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Credit spread change is a key issue for investors to earn the excess return from corporate bonds. Generally, there are two kinds of different effects that support the changing of credit spread: asset allocation effect and credit risk change effect. The existing literature based on US data supports credit spread change is driven by credit risk change; however, this issue based on Chinese market data has not been investigated clearly. This paper seeks to address this issue.

The authors adopt Markov regime switching model to investigate the changing mode of the credit spread in the Chinese bond market. They select three kinds of variables: the credit risk variables, the asset allocation variables and the liquidity condition variables. With ML estimators, the authors can find the changing mode and further they study the relationship between the regime switching and some observed variables, such as macro economy variables and turnover of stock market.

The authors find it is driven by asset allocation effect in most time and by credit risk change only in shorter period. Empirical results show that the switching of dominance from one effect to another isn't closely related with macro‐economy variables, but related with the turnover of stock market.

These results indicate that in China the credit risk of corporate bonds is relatively low and the corporate bonds are still auxiliary asset for investors.

In this paper, the authors have the following two contributions: first, they discuss the asset allocation effect in the Chinese bond market and introduce the stock market variables and bank credit variable to describe the asset allocation effect; second, based on Chinese bond market data, they find different findings from the existing literature about US and European bond markets, showing that the changing of credit spread is mostly related with asset allocation effect but not credit risk change.

The authors investigate the implications of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices of firms for the pricing of their credit default swaps (CDS). In doing so, the authors compare European and US firms and consider nonlinear and indirect effects. This complements the previous literature focusing on linear and direct effects using bond yields and credit ratings of US firms.

For this purpose, the authors apply fixed effects regressions on a comprehensive panel data set of US and European firms. Further, nonlinear and indirect effects are investigated utilizing quantile regressions and a path analysis.

The evidence indicates that higher ESG ratings mitigate credit risks of US and European firms from 2007 to 2019. The risk mitigation effect is U-shaped across ESG quantiles, which is consistent with opposing effects of growing stakeholder influence capacity and diminishing marginal returns on ESG investments. The authors further reveal a mediating indirect volatility channel that substantially amplifies the direct effect of ESG on credit risk. A one-standard-deviation improvement in ESG ratings is estimated to reduce CDS spreads of low, medium and high ESG firms by approximately 4%, 8% and 3%, respectively.

This is the first study to examine whether credit markets reflect regional differences between Europe and the US with regard to the ESG-CDS-relationship. In addition, this paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating differences in the response of CDS spreads across ESG quantiles and to study potential indirect channels connecting ESG and CDS spreads using structural credit risk variables.

The paper examines the impact of the deteriorating fiscal conditions of Eurozone countries on spillover effects on bank credit margins. It is investigated whether these effects have been reduced after European Central Bank’s (ECB) signaling of pursuing an expansionary, unconventional, monetary policy to address the debt crisis in Eurozone.

A general econometric panel model is applied to investigate spillover effects between Eurozone countries and bank credit margins. In total, three periods are examined: the period before the peak of the global financial crisis and the beginning of the Irish banking crisis, the period during the debt and bank crisis in Eurozone and the period after ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing.

According to empirical results, before the peak of the global financial crisis there was no substantial credit risk transfer from Eurozone sovereigns to banks. During the period of debt and bank crisis in Eurozone, the deterioration of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries had a significant impact on bank Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. After ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing, it does not seem to be any significant relationship between Eurozone sovereigns and bank CDS spreads. These findings reinforce the assessment that ECB's measures were effective, achieving the key objective of normalizing economic conditions and ensuring financial stability in Eurozone.

A question is whether effects can change when the corresponding contraction will lead to a reinstatement of “normal” conditions. Would there be a reversal of risk premium trends in bond markets? Although the answer from casual observations seems to be negative, it is a valid research question to be examined. An interesting issue concerning the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by ECB concerns the issues of moral hazard that they incorporate, something that could not be addressed. Another research perspective could be the use of the beta coefficient to measure the systematic and unsystematic risk of banking sector shares.

The results have strong implications for ECB and European banking regulation. Regulators should mainly pay more attention to the amount and concentration of sovereign debt held by banks. Eurozone financial system could be less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk. It raised the critical question of whether a more strict regulation is needed. Regulators should not intervene if not necessary, but they must prevent the transmission of crises between markets. This will likely bring trust to the developed countries' sovereign debt and the portfolios of the financial institutions, which hold most of this debt will be considered safe as well.

