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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2003

David Cranage

One of the most basic pieces of information useful to hospitality operations is gross sales, and the ability to forecast them is strategically important. These forecasts could…

3681

Abstract

One of the most basic pieces of information useful to hospitality operations is gross sales, and the ability to forecast them is strategically important. These forecasts could provide powerful information to cut costs, increase efficient use of resources, and improve the ability to compete in a constantly changing environment. This study tests sophisticated, yet simple‐to‐use time series models to forecast sales. The results show that, with slight re‐arrangement of historical sales data, easy‐to‐use time series models can accurately forecast gross sales.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 April 2003

Celia Frank, Ashish Garg, Les Sztandera and Amar Raheja

Traditionally, statistical time series methods like moving average (MA), auto‐regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since these models predict…

2878

Abstract

Traditionally, statistical time series methods like moving average (MA), auto‐regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since these models predict future sales only on the basis of previous sales, they fail in an environment where the sales are more influenced by exogenous variables such as size, price, color, climatic data, effect of media, price changes or campaigns. Although, a linear regression model can take these variables into account its approximation function is restricted to be linear. Soft computing methods such as fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and genetic algorithms offer an alternative taking into account both endogenous and exogenous variables and allowing arbitrary non‐linear approximation functions derived (learned) directly from the data. In this paper, two approaches have been investigated for forecasting women's apparel sales, statistical time series modeling, and modeling using ANNs. Four years' sales data (1997‐2000) were used as backcast data in the model and a forecast was made for 2 months of the year 2000. The performance of the models was tested by comparing one of the goodness‐of‐fit statistics, R2, and also by comparing actual sales with the forecasted sales of different types of garments. On an average, an R2 of 0.75 and 0.90 was found for single seasonal exponential smoothing and Winters' three parameter model, respectively. The model based on ANN gave a higher R2 averaging 0.92. Although, R2 for ANN model was higher than that of statistical models, correlations between actual and forecasted were lower than those found with Winters' three parameter model.

Details

International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-6222

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 November 2017

Robert Kozielski, Michał Dziekoński, Michał Medowski, Jacek Pogorzelski and Marcin Ostachowski

Companies spend millions on training their sales representatives. Thousands of textbooks have been published; thousands of training videos have been recorded. Hundreds of good…

Abstract

Companies spend millions on training their sales representatives. Thousands of textbooks have been published; thousands of training videos have been recorded. Hundreds of good pieces of advice and tips for sales representatives have been presented along with hundreds of sales methods and techniques. Probably the largest number of indicators and measures are applied in sales and distribution. On the one hand, this is a result of the fact that sales provide revenue and profit to a company; on the other hand, the concept of management by objectives turns out to be most effective in regional sales teams with reference to sales representatives and methods of performance evaluation. As a result, a whole array of indices has been created which enable the evaluation of sales representatives’ work and make it possible to manage goods distribution in a better way.

The indices presented in this chapter are rooted in the consumer market and are applied most often to this type of market (particularly in relation to fast-moving consumer goods at the level of retail trade). Nevertheless, many of them can be used on other markets (services, means of production) and at other trade levels (wholesale).

Although the values of many indices presented herein are usually calculated by market research agencies and delivered to companies in the form of synthetic results, we have placed the emphasis on the ability to determine them independently, both in descriptive and exemplifying terms. We consider it important to understand the genesis of indices and build the ability to interpret them on that basis. What is significant is that the indices can be interpreted differently; the same index may provide a different assessment of a product’s, brand or company’s position in the market depending on the parameters taken into account. Therefore, we strive to show a certain way of thinking rather than give ready-made recipes and cite ‘proven’ principles. Sales and distribution are dynamic phenomena, and limiting them within the framework of ‘one proper’ interpretation would be an intellectual abuse.

Article
Publication date: 19 May 2021

Song Wang and Yang Yang

The rapid development of e-commerce has brought not only great convenience to people but a great challenge to online stores. Phenomenon such as out of stock and slow sales has…

Abstract

Purpose

The rapid development of e-commerce has brought not only great convenience to people but a great challenge to online stores. Phenomenon such as out of stock and slow sales has been common in recent years. These issues can be managed only when the occurrence of the sales volume is predicted in advance, and sufficient warnings can be executed in time. Thus, keeping in mind the importance of the sales prediction system, the purpose of this paper is to propose an effective sales prediction model and make digital marketing strategies with the machine learning model.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the consumer purchasing behavior decision theory, we discuss the factors affecting product sales, including external factors, consumer perception, consumer potential purchase behavior and consumer traffic. Then we propose a sales prediction model, M-GNA-XGBOOST, using the time-series prediction that ensures the effective prediction of sales about each product in a short time on online stores based on the sales data in the previous term or month or year. The proposed M-GNA-XGBOOST model serves as an adaptive prediction model, for which the instant factors and the sales data of the previous period are the input, and the optimal computation is based on the proposed methodology. The adaptive prediction using the proposed model is developed based on the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GAN (Generative Adversarial Networks) and XGBOOST (eXtreme Gradient Boosting). The model inherits the advantages among the algorithms with better accuracy and forecasts the sales of each product in the store with instant data characteristics for the first time.

