Search results

The purpose of this paper is to develop Delphi methodology toward a holistic method for forecasting market change. Delphi methodology experienced its culmination in marketing research during the 1970s–1980s, but still has much to offer to both marketing scholars and practitioners in contexts where future market changes are associated with ambiguity and uncertainty.

This study revives the Delphi methodology by exemplifying how a recently developed framework on market change can be combined with the Delphi technique for data collection to support forecasting activities and research. The authors demonstrate the benefits of the improved methodology in an empirical study on the impact of the fifth generation of wireless communications technologies (5G) on the Finnish media market.

The developed methodological approach aids marketing scholars in categorizing and analyzing the data collected for capturing market change; and better guiding experts/respondents to provide holistic projections of future market change. The authors show that using a predefined theoretical framework in combination with the Delphi method for data collection and analysis is beneficial for studying future market change.

This paper develops Delphi methodology and contributes with a novel methodological approach to assessing market change.

This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices.

The article emphasises alternative scenario development for the bases of decision making. This is done through an evaluation of Delphi studies and their feasibility for scenario construction. As an application of the information processes, both narrow and broad expert information processes are presented as alternative sources for solutions in public sector strategic planning.

Basically, there are two alternative ways to utilise Delphi studies in strategic planning and decision making: a broad expert information process (BEIP) model; and a narrow expert information process (NEIP) model.

As a broad process, an example is presented of the alternative future outcomes and the argumentation around it in the share of genetically modified plant varieties in commercial farming in Finland.

This theoretical review contributes to the discussions of the linkages between the use of expert information, the scenario planning and the strategic planning processes.

The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of the use of the Delphi technique to support curriculum development with a view to enhancing existing literature on use of the technique for renewal of business course curricula.

The authors outline the Delphi process for obtaining consensus amongst a diverse expert group, provide an overview of the results of the study to demonstrate its value and present an analysis of participants’ reflections on the Delphi process experience. Drawing on participants’ reflections and the experience of using the technique the authors present a “good practice guide” for others seeking to apply the technique and discuss implications for practice and research.

Analysis of participants’ feedback identified strengths and limitations of the process. Participants perceived that the process was efficient and fostered reflection on their own practice. The technique’s capacity to draw out varied views due to absence of dominant voices was highlighted. Limitations were perceived to be restrictiveness of the process and potential inability to address varying understandings. Participant feedback suggests the process may provide a fragmented approach to curriculum design.

The findings suggest avenues for future research, including examining how the Delphi technique can be incorporated into a holistic set of curriculum design field studies that are linked and ultimately lead to a well-designed curriculum.

Current literature on the Delphi technique does not provide participants’ perspectives on the process nor researcher reflections on use of the technique. The authors address this gap and generate good practice guidelines for using the Delphi technique as a tool for curriculum renewal.

The purpose of this article is to highlight the results of the online Delphi research project; in particular the procedures used to establish an online and innovative process of content validation and obtaining “rich” and descriptive information using the internet and current e‐learning technologies. The online Delphi was proven to be an excellent tool in establishing content validity for an HRD‐related construct, e.g. adult learning principles. A review of related literature revealed no existing research that used a web‐based Delphi technique to validate measurements used in training and development (T&D) or HRD.

Research methods included: a thorough review of the literature to construct an item pool of adult learning principles and instructional methods, and a Delphi expert panel consensus. The mean, mode, standard deviation, interquartile range, and skewness of the data were calculated from the voting procedures for determination of consensus. Evidence of reliability was indicated by the interrater reliability coefficient from a field test. In addition, the Gunning FOG Index for readability was calculated to improve the readability of the instrument.

To address the first research question the authors suggest that a valid instrument can be developed by a diverse Delphi expert panel that measures the application of adult learning principles to fully‐mediated world wide web‐based training. The second research question was answered by illustrating that the internet can assist a group of diverse and geographically dispersed subject‐matter experts in establishing a content valid measurement of instructional methods and techniques that demonstrate the application of adult learning principles to fully‐mediated web‐based training. And, finally, the paper concludes that a Delphi process can be established as a web‐based method to validate research measures.

This research helps to address the critical issue of how research is used in practice. Reasons why this research lends itself more to practice than other HRD research using more common qualitative or quantitative methods include: it is a relatively simple procedure requiring less than expert‐level skills; the Delphi uses expert opinion that is commonly used in training and development practice; and results are easy to interpret and practical.

This research is unique in its approach to developing a content valid instrument using state‐of‐the‐art technology coupled with a updated Delphi method. It is valuable to HRD and other professionals and researchers interested in developing valid measures across cultures and where experts are geographically dispersed.

This article presents an introduction to the Delphi method and review of Delphi studies published in the literature of library and information science (LIS).

