

This study shows that multinationality could be an effective way for emerging market firms to reduce business risk. This study helps identify CEO characteristics that are associated with real option performance and emphasizes that CEO personal attitudes and abilities could influence the real options flexibility obtained from multinationality. This study also contributes to the understanding of micro foundations in international business by focusing on the role of CEO characteristics and the CEO–TMT interface in the downside risk implications of multinationality.

This paper aims to identify and examine the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs).

Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and lower partial moment‐CAPM (LPM‐CAPM) are employed to compute both systematic risk and downside systematic risk. The methodology of Patel and Olsen and Chaudhry et al. is adopted to examine the determinants of systematic risk and downside systematic risk.

The results confirm that systematic risk and downside systematic risk can be individually identified. There is little evidence to support the existence of linkages between systematic risk in Australian LPTs and financial/management structure determinants. On the other hand, downside systematic risk is directly related to the leverage/management structure of a LPT. The results are also robust after controlling for the LPTs' investment characteristics and varying target rates of return.

Investors and real estate analysts should conscious with the higher returns from high leverage and internally managed LPTs. Although there is no evidence that these higher returns are related to higher systematic risk, there could be the compensation for higher downside systematic risk.

This study provides invaluable insights into the management of real estate risk in Australian LPTs with implications for REITs in other countries. Unlike previous studies of systematic risk in REITs or LPTs, this is the first study to assess downside systematic risk and explore the determinants of downside systematic risk in LPTs.

The purpose of this paper is to explore how multinationality affects multinational companies’ (MNCs) downside risk and the moderate effects of ownership structure in the setting of emerging markets based on Chinese publicly traded manufacturing MNCs.

The author derives hypotheses based on real options theory and agency theory, and tests hypotheses by using Tobit model and a unique data set of Chinese A-shared publicly traded manufacturing MNCs in the period of 2010–2016.

The empirical results suggest that multinationality is positively related to downside risk and this effect is subjected to ownership structure for firms in emerging markets. In particular, multinationality of MNCs with a high level of ownership concentration, managerial ownership and institutional ownership is more likely to reduce downside risk.

The main conclusion of this paper highlights the importance of ownership structure of MNCs in explaining the real options value of multinationality, and conveys to owners of MNCs in China and other emerging markets the need to strengthen firms’ governance if they want to maximize the benefits of multinational operations.

This study extends existing studies by taking ownership structure into consideration and highlighting the importance of agency problem in the examination of multinationality and downside risk, which provides a potential explanation for previous mixed evidence. This study also provides new evidence for the relationship between multinationality and downside risk by using a unique sample from China, an emerging market country.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the mean-variance capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and downside risk-based CAPM (DR-CAPM) developed by Bawa and Lindenberg (1977), Harlow and Rao (1989), and Estrada (2002) to assess which downside beta better explains expected stock returns. The paper also explores whether investors respond differently to stocks that co-vary with declining market than to those of co-vary with rising market.

The paper uses monthly data of closing prices of stocks listed at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). The data cover the period from January 2000 to December 2012. The standard, downside, and upside betas are estimated for different sub-periods,and then,their validity to quantify the risk premium is tested for subsequent sub-periods in a cross sectional regression framework. Though our empirical methodology is similar to that of Fama and MacBeth (1973) for testing the CAPM and the DR-CAPM, our approach to estimate the downside beta is different from earlier studies. In particular, we follow Estrada ' s (2002) suggestions and obtain the correct and unbiased estimation of the downside beta by running the time series regression through origin. The authors carry out the two-pass regression analysis using the generalized method of moment (GMM) in the first pass and the generalized least squares (GLS) estimation method in the second pass.

The results indicate that the mean-variance CAPM shows a negative risk premium for monthly returns of selected stocks. However, the results for the DR-CAPM of Bawa and Lindenberg (1977) and Harlow and Rao (1989) provide evidence of a positive risk premium for the downside beta. In contrast, the DR-CAPM of Estrada (2002) shows a negative risk premium in some sub-periods while the positive premium in the others. By comparing the risk premium for both downside and upside risks in a single-equation framework, the authors show that the stocks that co-vary with a declining market are compensated with a positive premium for bearing the downside risk. Yet, the risk premium for stocks that are negatively correlated with declining market returns is negative for all the three-downside betas in all the examined sub-periods.

