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The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel delay grey incidence analysis model to analyze drivers and obstacles of university R&D performance.

With respect to the fact that university R&D activities typically experience two stages of knowledge creation and technology transfer, and different drivers and obstacles come into play to affect the conversion of R&D investment to outcomes at each stage, based on the thought of grey incidence analysis and the specific characteristics of science and technology (sci-tech) development, a novel delay grey incidence analysis model is proposed in this paper, and then according to the yearbook statistical data, Chinese university R&D activities are investigated and the drivers and obstacles of university R&D performance are analyzed.

The results show that the R&D full-time staff and R&D funds of basic research are the key drivers of influencing factors, and the sci-tech innovation talents in universities’ R&D institutions and experiment development funds are the restraining factors to improve R&D performance in the stage of knowledge creation; the expenses of R&D achievement application and technology service and the full-time staff of achievement application and technology service are the key drivers and obstacles of influencing the aggregate amount of patent sale respectively.

This research helps policy makers to reflect on their university R&D policies and understand how to enhance the technology transfer rate in China.

The paper succeeds in identifying key drivers and obstacles of affecting university R&D performance in China by examining the input and output incidence at both the knowledge creation and technology transfer stages.

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the progress in grey system research during 2000-2015, so as to present some important new concepts, models, methods and a new framework of grey system theory.

The new thinking, new models and new methods of grey system theory and their applications are presented in this paper. It includes algorithm rules of grey numbers based on the “kernel” and the degree of greyness of grey numbers, the concept of general grey numbers, the synthesis axiom of degree of greyness of grey numbers and their operations; the general form of buffer operators of grey sequence operators; the four basic models of grey model GM(1,1), such as even GM, original difference GM, even difference GM, discrete GM and the suitable sequence type of each basic model, and suitable range of most used grey forecasting models; the similarity degree of grey incidences, the closeness degree of grey incidences and the three-dimensional absolute degree of grey incidence of grey incidence analysis models; the grey cluster model based on center-point and end-point mixed triangular whitenization functions; the multi-attribute intelligent grey target decision model, the two stages decision model with grey synthetic measure of grey decision models; grey game models, grey input-output models of grey combined models; and the problems of robust stability for grey stochastic time-delay systems of neutral type, distributed-delay type and neutral distributed-delay type of grey control, etc. And the new framework of grey system theory is given as well.

The problems which remain for further studying are discussed at the end of each section. The reader could know the general picture of research and developing trend of grey system theory from this paper.

A lot of successful practical applications of the new models to solve various problems have been found in many different areas of natural science, social science and engineering, including spaceflight, civil aviation, information, metallurgy, machinery, petroleum, chemical industry, electrical power, electronics, light industries, energy resources, transportation, medicine, health, agriculture, forestry, geography, hydrology, seismology, meteorology, environment protection, architecture, behavioral science, management science, law, education, military science, etc. These practical applications have brought forward definite and noticeable social and economic benefits. It demonstrates a wide range of applicability of grey system theory, especially in the situation where the available information is incomplete and the collected data are inaccurate.

The reader is given a general picture of grey systems theory as a new model system and a new framework for studying problems where partial information is known; especially for uncertain systems with few data points and poor information. The problems remaining for further studying are identified at the end of each section.

Grey modeling technique is an important element of grey system theory, and academic articles applied to agricultural science research have been published since 1985, proving the broad applicability and effectiveness of the technique from different aspects and providing a new means to solve agricultural science problems. The analysis of the connotation and trend of the application of grey modeling technique in agricultural science research contributes to the enrichment of grey technique and the development of agricultural science in multiple dimensions.

Based on the relevant literature selected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the Web of Science, SpiScholar and other databases in the past 37 years (1985–2021), this paper firstly applied the bibliometric method to quantitatively visualize and systematically analyze the trend of publication, productive author, productive institution, and highly cited literature. Then, the literature is combed by the application of different grey modeling techniques in agricultural science research, and the literature research progress is systematically analyzed.

The results show that grey model technology has broad prospects in the field of agricultural science research. Agricultural universities and research institutes are the main research forces in the application of grey model technology in agricultural science research, and have certain inheritance. The application of grey model technology in agricultural science research has wide applicability and precise practicability.

By analyzing and summarizing the application trend of grey model technology in agricultural science research, the research hotspot, research frontier and valuable research directions of grey model technology in agricultural science research can be more clearly grasped.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between outpatient satisfaction and the five constructs of healthcare projects’ service quality in Pakistan using Deng’s grey incidence analysis (GIA) model, absolute degree GIA model (ADGIA), a novel second synthetic degree GIA (SSDGIA) model and two approaches of decision-making under uncertainty.

The study proposes a new synthetic GIA model and demonstrates its feasibility on data (N=221) collected from both public and private sector healthcare projects of Punjab, the most populous province of Pakistan, using a self-administered questionnaire developed using the original SERVQUAL approach.

