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Liquidity risk, i.e., the likelihood that a swap can be “sold” (i.e., assigned) may affect swap prices. This article addresses the importance of liquidity risk as a factor in the valuation of swaps, which are subject to default risk. The author presents a model for pricing these swaps by incorporating a proxy for liquidity risk. Using the model, the author finds that the effects of liquidity risk may partially offset the effects of default risk.

Prior research provides evidence that firms make accounting choices to avoid violation of debt covenant provisions and the resulting costs of technical default. We extend this research by asking why some firms refrain from making accounting policy changes when faced with costs of technical default. We considered two possible explanations. First, we hypothesise that these defaulting firms may lack the flexibility to make accounting changes. Second, we hypothesise that these defaulting firms may lack incentive to change accounting methods. Results confirm prior research and indicate that defaulting firms make more accounting changes than non‐defaulting firms. The decision by defaulting firms to change or not change accounting methods during the three years ending in the year of a technical default of debt covenants can be explained in part by the ability of the firm and by the incentives of the firm to make a change.

The authors study the effect of an exogenous shock in the form of Coronavirus lockdowns on individual default and on default contagion within the microfinance (MF) sector in India. The authors rely on proprietary data obtained from an MF institution for the period from Nov 2019 to Dec 2020. The authors show that default increased to 95.29% in the month of April 2020, when Covid lockdowns were fully in place. However, borrowers bounced back thereafter, either making full or partial payments, so that defaults had fallen to 5.92% by December 2020. Static features of the group lending model like peer monitoring and joint liability help explain 90% of the monthly deficit during Covid lockdowns among uneducated borrowers. Dynamic features such as contingent renewal help explain why defaults were cured quickly through timely repayments. Finally, there is an absence of default contagion at the district level. Indeed, lagged own default explains 96.6% of variation in individual default, rather than contagion through group, village or district-level defaults. The authors conclude that the MF sector is resilient to exogenous shocks like the pandemic.

The authors use time series panel regressions, as well as cross-sectional regressions.

The authors find that borrower defaults increased significantly to 95.29% during the month of April 2020, when Covid lockdowns were fully in place. However, borrowers bounced back almost immediately, either making full or partial payments, such that defaults had fallen to 5.92% by December 2020. The group lending model does remarkably well in explaining defaults even during Covid lockdowns. Among the majority (92%) of borrowers who are residents of rural districts, the group lending model appears to blunt the impact of the exogenous shock on rates of default. Indeed, panel regressions demonstrate that the group lending model helps explain 90% of the monthly deficit among uneducated borrowers. Logistic regressions indicate that the group lending model is less persuasive among relatively affluent borrowers residing in semi-urban or urban areas who have some formal schooling. Contingent renewal is shown to be an effective disciplining mechanism when a group does default due to the Covid lockdowns. The authors find that groups who defaulted in April 2020 but repaid the outstanding balance within the next two months were more likely to receive subsequent loans from the lender. On the other hand, groups who defaulted in April 2020 and did not repay the outstanding balance until December 2020 did not receive follow-on financing. Finally, the authors find that lagged individual default is the primary source of individual default, rather than contagion through group, village or district-level defaults.

The limitation of the study is that it is confined to a single MF institution in India.

The authors conclude that the social capital that is the foundation of the group lending model succeeds in limiting both the risk and contagion of default from an exogenous shock, such as the Covid pandemic.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are the first to examine defaults in the Indian MF sector during the Covid lockdowns in April 2020.

This study aims to analyze three major defaults on Sukuk since 2007. These case studies make clear that, in most cases, the problems can be traced back to clauses and structures that made the Sukuk more like conventional bonds. The case studies highlighted the importance of the legal institutions of the country where ownership rights are likely to be contested. Strict adherence to Shariah (Islamic Jurisprudence) principles would have considerably simplified restructuring because Shariah compliance implies a clear allocation of property rights: in Sukuk, investors will receive full title to the underlying Sukuk assets in distress situations.

The study follows a qualitative research method base on detailed case studies of the Sukuk defaults occurred in the aftermath of financial crises 2007. The focus in this paper is on the resolution process following default, not on the reasons why the default was triggered to begin with. The authors analyze the Sukuk defaults from an Islamic finance perspective. Specifically, after providing basic information on each Sukuk (issuer, arranger, SPV, term period, rate of return, etc.), the authors present an exposition of the underlying contracts of each Sukuk, their structure, reasons for defaults and restructuring process thereafter. Finally, the authors provide a discussion on the critical issues related to Sukuk structures, namely, ownership of underlying Sukuk assets, rights of the investors including recourse, if any, to core assets in case of distress, risk factors including legal and Shariah risks regarding Sukuk structures, purchase undertakings and credit enhancements.

The case studies highlighted the importance of the legal institutions of the country where ownership rights are likely to be contested. Interestingly enough, strict adherence to Shariah (Islamic Jurisprudence) principles would have considerably simplified restructuring because Shariah compliance implies a clear allocation of property rights: in Sukuk, investors will receive full title to the underlying Sukuk assets in distress situations. So, the answer to the question the authors asked, is Islamic Finance failing to deliver on its promises, is a qualified no.

The paper provides in depth analysis of the Sukuk defaults and provide the main reasons for that along with recommendations that compliance to Shariah principles of ownership and risk sharing would reduce incidence of defaults and facilitates restructuring.

The ownership structure in Japanese firms has experienced a significant change recently, fueled primarily by regulatory changes. This has important repercussions on corporate performance and risk. This paper examines the impact of insider ownership on the default risk of Japanese firms.

