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Article
Publication date: 17 April 2024

Jahanzaib Alvi and Imtiaz Arif

The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.

Abstract

Purpose

The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.

Design/methodology/approach

Annual data of non-financial listed companies were taken from 2000 to 2020, along with 71 financial ratios. The dataset was bifurcated into three panels with three default assumptions. Logistic regression (LR) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) binary classification algorithms were used to estimate credit default in this research.

Findings

The study’s findings revealed that features used in Model 3 (Case 3) were the efficient and best features comparatively. Results also showcased that KNN exposed higher accuracy than LR, which proves the supremacy of KNN on LR.

Research limitations/implications

Using only two classifiers limits this research for a comprehensive comparison of results; this research was based on only financial data, which exhibits a sizeable room for including non-financial parameters in default estimation. Both limitations may be a direction for future research in this domain.

Originality/value

This study introduces efficient features and tools for credit default prediction using financial data, demonstrating KNN’s superior accuracy over LR and suggesting future research directions.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Sakshi Khurana and Meena Sharma

This study aims to examine the impact of intellectual capital (IC) on default risk in Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of intellectual capital (IC) on default risk in Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies panel data regression analysis to derive a relationship between IC and default risk for the sample period 2013–2022. The value-added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) of Pulic (2000) has been applied to measure IC performance, and default risk is estimated using the revised Z-score model of Altman (2000).

Findings

The results revealed a positive association between Z-score and VAIC. It implies that a higher value of VAIC improves financial stability and leads to a lower likelihood of default. The findings further suggest that new default forecasting models can be experimented with IC indicators for better default prediction.

Practical implications

The findings can have implications for investors and banks. This paper provides evidence of IC performance in improving the financial solvency of firms. Investors and financial institutions should invest their resources in a healthy firm that effectively manages and invests in their IC. It will eventually award investors and creditors high returns through efficient value-creation processes.

Originality/value

This study provides evidence of IC performance in improving the financial solvency of Indian high-defaulting firms, which lacks sufficient evidence in this domain of research. Numerous studies exist examining the relationship between firm performance and IC value, but this area is inadequately focused and underresearched. This study, therefore, fills the research gap from an Indian perspective.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 January 2022

Muhammad Mushafiq, Syed Ahmad Sami, Muhammad Khalid Sohail and Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial performance with the moderation effect of the firm size.

Findings

This study establishes the findings that default risk significantly impacts the financial performance. The relationship between distance-to-default (DD) and financial performance is positive, which means the relationship of the independent and dependent variable is inverse. Moreover, this study finds that the firm size is a significant positive moderator between DD and financial performance.

Practical implications

This study provides new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between default risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors and businesses related to nonfinancial firms in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) with significant default risk's impact on performance. This study finds, on average, the default probability in KSE ALL indexed companies is 6.12%.

Originality/value

The evidence of the default risk and financial performance on samples of nonfinancial firms has been minimal; mainly, it has been limited to the banking sector. Moreover, the existing studies have only catered the direct effect of only. This study fills that gap and evaluates this relationship in nonfinancial firms. This study also helps in the evaluation of Merton model's performance in the nonfinancial firms.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 40 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 October 2023

Ivan Soukal, Jan Mačí, Gabriela Trnková, Libuse Svobodova, Martina Hedvičáková, Eva Hamplova, Petra Maresova and Frank Lefley

The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest…

1022

Abstract

Purpose

The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest and easiest way to get a picture of the otherwise pervasive field of bankruptcy prediction models. The authors aim to present state-of-the-art bankruptcy prediction models assembled by the field's core authors and critically examine the approaches and methods adopted.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors conducted a literature search in November 2022 through scientific databases Scopus, ScienceDirect and the Web of Science, focussing on a publication period from 2010 to 2022. The database search query was formulated as “Bankruptcy Prediction” and “Model or Tool”. However, the authors intentionally did not specify any model or tool to make the search non-discriminatory. The authors reviewed over 7,300 articles.

Findings

This paper has addressed the research questions: (1) What are the most important publications of the core authors in terms of the target country, size of the sample, sector of the economy and specialization in SME? (2) What are the most used methods for deriving or adjusting models appearing in the articles of the core authors? (3) To what extent do the core authors include accounting-based variables, non-financial or macroeconomic indicators, in their prediction models? Despite the advantages of new-age methods, based on the information in the articles analyzed, it can be deduced that conventional methods will continue to be beneficial, mainly due to the higher degree of ease of use and the transferability of the derived model.

Research limitations/implications

The authors identify several gaps in the literature which this research does not address but could be the focus of future research.

Practical implications

The authors provide practitioners and academics with an extract from a wide range of studies, available in scientific databases, on bankruptcy prediction models or tools, resulting in a large number of records being reviewed. This research will interest shareholders, corporations, and financial institutions interested in models of financial distress prediction or bankruptcy prediction to help identify troubled firms in the early stages of distress.