Findings

The analysis using Jingdong dataset proves the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is enhanced and the accuracy that instant data as input is found to be better compared with the model that lagged data as input. The root means squared error and mean absolute error of the proposed model are found to be around 11.9 and 8.23. According to the sales prediction of each product, the resource can be arranged in advance, and the marketing strategy of product positioning, product display optimization, inventory management and product promotion is designed for online stores.

Originality/value

The paper proposes and implements a new model, M-GNA-XGBOOST, to predict sales of each product for online stores. Our work provides reference and enlightenment for the establishment of accurate sales-based digital marketing strategies for online stores.

Details

Data Technologies and Applications, vol. 55 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9288

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 July 1978

Nigel Piercy

Introduction This paper attempts to define and illustrate an approach to marketing analysis which reflects the needs, capabilities and resources of decision makers in…

Abstract

Introduction This paper attempts to define and illustrate an approach to marketing analysis which reflects the needs, capabilities and resources of decision makers in organisations where no sophisticated, explicit marketing information systems exist, and where no advanced marketing research or model‐building is feasible. Typically, this is likely to include small and medium sized manufacturers operating in national and export marketing, rather than the large public corporations and multi‐national marketing companies. This is described as an alternative technology, an analogy drawn from popular usage, where the “technology” and sophistication of marketing research methods used, and the complexity of results produced, should be matched not only with the decision maker's needs for information, but also his resources and ability to handle information. The argument put forward is that we can distinguish between companies in terms of their economic development, in a similar way to the more familiar distinctions made between countries, and that this differentiation has important implications for the “technology” of marketing management information which is most appropriate. This viewpoint is justified in the first part of the paper, in terms of its relationship with marketing theory and management practice. Once the rationale of the alternative technology approach has been established, we can continue by looking at some of the practical applications of the concept. The approach is illustrated firstly, by looking at the use of basic sales data and some of the possibilities for creative analysis to isolate trends and to understand changes in the components making up total sales performance. Secondly, the alternative technology concept is illustrated by examining some of the qualitative and semi‐qualitative methods available for development to provide data on markets and their structure and trends, and the potential for co‐operative research in some markets. It is stressed throughout that these approaches can offer the decision maker useful data, but that it is important to validate these data before they are used. While this paper examines some of the main issues briefly, it is hoped that it will be seen as part of moves to give more rigorous attention to the marketing analysis and research needs of the less sophisticated firm and its marketing information system, which may be quite different in the real world to the needs of the larger organisation.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 16 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Article
Publication date: 4 April 2016

Alain Yee Loong Chong, Boying Li, Eric W.T. Ngai, Eugene Ch'ng and Filbert Lee

The purpose of this paper is to investigate if online reviews (e.g. valence and volume), online promotional strategies (e.g. free delivery and discounts) and sentiments from user…

10027

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate if online reviews (e.g. valence and volume), online promotional strategies (e.g. free delivery and discounts) and sentiments from user reviews can help predict product sales.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors designed a big data architecture and deployed Node.js agents for scraping the Amazon.com pages using asynchronous input/output calls. The completed web crawling and scraping data sets were then preprocessed for sentimental and neural network analysis. The neural network was employed to examine which variables in the study are important predictors of product sales.

Findings

This study found that although online reviews, online promotional strategies and online sentiments can all predict product sales, some variables are more important predictors than others. The authors found that the interplay effects of these variables become more important variables than the individual variables themselves. For example, online volume interactions with sentiments and discounts are more important than the individual predictors of discounts, sentiments or online volume.

Originality/value

This study designed big data architecture, in combination with sentimental and neural network analysis that can facilitate future business research for predicting product sales in an online environment. This study also employed a predictive analytic approach (e.g. neural network) to examine the variables, and this approach is useful for future data analysis in a big data environment where prediction can have more practical implications than significance testing. This study also examined the interplay between online reviews, sentiments and promotional strategies, which up to now have mostly been examined individually in previous studies.