We collected data from the Nikkei Corporate Governance Evaluation System (CGES) database for the period 2004–2019. Our final dataset yields 36,116 firm-year observations. We apply a firm fixed effect model for baseline regression. Endogeneity was checked by applying propensity score matching (PSM) and two-stage least squares (2SLS) techniques. Furthermore, the robustness of baseline regression results was checked using alternative estimation techniques.

Results show a significant positive influence of insider ownership on default risk. Furthermore, ROA volatility and stock price volatility appear to be the major channels through which insider ownership affects a firm’s default risk. We further document that external monitoring mechanisms, including traditional main bank ties, institutional ownership and analyst coverage, are the key risk-mitigating factors.

Our research deals with Japanese firms only. Future research may attempt to analyze the cases of emerging economies. Furthermore, future research might examine the ownership-default risk relationship for financial institutions to see if this relationship differs between financial and nonfinancial firms.

Insider ownership enhances the probability of default. Hence, policymakers may consider instituting a ceiling for insider ownership in Japanese firms. Moreover, we highlight various risk-mediating channels that would help policymakers adopt guidelines for mitigating corporate risk.

Our study is the first to investigate the effect of insider ownership on default risk in Japanese settings. Prior studies identified various determinants that affect firms’ default risk. Our study contributes to this stream of literature by examining the impact of insider ownership on default risk and extending the limited literature related to insider ownership.

Borrowers’ intentional non-payment of bank loans despite being able to pay is a financial crime. This paper explores how willful loan defaulting became a societal practice in Bangladesh, where non-performing loans (NPLs) are assumed to surpass BDT 4 trillion mainly due to habitual defaults of large borrowers.

This study reviewed publicly available documents and interviewed bank managers, loan takers, regulators and industry experts. It drew on Pierre Bourdieu’s practice theory, specifically the concepts- habitus, capital and field, to explain the permeation of “intentional defaulting culture” in the banking industry.

Willful defaulting in Bangladesh is an outcome of a harmonious blend of defaulters’ mindsets and possession of capital supported by the structure and rules of the field. The socio-political context facilitates, rather than impedes, the “unwillingness to pay” motive of the habitual defaulters due to their possession of different forms of capital.

Understanding of how the crime of willful defaulting emerges and persists in society may have policy and practice implications in economies suffering NPL problems.

This study explicates how individual intents and institutional structures jointly amplify financial crimes in society.

The study investigates the impact of the interaction effect of product market competition and rollover risk on the default risk of the firms.

The study used the sample of unbalanced panel data from Indian corporates without any survivability bias over the period from 2009 to 2020 consisting of 30,396 firm-year observations of 6,718 firms spread across 143 industry groups. The panel data regression tests the interaction effect in the context of the asset substitution problem, predation threat theory, competitive shock, and competitive risk.

The empirical results highlighted the dominance of the predatory effect of competition over the disciplinary advantage of short-term debts. The competitive shock to the industry results in a higher credit spread for refinancing short-term debt and significantly increases rollover risk for firms. Smaller firms have higher default risk from rollover losses than larger firms in the face of competition due to asset-substitution problems and strong rivalry. For firms with weaker fundamentals, the interaction effect of rollover risk and competition exacerbates the flight-to-quality problem, resulting in a systemic event.

The investors can benefit by factoring ex-ante the interdependence of competition, debt market illiquidity, and default premia while calculating the credit risk. The shareholders of competitive firms can reduce the moral hazard of refinancing the rollover losses and defaulting at a higher fundamental default threshold, by reducing sub-optimal utilization of funds by managers and agency costs.

As per the best of author knowledge, the present study is the first to study the moderating effect of product market competition in exacerbating default risk through the rollover channel.

The chapter studies strategic default using an experimental approach.

The experiment considers a stochastic asset process and a loan with no down-payment. The treatments are two asset volatilities (high and low) and the absence and presence of social interactions via a direct effect on the subject's payoff.

I demonstrate that (i) people appear to follow the prediction of the strategic default model quite closely in the high asset volatility treatment, and that (ii) incorporating social interactions delays the strategic default beyond what is considered optimal.

The study tests adequately the strategic default using a novel experimental design and analyzes the neighbor's effect on that decision.

We set out, in this paper, to extend the Das and Sundaram (2000) model as a means of simultaneously considering correlated default risk structure and counter-party risk. The multinomial model established by Kamrad and Ritchken (1991) is subsequently modified in order to facilitate the development of a computational algorithm for valuing two types of active credit derivatives, credit-spread options and default baskets. From our numerical examples, we find that along with the correlated default risk, the existence of counter-party risk results in a substantially lower valuation of credit derivatives. In addition, we find that different settings of the term structure of interest rate volatility also have a significant impact on the value of credit derivatives.

Portfolio credit derivatives, such as basket credit default swaps (basket CDS), require for their pricing an estimation of the dependence structure of defaults, which is known to exhibit tail dependence as reflected in observed default contagion. A popular model with this property is the (Student's) t-copula; unfortunately there is no fast method to calibrate the degree of freedom parameter.

In this paper, within the framework of Schönbucher's copula-based trigger-variable model for basket CDS pricing, we propose instead to calibrate the full multivariate t distribution. We describe a version of the expectation-maximization algorithm that provides very fast calibration speeds compared to the current copula-based alternatives.

The algorithm generalizes easily to the more flexible skewed t distributions. To our knowledge, we are the first to use the skewed t distribution in this context.