The results of decision analysis approach indicated that outpatients’ satisfaction from the private sector healthcare projects is higher as compared to the public healthcare projects’. The results from the proposed model revealed that tangibility and reliability play an important role in shaping the patient satisfaction in the public and private sectors, respectively.

The study is pioneer in evaluating a healthcare system’s service quality using grey system theory. The study proposes the SSDGIA model as a novel method to evaluate parameters comprehensively based on their mutual association (given by absolute degree of grey incidence) and inter-dependencies (given by Deng’s degree of grey incidence), and tests the new model in the given scenario. The study is novel in terms of its analysis of data and modelling. The study also proposes a comprehensive structure of the healthcare delivery system of Pakistan.

Almost all projects in the world are delayed, and sometimes even lead to the full bankruptcy of their beneficiaries. These delays can be calculated using techniques, but most importantly, there must be a fair and realistic division of delays between project beneficiaries. The most valid delay calculation techniques belong to the SCL Global Protocol, but they also have significant drawbacks, such as these: (1) They do not have the capability to prevent project delays (Delay Risk Management); (2) The protocol identifies and introduces any delays in activities with a ratio of one to one as a delay (Effective Delay); (3) It also does not offer the capability to share delays between stakeholders, which is a huge weakness. Floating in the base schedule activities is one of the cost control tools of projects, but it can hide project delays. In this paper, the researchers believe that the floating ownership belongs to the project and not belong to the stakeholders. This is the main tool for analyzing and sharing delays in this research.

The research methodology adopted included an extensive literature review, expert interviews, use of questionnaire and designing three innovative linked together models by researchers.

In this research, an integrated technique is introduced which has the following capabilities; delay risk control, result-based delay analysis and stakeholders delay sharing. This technique with an incursive and defensive approach implements claims management principles and calculates, respectively, non-attributable and attributable delays for each beneficiary.

This creativity led to the introduction of the Incursive and Defensive (In-De) technique; in the SCL protocol techniques, none of these capabilities exist.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate, analyse and select the best suppliers for Satrec Vitalait Milk Company, operating in Senegal, based on criteria obtained from economic, environmental and social dimensions of sustainable supply chain management, through the application of Deng’s grey relational analysis (GRA) model, absolute GRA model (ADGRA) and a novel second synthetic GRA (SSGRA) model, combined with one decision making under the uncertainty-based model, namely, the Hurwicz criteria.

The research adopts a new synthetic GRA model and highlights its reliability on small sample gathered from four senior experts of the company who administered a total number of 28 specialists operating in four departments of the company, through the employment of a self-administered questionnaire designed based on criteria identified from the literature that were refined via a Q-sort model.

The outcomes of the research methodology designated that all the selected five suppliers present a degree of attaining sustainability due to the fact that supplying unprocessed milk does not require the use of polluting methods for stocking and transportation. The undertaken study specifies that all the socio-environmental criteria play a crucial role in shaping the sustainability level of Satrec Vitalait’s suppliers and demonstrates the accuracy of the results obtained through the second synthetic degree of grey relation analysis for ranking the suppliers. Supplier 2 was found to be the best supplier for the company and, as result, a model for other suppliers to mimic.

Future researchers can replicate the GRA-based supply chain model proposed in the current study in different environments especially in the context of green supply chain. Also, in future the SSGRA model, while using the bidirectional ADGRA instead of the conventional ADGRA, should also be tested, especially when the data sequences associated with different supply chain parameters have inconsistent directions. Also, comparative analysis of SSGRA-based results with that of modern statistical methods like structural equation modelling can also be used for future explorations. Furthermore, the current study is built upon the data associated with the Satrec Vitalait Milk Company (Senegal); therefore, the findings should be generalised with caution.

The study can be seen as a first-stepping stone for gauging and selecting the best sustainable supplier for Satrec Vitalait using grey system theory. For purpose of attaining the research goal, the SSGRA was exploited as an innovative experimental approach to estimate relationships between criteria with regard to the sustainability level of the company’s suppliers. Under this scope, relationships between criteria themselves and their goal were depicted by Deng’s degree of GRA and AGRA, respectively. The research is innovative by means of the framework of its methodology and data analysis.

This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development.

China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy.

Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously.

The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance.

The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.

The knowledge of goals of the successor, who is preparing to take over the business, is extremely important for the succession process and further operation of a family enterprise. The aim of this study is to structure the goals of Polish family enterprises’ successors and to develop a Synthetic Model of the goals of Polish family enterprises' successors with the application of grey clustering evaluation models.

