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Purpose: This study examines whether changes in environmental and funding uncertainty during the first three years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis (which we presume to have increased significantly) are associated with changes in cost system design and intensity of use.

Design/methodology/approach: A dataset of survey responses from 56 Dutch municipalities is used for the empirical analyses. In the questionnaire, a senior-level financial manager reflected on the changes that he or she had perceived during the three years prior to the study (which was conducted at the end of 2010).

Findings: The results show that during these years, on average, ­environmental and funding uncertainty have indeed significantly increased, whereas cost system design and intensity of use have shown little change. The results further indicate that change in environmental uncertainty is positively related to changes in cost system complexity and cost system inclusiveness for activities and/or programs, whereas change in funding uncertainty is positively related to change in cost system intensity of use for product costing purposes. Also, change in cost system complexity is positively related to changes in cost system intensity of use for both operational control and product costing purposes.

Originality/value: Whereas previous large-scale research tends to focus on how the level of cost system design and/or intensity of use characteristics is related to the level of contextual factors, this study focuses on how changes in cost system design and intensity of use characteristics are related to changes in contextual factors. Also distinctive is that this study focuses on local government organizations experiencing a fiscal crisis.

We discuss recent developments in real options theory and its applications to strategic management research, examine the potential difficulties in implementing real options in theory and practice, and propose several areas for future research. Our review shows that real options theory has provided substantial insights into investment and exit decisions as well as into the choice of investment modes. In addition, extant research studies have contributed significantly to our understanding of whether and how organizations can benefit from real options. Future research that addresses difficulties in applications will further advance both real options theory and practice in strategic management. We call for future generations of research to enhance the impact of real options as an emerging dominant conceptual lens in strategic management.

This paper reports on the results of a research project aimed at estimating the costs of border crossing transit time and uncertainty for the U.S. and Canadian economies. The cost estimates are based on a review of prior reports, some 20 site visits to seven key crossings, and 173 interviews of knowledgeable organizations/persons. The key finding is that border transit time and uncertainty are costing some U.S.$4.01 billion, or 1.05% of total 2001 merchandise trade, and 1.58% of truck-based trade levels. The primary implication of the research is that it provides a baseline estimate of costs that can be used in cost-benefit analysis of alternative border management strategies.

The Public Organisation Risk Management concept challenges managers to develop a means of systematically identifying and managing key features of the organisation’s uncertainty field (its risks, uncertainties, the unknown and emergent, and the human perception/behaviour component). This presents an immense challenge, as it seems an organisation would need – in some sense – to identify all aspects of the environment before then isolating that subset of the most important risks and uncertainties. Clearly this is impossible, but a conscious awareness of this limitation might be valuable in its own right.

Assessment and analysis refers to the systematic and ongoing process by which a public organisation identifies, analyses, and measures the key components of its uncertainty field. A foundation concept that governs assessment and analysis is the view that public organisations are, in effect, collections of contracts, obligations, commitments, and agreements between the government and resource holders. Those arrangements serve as means by which the public organisation becomes exposed to the elements of the uncertainty field. Those elements, in turn, arise from the physical, social, political, economic, legal, operational, and cognitive environments.

A more detailed exposition of assessment and analysis appears in both Chapters Six and Seven. Here, in Chapter Five the goal is to set the foundation for such an exploration. Key terms and concepts are presented, and some core issues are introduced. As with all chapters, the discussion will address what have been identified as ‘traditional’ as well as enterprise risk management influenced perspectives. This in turn will lead to some coverage of alternative thinking about the assessment and analysis process.

The goal of this paper is to analyze the views of Frank Knight and Ludwig von Mises on the topic of uncertainty and how it influences the theory of individual decision-making and to trace out the implications of the same for the theories of entrepreneurship, equilibrium, and the firm. The paper adopts a historical approach in its analysis of the theory of uncertainty, with an extended discussion of the primary writings of Knight and Mises on this topic. It then uses the insights gleaned from this discussion in order to address issues and topics that have found a prominent place in the modern literature on entrepreneurship, equilibrium, and the firm that draws its inspiration from the Austrian School. The paper offers three main findings: in the realm of entrepreneurship it argues that there can be no theory of the entrepreneur without the concept of uncertainty provided by Knight and Mises, whereas with regard to the theory of equilibrium it focuses on highlighting the concept of an equilibrium with error prevalent in the Austrian tradition and on the implications that an explicit introduction of uncertainty has for the existence of a process of equilibration that pushes the economy toward a state of general equilibrium in real time. As regards the theory of the firm we find that a proper understanding of uncertainty ultimately reverses the direction of any causal explanation of economic organization, making the firm an outcome of dealing with uncertainty rather than a means to do so.