Social implications

Bankruptcy is a major concern for society in general, especially in today's economic environment. Therefore, being able to predict possible business failure at an early stage will give an organization time to address the issue and maybe avoid bankruptcy.

Originality/value

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the core authors in the bankruptcy prediction model and methods field. The primary value of the study is the current overview and analysis of the theoretical and practical development of knowledge in this field in the form of the construction of new models using classical or new-age methods. Also, the paper adds value by critically examining existing models and their modifications, including a discussion of the benefits of non-accounting variables usage.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 September 2024

Ghassem Blue, Masoumeh Chahrdahcheriki, Zabihollah Rezaee and Mohsen Khotanlou

This study aims to present a model for detecting and predicting creative accounting in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to present a model for detecting and predicting creative accounting in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors conduct this research in three stages. First, the authors review the literature to determine the dimensions, components, indicators and techniques of creative accounting. Second, the authors conduct semi-structured interviews with experts using the fuzzy Delphi technique to obtain screening and reach a consensus. Finally, the authors develop a model to predict creative accounting by classifying the financial statements of the sample companies into two groups based on the use or non-use of creative accounting techniques, measuring the indicators determined in the previous stage, running various machine learning algorithms and choosing the superior algorithm.

Findings

The results indicate the usefulness of accounting information for detecting and predicting creative accounting and the relevance of several financial attributes as important predictors. The results also indicate the superiority of extremely randomized trees over other algorithms in predicting creative accounting and suggest that the primary purpose of creative accounting in Iran is earnings management. Contrary to the political cost hypothesis, large Iranian companies use creative accounting to inflate profits.

Research limitations/implications

The present research also has several limitations that must be considered, and caution must be exercised in interpreting and generalizing the findings as specified in the revised manuscript.

Practical implications

This study’s implications are significant for policymakers, standard-setters and practitioners. By recognizing the detrimental effects of creative accounting on financial transparency within companies, policymakers can address existing gaps in accounting standards to minimize the potential for earnings manipulation. Consequently, strengthening internal and external mechanisms related to a firm’s financial performance becomes achievable. The study provides evidence of the need for audit firms to recognize the importance of creative accounting and consider creative accounting in their audit plans to prevent insufficient or even misleading disclosure by companies that extensively use creative accounting practices in their financial reporting. Moreover, knowledge of creative accounting techniques can help auditors assess audit and detection risks and serve as a valuable guide for reducing audit costs and improving audit quality.

Social implications

Given that creative accounting practices distort the true or real accounting results, curbing creative accounting practices reduces corporate failures and could lead to the reduction of job losses and other social consequences.

Originality/value

This study uses a unique database in Iran to determine a model for predicting creative accounting using a mixed-method methodology, qualitative and quantitative, to identify creative accounting techniques and run various machine learning algorithms.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2024

Nisha, Neha Puri, Namita Rajput and Harjit Singh

The purpose of this study is to analyse and compile the literature on various option pricing models (OPM) or methodologies. The report highlights the gaps in the existing…

70

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse and compile the literature on various option pricing models (OPM) or methodologies. The report highlights the gaps in the existing literature review and builds recommendations for potential scholars interested in the subject area.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the researchers used a systematic literature review procedure to collect data from Scopus. Bibliometric and structured network analyses were used to examine the bibliometric properties of 864 research documents.

Findings

As per the findings of the study, publication in the field has been increasing at a rate of 6% on average. This study also includes a list of the most influential and productive researchers, frequently used keywords and primary publications in this subject area. In particular, Thematic map and Sankey’s diagram for conceptual structure and for intellectual structure co-citation analysis and bibliographic coupling were used.

Research limitations/implications

Based on the conclusion presented in this paper, there are several potential implications for research, practice and society.

Practical implications

This study provides useful insights for future research in the area of OPM in financial derivatives. Researchers can focus on impactful authors, significant work and productive countries and identify potential collaborators. The study also highlights the commonly used OPMs and emerging themes like machine learning and deep neural network models, which can inform practitioners about new developments in the field and guide the development of new models to address existing limitations.

Social implications

The accurate pricing of financial derivatives has significant implications for society, as it can impact the stability of financial markets and the wider economy. The findings of this study, which identify the most commonly used OPMs and emerging themes, can help improve the accuracy of pricing and risk management in the financial derivatives sector, which can ultimately benefit society as a whole.