The conclusions provide a safe counterweight in various respects. First, the negative effects and the need to rapidly cease or limit such policies. Second, the financial stability aimed by ECB. Such policies contain the possibility of a subsequent moral hazard related to Member State and bank behavior. However, these contingencies need to be assessed with the benefits resulting from the restoration of financial markets and the disconnection between banking and sovereign credit risk. This leads Eurozone's financial system to become less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk and therefore more safe, helping to restore confidence in the real economy.

Contribution in terms of methodology and conclusions. It offers important conclusions regarding the limitations of yields and volatility of CDS spreads. It examines the spillover effects of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries on banking institutions by extending the existing methodology and introducing new questions focusing on the reaction of CDS market to the ECB monetary policy, the reduction of risk premiums at sovereign and banking level and the gradual reduction of interdependence between them.

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of financial contagion between Eurozone banks, observing the credit default swaps (CDSs) market during the period 2009–2017.

The authors use a dynamic spatial Durbin model that enables to explore the direct and indirect effects over the short and long run and the transmission channels of the contagion.

The results show how contagion emerges through physical and financial market links between banks. This finding implies that a bank can fail because people expect other related financial institutions to fail as well (self-fulfilling crisis). The study provides statistically significant evidence of the presence of credit risk spillovers in CDS markets. The findings show that equity market dynamics of “neighbouring” banks are important factors in risk transmission.

The research provides a new contribution to the analysis of EZ banking risk contagion, studying CDS spread determinants both under a temporal and spatial dimension. Considering the cross-dependence of credit spreads, the study allowed to verify the non-linearity between the probability of default of a debtor and the observed credit spreads (credit spread puzzle). The authors provide information on the transmission mechanism of contagion and, on the effects among the largest banks. In fact, through the study of short- and long-term impacts, direct and indirect, the paper classify banks of systemic importance according to their effect on the financial system.

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance of Tunisian listed banks over the period 1999–2019.

To identify the relationship between EPU, credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance, we have proceeded with a fixed effects panel regression model over the period 1999–2019.

Our empirical analysis showed a significant positive effect of EPU on credit risk and a significant negative effect on loan size and performance. We have also found that state-owned banks were the most affected by increasing EPU. Their credit risk has increased and their returns have decreased. While highly leveraged private banks have recorded a sharp decline in their results.

Facing increasing credit risks, generated by EPU, Tunisian banks are allowed to revise their lending decisions to ensure consequently their sustainability and performance.

Tunisian resident banks should set up a monitoring system and an early-warning system of credit risk in order to guarantee both, their performance and the sustainability of the economy's financing.

A good banking governance and a stable economic and political environment are the key factors that improve the allocation of credit, credit risk diversification and the creation of added value for the different activity sectors.

On the theoretical as well as on the empirical level, the analysis of the Tunisia EPU on credit risk, bank lending strategy and banking performance was not handled previously in the literature. It was noted that state banks are more influenced by the increase of EPU. Their credit risk has increased and their returns have declined. However, private banks with a high leverage effect have recorded a net decrease in their results. Since the 2011 revolution, invisibility and EPU have largely influenced the bank lending decisions and subsequently banking performance.

Based on a sample of 1,872 firm-year observations for 573 global firms over the period 2013–2016, this study aims to provide empirical evidence on how environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance affects corporate creditworthiness as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads.

The authors use a regression model that accounts for country, industry and time-fixed effects as well as the instrumental-based Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to dynamic panel modeling.

This study finds that improvements in ESG performance, especially in its governance pillar, reduce credit risk. Further, the authors uncover evidence suggesting the complementarity between ESG performance and country-level sustainability. The results indicate a stronger risk-mitigating impact of ESG performance in countries with higher sustainability scores.

In terms of practical implications, the findings suggest that corporations should strengthen governance frameworks and procedures to reduce credit risk, prior to embarking on environmental and social objectives. Further, the finding that country sustainability is an important determinant of CDS spreads suggests that country-level sustainability initiatives would not only help to preserve natural capital and promote social capital but also be beneficial to businesses and financial stability.