A review of Delphi studies published between the years of 1971 and 2019 is performed, using studies retrieved from the Library and Information Science Source database. A total of 122 articles were retrieved and evaluated based on the population studied, means of identifying experts, number of participants for each study round, type of Delphi, and type of findings.

General librarians (any type), academic librarians, and information science researchers are the most common populations in LIS Delphi studies. On average (middle 50 percent of studies), 14–36 experts are used in the first round of LIS Delphi studies (median n = 23). Employment in a specific role and publications in scholarly journals are the most common means of identifying experts. Variants of the e-Delphi (online survey/email) method are increasingly common, particularly in LIS Delphi studies that focus on general information science, rather than library, topics. Though LIS Delphi studies are relatively few in number, they have a consistent record of being published in some of the most prestigious LIS journals.

This paper provides an introduction to the Delphi method for LIS research and presents an overview of existing literature in LIS that utilizes the research method. No overview of this extent exists in the LIS literature, and, thus, this paper may serve as an important information source about the method for LIS researchers.

Presents a case which suggests that companies in new‐technology‐based industries have a greater need for long‐term planning than those in other industries at other stages of development. During the period of an industry′s infancy, there is also a greater need for an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Judgemental forecasting techniques are suggested to be more suitable in new industries because of the problems associated with other forecasting methods. However, problems such as time pressure on executives and the need for confidentiality are more acute when using judgemental forecasting techniques in new industries. The Delphi technique has been used many times as a method of forecasting the future of established industries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a new industry. Discusses ten problems which can be encountered when Delphi is used in this situation and provides practical hints on procedures to overcome them, gained from its use to forecast changes in one new industry, the market analysis industry. Since new industries rarely have established trade organizations to carry out such Delphi studies, the role could be played by institutes of management education.

The Delphi technique is used to achieve consensus among experts and/or gain judgment on complex matters. This paper aims to discuss the classical Delphi and its advantages and disadvantages in qualitative research, particularly in hospitality.

The classical Delphi is characterized by the involvement of experts and its iterative nature. In an industry with high turnover and limited pools of specialist expertise this can lead to problems of attrition and management of the process. The paper presents two qualitative hospitality research case studies in which the classical Delphi is successfully modified to overcome its limitations.

Identifying potential problems early in the research process enables critical design decisions to be made. Case one used a parallel expert group with similar experience to develop a research instrument for a limited number of prestigious experts well‐acquainted with one another who might have reached specious consensus through channels not accessible to the researcher. Case two enabled the addition of new experts to an expert panel to overcome attrition in successive Delphi rounds.

Despite its growing popularity in social science, Delphi has rarely been used in qualitative hospitality research. The modifications suggested in this paper can enhance the robustness of the classical Delphi technique for qualitative hospitality research.

The paper shows how the classical Delphi technique can be successfully modified for use in qualitative hospitality research.

To anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state‐of‐the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.

Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan, South Korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes. Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross‐compared and visualized in an aggregated view.

By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are systematically mapped and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are also identified.

It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports. This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions. Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&T and the current capability.

The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis and the analytic practice deriving from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.

This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision‐making process, and to explore the roles of management accounting information to that.

An interpretive methodology was preferred, applying the case study method in a Greek company that had engaged in FDIs in the Balkans. In studying FDI decision‐making, the role of context (external environment and organisation) was taken into consideration.

The study reported here reveals that the FDI decision‐making process is cyclical in nature, with information continuously received, processed and used as feedback for subsequent action. This supports the view that the dichotomy between strategy formulation and implementation is a false one.

Although the FDI process should be recognised as iterative in nature, evidence from this study suggests that it can be thought of as comprising two main tasks, each of which makes different uses of management accounting information and reflects different decision‐making concerns. The first task concerns the decision whether or not to invest abroad while, the second task concerns decisions about how the project will be developed.

The implementation of capital investments enables the participation of various organizational actors trying to influence the final outcome of the process in line with their own interests. The recognition of differential political engagement within these two distinct decision‐making phases has implications for understanding capital investment practice and for reflecting on prior empirical evidence in this domain.

Encourages the use of Delphi for librarians in search of a research methodology. Describes one of many applications of the method, as an example of how the method can be employed in a library‐related problem solving process. The Delphi method is an effective means of consensus building, without all the meetings. Includes a description of one such consensus building process, used at an academic library a number of years ago, to determine standardized course content for a formal course in library instruction, a component of the university's general education initiative. A 134‐item checklist of learning objectives was distributed to participants, with the aim of refining the list based on an environmental scan of faculty librarians as experts. High consensus learning objectives were included in the manual, and low consensus objectives were not used. Discusses the viability of applying the Delphi technique to library science and librarianship.