Originality/value

It is possibly the initial effort to consolidate the literature on calibration on option price by evaluating and analysing alternative OPM applied by researchers to guide future research in the right direction.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2023

Abdulnaser Ibrahim Nour, Mohammad Najjar, Saed Al Koni, Abullateef Abudiak, Mahmoud Ibrahim Noor and Rani Shahwan

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of governance mechanisms on corporate failure.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of governance mechanisms on corporate failure.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a hypothesis-testing research design to collect data from the annual reports of 35 companies listed on Palestine Exchange from 2010 to 2019. Descriptive and inferential statistics were employed, along with correlation analysis to evaluate linear relationships between variables. The variance inflation factor was used to test multicollinearity, and binary logistic regression was utilized to develop the research model.

Findings

There is a significant positive relationship between board of directors' independency, institutional ownership and the quality of external audit, and corporate failure reduction. No significant relationship has been found among corporate governance variables such as board size, board meetings' frequency, board members' remuneration and audit committee existence, and corporate failure reduction.

Research limitations/implications

Several empirical research studies have developed models to predict corporate failure using accounting and financial data. However, limited research has empirically investigated the impact of the different mechanisms of governance on corporate failure prediction.

Practical implications

The research highlighted the significance of companies' commitment to governance principles and their impact on predicting failure. The study suggests that decision-makers and managers can adopt different governance mechanisms to support corporate success and avoid those that may lead to negative consequences and failure.

Originality/value

This research is the first in Palestine to use a comprehensive list of corporate governance mechanisms to predict the failure of companies listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange between 2010 and 2019.

Details

Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-1168

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 December 2023

David Veganzones and Eric Severin

This study investigates the connection between corporate governance and zombie firm’s exit time.

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the connection between corporate governance and zombie firm’s exit time.

Design/methodology/approach

With a sample of 2,794 French zombie firms, the analysis focuses on four aspects of corporate governance: board size (BS), managerial ownership (MO), director turnover (DT) and ownership concentration, using tobit regression.

Findings

Dimensions of corporate governance have an important role in determining zombie firms’ exit time. MO and ownership concentration increase zombie firm exit time, whereas larger BSs and DT reduce it.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to include corporate governance as a characteristic relevant to zombie firms’ exit time. It provides new insights on why some zombie firms remain in the market longer than expected.

Details

European Business Review, vol. 36 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-534X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Kesu Singh

Introduction: According to the existing research, one of the key determinants of a company’s survival and market development is its ability to get bank loans or other external…

Abstract

Introduction: According to the existing research, one of the key determinants of a company’s survival and market development is its ability to get bank loans or other external sources of finance for business expansion.

Purpose: The study aims to explore the factors affecting access to finance and their effects on the development of medium- and small-sized businesses. These factors include business size and age, profitability, the length of a company’s association with a commercial bank, and banking sector characteristics.

Need for the study: It is particularly crucial for small- and medium-sized businesses since they often have trouble getting funding from banks because they don’t supply the banks with the information they need to assess their loan application prospects, however, when a company’s economic and financial situation improves, banks get access to more information about the firms, and financing is thus more readily available.

Methodology: This research is based on qualitative methods, focus on an elaborative study of the existing literature, and provide suggestions based on the same.

Findings: The findings show that small- and medium-sized businesses, like those in other European nations, have less access to finance than large businesses. It revealed that the company’s size, liquidity, profitability, and banking industry state significantly influence the availability of bank loans.

Details

The Framework for Resilient Industry: A Holistic Approach for Developing Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-735-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2024

Ryley McConkey, Nikhila Kalia, Eugene Yee and Fue-Sang Lien

Industrial simulations of turbulent flows often rely on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models, which contain numerous closure coefficients that need to be…

Abstract

Purpose

Industrial simulations of turbulent flows often rely on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models, which contain numerous closure coefficients that need to be calibrated. This paper aims to address this issue by proposing a semi-automated calibration of these coefficients using a new framework (referred to as turbo-RANS) based on Bayesian optimization.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors introduce the generalized error and default coefficient preference (GEDCP) objective function, which can be used with integral, sparse or dense reference data for the purpose of calibrating RANS turbulence closure model coefficients. Then, the authors describe a Bayesian optimization-based algorithm for conducting the calibration of these model coefficients. An in-depth hyperparameter tuning study is conducted to recommend efficient settings for the turbo-RANS optimization procedure.

Findings

The authors demonstrate that the performance of the k-ω shear stress transport (SST) and generalized k-ω (GEKO) turbulence models can be efficiently improved via turbo-RANS, for three example cases: predicting the lift coefficient of an airfoil; predicting the velocity and turbulent kinetic energy fields for a separated flow; and, predicting the wall pressure coefficient distribution for flow through a converging-diverging channel.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this work is the first to propose and provide an open-source black-box calibration procedure for turbulence model coefficients based on Bayesian optimization. The authors propose a data-flexible objective function for the calibration target. The open-source implementation of the turbo-RANS framework includes OpenFOAM, Ansys Fluent, STAR-CCM+ and solver-agnostic templates for user application.

Details

International Journal of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow, vol. 34 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0961-5539

Keywords

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