The study adds to the literature on the effects of ESG performance on credit risk by (1) utilizing a measure of ESG performance that considers the financial materiality of ESG issues across different industries; (2) utilizing a market-based measure of credit risk and CDS spreads; (3) examining the relative importance of ESG components to credit risk, rather than just the aggregate measure; and (4) assessing the influence of country sustainability on the relationship between ESG and credit risk.

Using bank-level data over the 1994–2015 period, the authors aim to investigate the role of bank-specific factors on credit risk in Italy by considering two different groups of banks, namely, cooperative and non-cooperative (commercial and popular), in different local markets.

Relying on highly territorially disaggregated data at labour market areas’ level, the authors estimate the impact of the role of bank-specific factors on credit risk in Italy from the estimation of a fixed-effect estimator. Non-performing loans to total loans has been used as a proxy of credit risk; the bank-specific factors are as follows: growth of loans, reflecting credit policy; log of total assets, controlling for banks’ size; loans to total assets, reflecting the volume of credit market; equity to total assets, capturing the solvency of banks and reflecting their capital strength; return on assets, reflecting the profitability of banks; deposits to loans, reflecting the intermediation cost; cost of total assets, reflecting the banks’ efficiency or volume of intermediation cost.

The empirical findings suggest that regulatory credit policy, capitalisation, volume of credit and volume of intermediation costs are the main bank-specific factors affecting non-performing loans. Nevertheless, the present analysis suggests that the behaviour of cooperative banks’ behaviour seems to be in line with that of commercial rather than popular banks, casting doubts about the feasibility of their credit policies. It turns out that recent reforms involving popular and cooperative banks represent the first step toward the enhancement of the stability and efficiency of the Italian banking system. While the present study’s benchmark results are not particularly affected by the degree of competition in the banking sector and by banks’ size, it shows that both cooperative and non-cooperative banks have undertaken more prudent credit policies after the advent of the financial crisis and the introduction of the Basel regulation.

The relationship between bank-specific factors and credit risk has been analysed using a rich sample of cooperative, commercial and popular banks in Italy over the 1994–2015 period. The authors rely on labour market areas being sub-regional geographical areas where the bulk of the labour force lives and works. The contribution is motivated by the financial distress experienced after the 2008 financial crisis, which has significantly hit the Italian banking system and cooperative banks in particular.

This study explores the effect of income diversification strategy on credit risk and market risk of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Ghana as an emerging market.

The study is based on quarterly data of averagely 271 MFIs that have operated from 2016 to 2018. The dataset is unbalanced and pooled cross-sectional with 3,259 data points. The study measures the diversification strategy using income diversification indices, and accounting ratios to measure the other variables. We utilised the weighted least squares (WLS) approach to explore the nexus.

The findings show that income diversification is associated with better loan quality and credit risk management. Market risk increases with the level of income diversification of microfinance firms. It is evident that large MFIs can manage their credit risks well and can have a low default rate, depicting an overall U-shaped nexus. On the other hand, the effect of size on market risk is an inverted U-shaped. The effect of asset tangibility on credit risk is positively significant while the effect on market risk is negatively significant. High profitability enhances credit risk management leading to lower loan losses while in the case of diversified and profitable MFIs, they tend to invest more in government securities. The results suggest that MFIs that hold more cash and cash equivalents tend to have high loan loss provision and more government securities suggesting much attention should be paid to optimal cash management.

The results throw light on the credit risk and market risk profile of the firms and the effect of diversification strategies on them. The findings are relevant for effective macroprudential regulation, market regulation and prudential regulation of the microfinance sector.

The findings reveal the nature of income diversification strategy of MFIs in emerging markets such as Ghana, pointing out how they affect the risk exposure of MFIs that lend to the pro-poor population.

This is a premier formal assessment of the nexus between income diversification strategies and risk management among MFIs that serve the pro-poor population in the emerging market context.

This study aims to capture the “persistence effect” of credit risk in Indian banking industry using the bank-level data spanning over the period of 19 years from 1998/1999 to 2016/17. Alongside, the study explored how the bank-specific, industry-specific, macroeconomic variables alongside regulatory reforms, ownership changes and financial crisis affect the bank's asset quality in India.

