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This study presents evidence of a statistically significant negative correlation between crude oil and equities over the past 20 years. Including proper proportions of negatively correlated assets in a diversified portfolio can improve the ratio of reward relative to risk, and therefore, adding crude oil with equities into a diversified portfolio can provide superior portfolio performance, compared with equities alone. Because crude oil prices held stable for nearly a century before the oil crisis of 1973, and oil derivatives did not begin trading actively on public markets until the 1980s, the diversification value of oil is a relatively new phenomenon. Also contributing to the phenomenon, the majority of oil reserves and the majority of crude oil production capacity worldwide are held by entities that are not traded in public equity markets, and therefore, the diversification benefits of oil cannot be fully realized by holding a portion of the global market portfolio of equities.

This chapter develops a no-arbitrage, futures equilibrium cost-of-carry model to demonstrate that the existence of cointegration between spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil market depends crucially on the time-series properties of the underlying model. In marked contrast to previous studies, the futures equilibrium model utilizes information contained in both the quality delivery option and convenience yield as a timing delivery option in the NYMEX contract. Econometric tests of the speculative efficiency hypothesis (also termed the “unbiasedness hypothesis”) are developed and common tests of this hypothesis examined. The empirical results overwhelming support the hypotheses that the NYMEX future price is an unbiased predictor of future spot prices and that no-arbitrage opportunities are available. The results also demonstrate why common tests of the speculative efficiency hypothesis and simple arbitrage models often reject one or both of these hypotheses.

This chapter examines the oil and gas industry and the efficacy of vertical integration strategies. Using multiple theoretical lenses ranging from the resource-based view, transactions costs, and parenting perspective, the chapter considers different arguments associated with vertical integration. The 2011 breakup of ConocoPhillips and its global value chain helps address the question of which strategy is best – integrated or nonintegrated. We provide several conclusions about the structure of integration and value chains within the oil and gas industry. First, vertical integration based on the physical transfer of products between value chain activities will generate little firm advantage in the form of classical integration benefits, such as control over input quality or speed to market. Second, competing across the industry value chain as a hedge or strategy against industry cyclicality is not theoretically defensible. Third, pure play industry specialists can create value through management focus, agility, and, transparency for investors. Fourth, firms that compete across a wide range of industry value chain activities can create value-adding corporate strategies if they are able to leverage knowledge and assets across different industry sectors.

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact on the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between alternative oil market models, let alone the basis for the sometimes divergent conclusions reached in the literature. The purpose of this survey is to provide a guide to this literature. Our focus is on the econometric foundations of the analysis of oil market models with special attention to the identifying assumptions and methods of inference.

Global trading of oil and gas means international markets are more open than at any previous time. As a result, the oil industry oligopoly is being deconstructed and vertically integrated MNCs are being reconstituted to address this fact. In parallel, emergent MNCs in the form of National Oil Companies are now entering the competitive arena. Traditionally dominant MNCs are adopting new operating models focused on technological and financial strength. We examine changes in the once-dominant industry paradigm of vertical integration using several theoretical lenses. These include transaction-cost economics, the resource-based view and institution theory. The giant MNCs operated globally for decades and are an important variant of the MNCs studied in strategic management literature. We suggest the current theoretical models do not explain sufficiently how these MNCs respond to current changes and by using industry observation we contribute to modernization of this literature.