This chapter considers the analysis of a cost-effectiveness dataset from an econometrics perspective. We link cost-effectiveness analysis to the net benefit regression framework and explore insights and opportunities from econometrics and their practical implications. As an empirical illustration, we compare various econometric techniques using a cost-effectiveness dataset from a published study. The chapter concludes with a discussion about implications for applied practitioners and future research directions.

The robust appraisal of exploration drilling concepts is essential for establishing the economic viability of a prospective recovery field. This study evaluates the different concept selection methods that were considered for drilling operations at the Trym field in Norway. The construction of drilling rigs is a capital-intensive process, and it involves high levels of economic risk. These risks can be broadly categorised as aleatoric (i.e. those related to chance) and epistemic (i.e. those related to knowledge). Evaluating risks in the investment appraisal process tends to be a complicated process. Project risks are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and are based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP). MCS provides a useful means of evaluating variabilities (i.e. aleatoric risks) in oil drilling operations. However, many of the economic risks in oil drilling processes are unanticipated, and, in some cases, are not readily expressible in quantitative values. The fuzzy AHP is therefore used to appraise the qualitatively defined indirect revenues comprising risks that affect future flexibilities, schedule certainty and health and safety performance. Both the Monte Carlo technique and the fuzzy AHP technique found that a cumulative revenue variation of up to 30% is possible in any of the considered drilling options. The fuzzy AHP technique estimates that the chances of profitability being less than NOK 1 billion over a five-year period is 0.5%, while the Monte Carlo technique estimates suggest a more conservative proportion of 10%. Overall, the fuzzy AHP technique is easy to use and flexible, and it demonstrates increased robustness and improved predictability.

Purpose: This chapter looks specifically at the sources of economic policy uncertainty in Nigeria, and discusses their impact on the Nigerian economy while drawing implications for Africa. It identifies factors that transmit uncertainty in economic policy in Nigeria and draw implications for other African countries.

Methodology: This chapter uses a literature survey methodology to identify the sources of economic policy uncertainty in Nigeria.

Findings: The identified sources of economic policy uncertainty in Nigeria are: the frequent changes in central bank policy, unexpected changes in government policy, political interference, unexpected fall in global oil price, recession, and unethical practices.

Implications: The implication of the study is that rising economic policy uncertainty in Nigeria can have a significant effect on the Nigerian economy and for connected African countries.

Originality: Previous studies have not examined the sources of economic policy uncertainty in Nigeria.

The second major area of the so-called risk treatment is risk financing. Risk financing includes measures to finance the costs of losses, risks, and uncertainties. Historically, risk financing has been virtually synonymous with buying insurance. However, over time alternatives to insurance have evolved – self-insurance, pools, captives, large deductible programmes, finite insurance programmes, banking arrangements, and capital market-based solutions. The concept of risk financing has expanded to include products that address a range of financial risks such as interest rate and credit risk. These products include derivatives and some new innovative securities.

Today, the rapid development of the risk financing market has created several practical problems. Notably, regulatory and legal structures have not always kept pace with change, leading to much confusion about risk financing alternatives. Many products look and function almost identically to others, and yet history and custom have dictated very different treatment by regulators, tax authorities, and others. There is growing pressure for significant legal and regulatory realignment.

For newcomers to the field, risk financing measures can be thought of as existing on a continuum, ranging from pure retention (all losses paid directly out of pocket) to pure transfer (where a third party accepts and bears the full costs of risk). An important recognition of the continuum of risk financing is that there are no products that are fully retention or transfer, but rather a varying blend of the two. Hedging of risk, for example, is arguably here a near perfect blending of a retention and a transfer of risk.