Using two-step system generalized method of moment (GMM) approach, the study derives key factors that affect the bank's asset quality in India.

The empirical results confirm the time persistence of credit risk among Indian banks during study period. This reflects that bank defaults are expected to increase in the current year, if it had increased past year due to time lag involved in the process of recovery of past dues. Further, higher profitability, better managerial efficiency, more diversified income from nontraditional activities, optimal size of banks, proper credit screening and monitoring and adherence regulatory norms would help in improving the credit quality of Indian banks.

The practical implication drawn from the study is that nonaccumulation of nonperforming loans (NPLs), higher profitability, better managerial efficiency, more diversified income from nontraditional activities, optimal size of banks, proper credit screening and monitoring and adherence regulatory norms would help in improving the credit quality of Indian banks.

This study is probably the first one that identifies in addition to the current year, whether lag of bank industry-macroeconomic affects the level of NPLs of Indian banks. So far, such an analysis has received less attention with respect to Indian banking industry, especially immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of bank consolidation and foreign ownership on bank risk taking in the Egyptian banking sector.

Following prior studies (e.g. Yeyati and Micco, 2007; Barry et al., 2011), this study uses pooled Ordinary Least Squares regression models under two main analyses to test the relation between concentration and foreign ownership on one hand and bank risk-taking behavior on the other hand, where observations are pooled across banks and years for the 2000-2011 period. The reform plan was launched in 2004 and resulted in various restructuring activities in the banking system. Thus, to control for the effect of implementing the financial sector reform plan on bank insolvency and credit risk, this study includes a reform dummy variable (RFM) for the post-reform period in models testing the association between consolidation, foreign ownership and bank risk. Therefore, this categorical variable identifies whether bank risk is related to the reform activities that have been observed during the post-restructuring period, 2005-2011. Moreover, to accommodate the possibility that effects of bank concentration and foreign ownership on bank risk differ due to the implementation of the reform plan, the author create two interaction terms: one uses the product of the reform dummy variable and concentration measures, while the other uses the product of the reform dummy and foreign ownership variables to capture interactions. These interaction terms and the dummy variable provide ample room to capture the effect of bank concentration and foreign ownership on bank risks during the post-reform period.

This study provides empirical evidence that bank concentration is associated with low insolvency risk and credit risk as measured by loan loss provisions (LLP) in the post-reform period. These results are consistent with the “concentration-stability” view, suggesting that concentration of the banking sector will enhance stability. Moreover, evidence shows that while a higher presence of foreign banks reduces bank credit risk in the post-reform period, it appears to increase insolvency risk. These results are robust to using alternative measures. These findings imply that regulators in emerging countries should support foreign investments in banks to transfer better managerial skills and systems. However, government-owned banks are found to be more prone to insolvency and credit risks; thus, their ownership should not be encouraged. Finally, policy makers should reinforce bank consolidation, be prudent in determining the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and monitor intensively less profitable, well-capitalized and small-sized banks.

Consolidation of the banking sector decreases insolvency risk and credit risk, as measured by LLP in the post-reform period. This study proposes that bank supervisors implement prudent polices in determining the bank CAR, and monitor intensively less profitable, well-capitalized and smaller banks, as they have incentives to increase risk. In addition, regulators should encourage foreign investment in the banking sector and facilitate their operations in Egypt.

Bank supervisors should intensely monitor banks with high-CARs that exceed mandatory requirements because they may be more likely to engage in more risk-taking activities.

It provides empirical evidence from a country-specific, emerging market perspective, in which restructuring events affect the national economy. Egypt, similar to other emerging countries in Africa, pursues an institutionally based (bank-based) system of corporate governance, where banks are the primary sources of finance for firms. Therefore, restructuring banks and other financial institutions and supervising their operations ensure the soundness and stability of these institutions, which represent the nerve of emerging economies. Because emerging countries tend to share common characteristics and economic conditions, and the reform of their financial systems is significant for economic development, the Egyptian banking reform and restructuring program should be of interest to other emerging countries to capitalize on this experiment. While international studies on these relationships are mostly cross-country or focus on US banks, firm-specific studies are scant. Furthermore, the findings of this study should be of interest to Egyptian regulators, bank supervisors and policy makers studying the implications of bank reforms.