Research into the specifics of the diagnosis and assessment of the goals set for the successors of the first succession in family businesses in Poland was carried out in the third quarter of 2016 at two stages using two research methods: in-depth group interview and individual interview. The main aim of the first stage was the extraction of subjectively identified goals by family enterprises' successors (based on their succession experience). The statements were open and obtained during two in-depth group interviews (2 FGI) with successors being in the process of succession at its various stages (total, n = 14). The respondents presented their experiences connected with the succession process along with emotions that are associated with it. In one of the interview stages, the respondents were asked to enumerate their individual goals they set for themselves in the context of upcoming changes. Next, the group agreed on the most frequently mentioned goals by creating their verbal interpretation. The obtained list of 20 goals was recorded and discussed, and thanks to the application of the elimination rule in the collective decision-making process, that list was reduced to 10 goals, which was approved by all participating successors.

The results show the developed Synthetic Model of the goals of family enterprises’ successors. The study singled out four groups of successors: (1) successors who do not work in the family enterprise yet, (2) successors holding lower-level positions, (3) successors holding managerial positions, (4) successors who manage the entire company. As a result of the calculations, the developed Synthetic Model of the goals of family enterprises' successors was positively verified for successors working in higher-level positions and successors managing the entire family enterprise.

In order to use the results of clustering, e.g. for conducting studies on large samples with the use of statistical tools, a reduced number of goals should be taken into account. A thorough study of three goals may bring results similar to the study of the original ten successors of Polish family enterprises in the process of succession. The aim of future research is to develop a mathematical model using optimization functions that enable selection of elements representing individual clusters in such a way that it leads to the extraction of the elements with the highest value in relation to the accepted criterion for assessing their value.

In the future, conducting family business research in accordance with the developed methodology requires a look at the proposed list of successor goals obtained during the Focus Group Interview (FGI) as it could be shortened using the Cluster of Grey Incidence method. Shortening the list of goals has its analytic and practical justifications. The study of the full list of goals in subsequent (and numerous further studies) could lead to errors related to, for example, different interpretation of goals among the investigated successors. Furthermore, the full list of goals would increase costs and extend research time.

Risk management is one of the most influential parts of project management that has a major impact on the success or failure of projects. Due to the increasing use of information technology in all fields and the high failure rate of software development projects, it is essential to predict the risk level of each project effectively before starting. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is proposing an expert system to infer about the risk of new banking software development project.

In this research, the risk of software developing projects is considered from four dimensions including risk of cost deviation, time deviation, quality deviation and scope deviation, which is examined by rough set theory (RST). The most important variables affecting the cost, time, quality and scope of projects are identified as condition attributes and four initial decision systems are constructed. Grey system theory is used to cluster the condition attributes and after data discretizing, eight rule models for each dimension of risk as a decision attribute are extracted using RST. The most validated model for each decision attribute is selected as an inference engine of the expert system, and finally a simple user interface is designed in order to predict the risk level of any new project by inserting the data of project attributes

In this paper, a high accuracy expert system is designed based on the combination of the grey clustering method and rough set modeling to predict the risks of each project before starting. Cross-validation of different rule models shows that the best model for determining cost deviation is Manual/Jonson/ORR model, and the most validated models for predicting the risk of time, quality and scope of projects are Entropy/Genetic/ORR, Manual/Genetic/FOR and Entropy/Genetic/ORR models; all of which are more than 90% accurate

It is essential to gather data of previous cases to design a validated expert system. Since data documentation in the field of software development projects is not complete enough, grey set theory (GST) and RST are combined to improve the validity of the rule model. The proposed expert system can be used for risk assessment of new banking software projects

The risk assessment of software developing projects based on RST is a new approach in the field of risk management. Furthermore, using the grey clustering for combining the condition attributes is a novel solution for improving the accuracy of the rule models.

This paper aims to develop a novel grey Bernoulli model with memory characteristics, which is designed to dynamically choose the optimal memory kernel function and the length of memory dependence period, ultimately enhancing the model's predictive accuracy.

This paper enhances the traditional grey Bernoulli model by introducing memory-dependent derivatives, resulting in a novel memory-dependent derivative grey model. Additionally, fractional-order accumulation is employed for preprocessing the original data. The length of the memory dependence period for memory-dependent derivatives is determined through grey correlation analysis. Furthermore, the whale optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize the cumulative order, power index and memory kernel function index of the model, enabling adaptability to diverse scenarios.

The selection of appropriate memory kernel functions and memory dependency lengths will improve model prediction performance. The model can adaptively select the memory kernel function and memory dependence length, and the performance of the model is better than other comparison models.

The model presented in this article has some limitations. The grey model is itself suitable for small sample data, and memory-dependent derivatives mainly consider the memory effect on a fixed length. Therefore, this model is mainly applicable to data prediction with short-term memory effect and has certain limitations on time series of long-term memory.

In practical systems, memory effects typically exhibit a decaying pattern, which is effectively characterized by the memory kernel function. The model in this study skillfully determines the appropriate kernel functions and memory dependency lengths to capture these memory effects, enhancing its alignment with real-world scenarios.

Based on the memory-dependent derivative method, a memory-dependent derivative grey Bernoulli model that more accurately reflects the actual memory effect is constructed and applied to power generation forecasting in China, South Korea and India.