The empirical findings of the paper are of great significance for investors for designing effective investment strategies. Specifically, the results help investors to identify an appropriate measure of risk and to construct well-diversified portfolio. The results are also useful for firm managers in capital budgeting decision-making process as they enable them to cost equities appropriately. The results also suggest that the risk-return relationship implied by mean-variance CAPM is negative and therefore this model is not suitable for gauging the risk associated with stocks traded in KSE. Yet, the authors show that DR-CAPM out performs in quantifying the risk premium.

Unlike prior empirical studies, the authors follow Estrada’s (2002) suggestions where downside beta is calculated using regression through origin to find correct and unbiased beta. Departing from the existing literature the authors estimate three different versions of DR-CAPM along with the standard CAPM for comparison purpose. Finally, the authors apply sophisticated econometrics methods that help in lessening the problem of non-synchronous trading and the issue of non-normality of returns distribution.

This paper aims to extend the understanding of how real options reasoning (ROR) is associated with downside risk and how a firm’s portfolio (explore and exploit) of investment activities affects managers’ ability to effectively apply ROR in relation to downside risk.

The survey method is used. It is applied to a population of Danish firms, which in 2018 had more than 100 employees. The chief financial officer was the target respondent.

This study finds that a higher level of ROR is associated with lower levels of downside risk. ROR’s association with lower levels of the downside risk is also moderated by the level of relative exploration orientation in a negative direction.

The field of ROR research on downside risk and portfolio subadditivity has been dominated by research focused on multinationality. This paper extends extant literature on ROR by studying ROR as a multidimensional construct of firm action, which is associated with lower levels of downside risk, also when studied outside of a multinationality setting. This is the case when ROR is implemented as a complete system. This paper also applies a framework of exploitation and exploration to show that findings on subadditivity in options portfolios caused by asset correlations extend outside the scope of multinationality and into one of product/service innovation.

The beta coefficient used for the cost of equity calculation is at the heart of the valuation process. This study conducts comparative analyses of the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and downside CAPM risk parameters to gain further insight into which risk parameter leads to better performing risk measures at explaining stock returns.

The study conducts a comparative analysis of 16 risk measures at explaining the stock returns of 4531 companies of 20 developed and 25 emerging market index for 2000–2018. The analyses are conducted using both the global and local indices and both USD and local currency returns. Calculated risk measures are analyzed in a panel data setup using a univariate model. Results are investigated in country-specific and model-specific subsets.

The results show that (1) downside betas are better than CAPM betas at explaining the stock returns, (2) both risk measure groups perform better for emerging markets, (3) global downside beta model performs better than global beta model, implying the existence of the contagion effect, (4) high significance levels of total risk and unsystematic risk measures further support the shortfall of CAPM betas and (5) higher correlation of markets after negative shocks such as pandemics puts global CAPM based downside beta to a more reliable position.

The data are limited to the index securities as beta could be time varying.

Results overall provide insight into the cost of equity calculation and emerging market assets valuation.

The framework and methodology enable us to compare and contrast CAPM and downside-CAPM risk measures at the firm level, at the global/local level and in terms of the level of market development.

This paper aims to investigate patterns in UK stock returns related to downside risk, with particular focus on stock returns during financial crises.

First, stocks are sorted into five quintile portfolios based on the relevant beta values (classic beta, downside beta and upside beta, calculated by the moving window approach). Second, patterns of portfolio returns are examined during various sub-periods. Finally, predictive powers of beta and downside beta are examined.

The downside risk is observed to have a significant positive impact on contemporaneous stock returns and a negative impact on future returns in general. In contrast, an inverse relationship between risk and return is observed when stocks are sorted by beta, contrary to the classic literature. UK stock returns exhibit clear time sensitivity, especially during financial crises.

This paper focuses on the impact of the downside risk on UK stock returns, assessed via a comprehensive sub-period analysis. This paper fills the gap in the existing literature, in which very few studies examine the time sensitivity in relation to the downside risk and the risk-return anomaly in the UK stock market using a long sample period.

The paper analyzes downside and upside risk spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

By using VAR-ADCC models and conditional value at risk (CoVaR) techniques, downside and upside risk spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China are analyzed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The results suggested existence of a significant and asymmetrical two-way risk transmission between majority of pair markets, but the degree of asymmetry differs according to the use of the entire cumulative distributions or distribution tails. Downside and upside risk spillovers are significantly larger before the COVID-19 pandemic in all cases except between CAC 40/DAX and S&P/SSE pairs.

The paper used CoVaR and delta-CoVaR to investigate the downside and upside spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.