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The authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis.

To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results.

EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity.

Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.

This study examines the value implications of oil price uncertainty for investors in diversified firms using a sample of 922 USA firms from 2001 to 2019.

Our study employs a panel dataset to examine the value implications of oil price uncertainty for diversified firm investors. We consider several alternative specifications to account for unobserved factors and measurement errors that could potentially bias our results. In particular, we use alternative measures of the excess value of diversified firms and oil price uncertainty, additional control variables, fixed-effects models, the Oster test, impact threshold for confounding variable (ITCV) analysis, two-stage least square instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) analysis and the system-GMM model.

We find that the excess value of diversified firms, relative to a benchmark portfolio of single-segment firms, increases with high oil price uncertainty. The impact of oil price uncertainty is asymmetric, as corporate diversification is value-increasing for diversified firm investors only when the volatility is due to positive oil price changes and amidst supply-driven oil price shocks. The excess value increases irrespective of diversified firms’ financial constraints and oil usage. Diversified firms become conservative in their internal capital allocations with high oil price uncertainty. Such conservatism is value-increasing for diversified firm investors, as it supports higher performance in response to oil price uncertainty.

Our study has three important implications: first, they are relevant to investors in understanding the portfolio value implications of oil price uncertainty. Second, they are helpful for firm managers while comprehending the value-relevant implications of internal capital allocations. Finally, our findings are policy relevant in the context of the future of diversified firms in developed markets.

It is imperative for policymakers, financial institutions, and individual investors to comprehend the factors that impact stock market participation, given the growing significance of the stock market in terms of personal and national wealth. This study endeavours to explore the relationship between cognitive ability and participation in the stock market. We examine the relationship between cognitive abilities and stock market participation, and further explore the mechanism of their influence.

The data from the China Family Panel Studies is utilized, and Tobit and Probit regressions are employed. Additionally, an instrumental variable approach (IV-estimate) is implemented to address the endogeneity issue linked to cognitive ability, and the study’s findings are resilient.

The results reveal a significant positive relationship between cognitive ability and stock market participation. Additionally, the findings suggest that households with higher cognitive ability tend to aggregate more information, expand social networks, and take more risks. A likely explanation is that individuals with higher cognitive ability are more likely to process more external information and evaluate the subjective uncertainty of stock markets based on a well-defined probability distribution. Our findings indicate that the impact of cognitive ability on stock market participation varies among families with differing education levels, genders, marital statuses, and geographical locations.

Therefore, the roles of cognitive abilities in accelerating stock market participation should be fully considered. More information channels and sources that contain financial markets’ information (e.g. mobile applications and financial education) should be provided. Thus, the significance of cognitive ability in increasing stock market participation should be fully considered. Providing more information channels and sources, such as mobile applications and financial education, that contain financial markets’ information would be helpful. Our study contributes to promoting financial literacy and inclusion by highlighting the significant positive impact of cognitive ability, where institutions can tailor their outreach efforts and information channels to better serve individuals with different cognitive ability.

This paper aims to provide a novel explorative perspective on fund managers’ decisions under uncertainty. The current COVID pandemic is used as a unique reference frame to study how heuristics are used in institutional financial practice.

This study follows a grounded theory approach. A total of 282 diverse publications between October 2019 and October 2020 for 20 German mutual funds are qualitatively analyzed. A theory of adaptive heuristics for fund managers is developed.

Fund managers adapt their heuristics during a crisis and this adaptive process flows through three stages. Increasing complexity in the environment leads to the adaption of simplest heuristics around investment decisions. Three distinct stages of adaption: precrisis, uncertainty and stabilization emerge from the data.

This study’s data is based on publicly available information. There might be a discrepancy between publicly stated and internal reasoning.

Money managers can use the provided framework to assess their decision-making in crises. The developed adaptive processes of heuristics can assist capital allocators who choose and rate fund managers. Policymakers and regulators can learn about the aspects of investor decisions that their actions and communication address. Teaching can use this study to exemplify the nature of financial markets as adaptive systems rather than static structures.

To the best of the author’s/authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to systematically explore the heuristics of professional money managers because they navigate a large-scale exogenous crisis.

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India and South Africa.

The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling framework.

The results showed that both in the long run and short run, rising uncertainty not only increases consumer prices significantly in these economies, but also impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths, and deters investment, employment and private consumption. Contrary to economic expectation, the results also showed that in the long run, declining uncertainty impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths in these economies, and significantly hinders employment in South Africa and Brazil. This suggests that in the long run, economic agents in these economies somewhat behave as if uncertainty is rising. The authors also found significant asymmetric effects in the response of real sector variables to uncertainty both in the long run and short run, which justifies the choice of NARDL framework for this study.

The sample is limited to Brazil, India, China and South Africa. While Brazil, India and China are three of the most prominent large emerging market economies, South Africa is the largest emerging market economy in Africa.

To lessen the adverse effects of policy uncertainty observed in the results, there is need for sound institutions and policy regimes that can promote predictable policy responses in these economies so that policy neither serves as a source of uncertainty nor as a channel through which the effects of other shocks are transmitted.

Apart from using the NARDL framework to capture the asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty, this study also accounted for the sectoral effects of uncertainty in emerging markets.