Details

International Journal of Operations & Production Management, vol. 36 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 October 2020

Pearlean Chadha and Jenny Berrill

This paper aims to contribute to the regionalisation–globalisation debate in international business (IB) by providing a longitudinal analysis of firm-level multinationality. The…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to contribute to the regionalisation–globalisation debate in international business (IB) by providing a longitudinal analysis of firm-level multinationality. The analysis uses a unique hand-collected data set of both accounting (sales) and non-accounting (subsidiaries) data. The percentage of foreign sales is also used as an additional measure of multinationality.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper categorises constituent firms of the Financial Times Stock Exchange 350 index over an 18-year time period from 1998 to 2015. Firms are categorised using the multinationality classification system developed by Aggarwal et al. (2011). The paper also conducts an industrial analysis across ten industries.

Findings

The evidence shows increasing multinationality over time that suggests a “trans-regional” operational strategy rather than a global or regional one. The results also show that UK firms are more multinational based on subsidiaries than sales. This contradicts the traditional stages theory of internationalisation where firms first expand sales, then subsidiaries. While some support for triad regions is found, there is also evidence of firm-level operations expanding beyond the triad regions of North America, Asia and Europe to non-triad regions such as Africa, Oceania and South America. The industrial analysis shows that non-service firms are more multinational than service firms.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to provide an in-depth longitudinal analysis of the geographical dispersion using both sales and subsidiaries data for UK firms. This paper provides a unique perspective on the regionalisation–globalisation debate in IB and presents evidence contrary to traditional stages theories of firm-level internationalisation.

Details

Multinational Business Review, vol. 29 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1525-383X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 1999

George K. Chacko

Gives an in depth view of the strategies pursued by the world’s leading chief executive officers in an attempt to provide guidance to new chief executives of today. Considers the…

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Abstract

Gives an in depth view of the strategies pursued by the world’s leading chief executive officers in an attempt to provide guidance to new chief executives of today. Considers the marketing strategies employed, together with the organizational structures used and looks at the universal concepts that can be applied to any product. Uses anecdotal evidence to formulate a number of theories which can be used to compare your company with the best in the world. Presents initial survival strategies and then looks at ways companies can broaden their boundaries through manipulation and choice. Covers a huge variety of case studies and examples together with a substantial question and answer section.

Details

Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, vol. 11 no. 2/3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-5855

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 1986

Geoffrey Lancaster and Robert Lomas

In order to predict the future we must examine the past in order to observe trends over periods of time and establish the degree of probability with which these trends are likely…

Abstract

In order to predict the future we must examine the past in order to observe trends over periods of time and establish the degree of probability with which these trends are likely to repeat themselves in the future. All forecasts are wrong, and management must be aware of this fact and decide upon the degree of inexactitude that can be tolerated when planning for the future.

Details

International Journal of Physical Distribution & Materials Management, vol. 16 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0269-8218

Book part
Publication date: 13 November 2017

Robert Kozielski, Michał Dziekoński, Jacek Pogorzelski and Grzegorz Urbanek

The term ‘strategy’ is one of the most frequently used terms in business, and its application in marketing is particularly common. Company strategy, market strategy, marketing…

Abstract

The term ‘strategy’ is one of the most frequently used terms in business, and its application in marketing is particularly common. Company strategy, market strategy, marketing strategy, sales strategy, promotion strategy, distribution strategy, low pricing strategy – it would take a long time to list all of them. Although this term is so commonly in use, its definition is not as straightforward and it can be interpreted in different ways. In comparison with tactical decisions, strategy is much more significant for an organisation as it brings long-lasting consequences. It is implemented by higher level managers on a regular basis, and it is based on external, often subjective information, so decisions – especially at the time they are made – are difficult to evaluate.

Taking into consideration the fact that strategy refers to a long-term rather than a short-term period, strategic decisions serve as the basis for undertaking operational activities. However, marketing refers to the market and the competition. It is possible to claim that marketing strategy is trying to find an answer to the question to which path an organisation should follow in order to achieve its goals and objectives. If, for example, a company has a goal to generate a profit of PLN 1 million by selling 100,000 pieces of a product, the market strategy should answer at least the following two questions:

  1. Who will be our target group, for example, who will purchase the 100,000 pieces of the product?

  2. Why is it us from whom a potential buyer should purchase the product?

Who will be our target group, for example, who will purchase the 100,000 pieces of the product?

Why is it us from whom a potential buyer should purchase the product?

The target market will be defined if a reply to the first question is provided. The second question identifies the foundations of competitive advantage. These two issues, that is, target market and competitive advantage are the strategic marketing issues. You cannot change your target group unexpectedly while competitive advantage is the basis for changing decisions regarding prices, promotions and sales.

This chapter describes the measures of marketing activities which refer to strategic aspects and testify a company’s market position – the measures of the performance of target groups and competitive advantage. Readers’ attention should be also focused on the indices that are less popular in Poland and, therefore, may be underestimated. It seems that some of them, for example, the index of marketing resources allocation and the marketing risk index, provide a lot of valuable information and, at the same time, make it possible to show the value of marketing investments. Their wider use in the near future is only a matter of time.

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