Search results

Acknowledging fiscal crises as critical junctures for policy makers, this paper investigates how the recent fiscal crisis has affected the paradigmatic approach to the design of an ongoing governmental accounting (GA) reform.

This paper analyses the Italian GA harmonization as a peculiar instance of an ongoing GA reform at the crisis outbreak. A longitudinal narrative analysis of official documents is complemented with semi-structured interviews with key policy makers and participant observations.

The fiscal crisis is found to play an indirect role in the Italian GA reform, which, promoting centralization of competencies in the fields of GA, determines the intensification of the approach adopted before the crisis outbreak.

This paper extends the knowledge on the nature of post-crisis reforms by highlighting how fiscal crises can work as catalysts for paradigmatic approaches to ongoing GA reforms. This paper analyses the designing of a GA reform, whereas the long-term adaptations and outcomes of the reform are not taken into consideration.

The tight link between GA and financial management issues featuring the current paradigmatic approaches to reforms suggests the need to design GA reforms consistently with fiscal and financial management policies.

Whereas the extant literature on the nature of post-crisis reforms analyses the latter as responses to the former, this paper enlarges the knowledge on the topic by focusing on a peculiar instance of a GA reform that was ongoing at the crisis outbreak.

Since regaining its independence, the Estonian government has followed policies of fiscal consolidation when responding to economic crises. Its response to the COVID-19-crisis has been quite different – it has authorized additional expenditures, cut taxes and incurred considerable debt. This paper gives an overview of the budgetary measures adopted and explores the question: why was it different this time?

The authors draw upon policy documents to zoom in on the main political, institutional and economic factors that help to explain Estonia's departure from extreme fiscal conservatism in the midst of the global pandemic.

The authors found the key political factors to be the party composition of the government, policy diffusion and policy learning. Key economic factors included Estonia's very low level of debt prior to the crisis and credit market advantages gained from Eurozone membership.

Estonia presents an interesting case because in all previous crises it responded with fiscal consolidation, whereas it is now responding with extensive fiscal stimulus.

Soon after the Lehman crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) surprised its critics with a reconsideration of its research and advice on fiscal policy. The paper traces the influence that the Fund’s senior management and research elite has had on the recalibration of the IMF’s doctrine on fiscal policy. The findings suggest that overall there has been some selective incorporation of unorthodox ideas in the Fund’s fiscal doctrine, while the strong thesis that austerity has expansionary effects has been rejected. Indeed, the Fund’s new orthodoxy is concerned with the recessionary effects of fiscal consolidation and, more recently, endorses calls for a more progressive adjustment of the costs of fiscal sustainability. These changes notwithstanding, the IMF’s adaptive incremental transformation on fiscal policy issues falls short of a paradigm shift and is best conceived of as an important recalibration of the precrisis status quo.

The objective of this chapter is to examine the recent experiences of capital flows and the associated fiscal imbalances since the inception of the Eurozone. We show that the standard explanation for understanding these fiscal imbalances and capital flows is viable, but is not complete given the unique circumstances surrounding these fiscal imbalances within the Eurozone. That is, the creation of the Eurozone provided some fiscal and monetary stability up until the shock of the 2008 Financial Crisis. After the 2008 Financial Crisis, the interaction between the current account and fiscal imbalances started to spread throughout the Eurozone members and many of these Eurozone members began to engage in policies in an attempt to restore stability and to stem capital outflows by implementing fiscal reforms. In fact, some of the Eurozone members attempted to restore their fiscal viability in response to the 2008 Financial Crisis, but not with much success. Thus, the Eurozone members, collectively, need to reexamine best practices to implement fiscal policies that are resistant to intense financial shocks. Empirically, we examined the following two hypotheses in this chapter via the Wald test statistic. The first hypothesis examined the effect of the own country fiscal imbalances within own country is uniform across all the Eurozone members. Then, the second hypothesis examined the fiscal imbalances of one Eurozone member do not have on other Eurozone members. The Wald test statistic rejected both hypotheses.

Although the Chinese economy has experienced a strong and rapid growth due to the success of its economic reform, the Chinese central government faces a stern fiscal decline. The fiscal problem has undermined the ability of the central government in completing many crucial governing tasks. By examining the institutional root of the fiscal problem, this paper argues that the fiscal decline is part of the ironic corollary of the decentralization strategy of China’s economic reform which produces a “weak center, strong local” outcome. To fully address the problem, China should undertake major institutional reforms to redefine as well as institutionalize the fiscal roles of different levels of government.

This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.

The index is constructed using twelve distinct fiscal indicators and applying the portfolio method, which considers the time-varying cross-correlation structure between the subindices.

Dynamics of the fiscal vulnerability index indicate that it accurately predicts to the well-known fiscal crisis occurring in Türkiye's recent history. As a result, such a compound measure should be used in the early identification of fiscal vulnerability in Türkiye.

The main contribution of this paper, relative to existing papers, is that a fiscal vulnerability index was constructed by employing the most contemporaneous method and evaluating its performance in terms of capturing historical stress periods.

Over the years, public sector reforms in emerging economies have focused on improving national budget systems and financial management practices to promote sustainable development. In the context of the COVID-19 crisis, this article examines whether the strength or effectiveness of national budget systems and related financial management practices moderates the impact of fiscal policy measures on economic recovery and resilience.

The article uses bivariate correlations and difference-in-difference analyses to examine the relationship between budget system effectiveness, government stimulus measures and forecasts of economic recovery and resilience. The analysis uses data from the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) program, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.

The article finds that estimates of economic recovery and resilience are higher in countries with more reliable budget processes and more transparent public finances. Also, the strength or effectiveness of the budget system before the pandemic appears to moderate the impact of government stimulus measures on economic recovery and resilience over a medium-term forecast horizon.

This is a prospective analysis based on economic forecasts from the IMF, which are subject to change in the coming years. In addition, the analysis uses subjective budget system indicators, which present measurement challenges that often influence this area of research. Better comparative data in the future, for example, large administrative datasets, will enable researchers to explore these issues with less estimation bias.

The findings are relevant for policymakers and budget officials in developing countries in Africa who are engaged in plans to improve national budget systems and enhance resilience to crises, such as the COVID-19-induced economic crisis. The findings also have implications for developing countries beyond Africa with similar economic and fiscal conditions.

The findings have implications for economic and budgetary planning for the social sector as well as the efficient delivery of public services in developing countries. Public managers have a critical role to play in adapting national budget systems and financial management reforms within complex and evolving economic circumstances even after the coronavirus pandemic.

The authors use novel and latest data on country responses to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as medium-term economic forecasts to examine the relationship between national budget systems and post-pandemic economic recovery and resilience in the African context. Previous research has only addressed these issues in the context of industrialized countries, and a limited number of empirical studies examine these relationships. The findings also have significant value for policymakers outside Africa who are facing similar challenges related to the coronavirus pandemic.

This chapter is devoted to fiscal policy theory and to how its evolution influenced the policy principles implemented from the end of the World War II to the present. It shows how the theoretical foundations evolved, from the Keynesian theory according to which public expenditure was conceived as an instrument to sustain aggregate demand and achieve full employment, to the present theoretical framework in which, following the intertemporal approach, it has been downgraded to an external shock. The public debt issue is examined with the aim of explaining why sound public finance represents a primary policy objective in the Eurozone.

Although the trigger for the European economic and financial crisis was the subprime and subsequently banking crisis in the USA, the true roots of theEuropean malaise are to be found in the structural weaknesses of the European growth and Euro area development model based on debt financing of public and private expenditure and investment. These drivers were amplified by the lack of effective economic policy mechanisms from both the monetary and fiscal sides of macro-economic management. The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 did not cause the underlying imbalances that are currently acting to tear apart the Euro area monetary and fiscal systems. Instead, it crystallised markets and public attention on the underlying core cause of the overall Euro crisis – the insolvency of the public financing system of the European Union (EU) member states.