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The purpose of this paper is to present competing risks models and show how dwell times can be applied to predict users’ online behavior. This information enables real-time personalization of web content.

This paper models transitions between pages based upon the dwell time of the initial state and then analyzes data from a web shop, illustrating how pages that are linked “compete” against each other. Relative risks for web page transitions are estimated based on the dwell time within a clickstream and survival analysis is used to predict clickstreams.

Using survival analysis and user dwell times allows for a detailed examination of transition behavior over time for different subgroups of internet users. Differences between buyers and non-buyers are shown.

As opposed to other academic fields, survival analysis has only infrequently been used in internet-related research. This paper illustrates how a novel application of this method yields interesting insights into internet users’ online behavior.

A key goal of any online retailer is to increase their customer conversation rates. Using survival analysis, this paper shows how dwell-time information, which can be easily extracted from any server log file, can be used to predict user behavior in real time. Companies can apply this information to design websites that dynamically adjust to assumed user behavior.

The method shows novel clickstream analysis not previously demonstrated. Importantly, this can support the move from web analytics and “big data” from hype to reality.

Purchase conversion prediction aims to improve user experience and convert visitors into real buyers to drive sales of firms; however, the total conversion rate is low, especially for e-retailers. To date, little is known about how e-retailers can scientifically detect users' intents within a purchase conversion funnel during their ongoing sessions and strategically optimize real-time marketing tactics corresponding to dynamic intent states. This study mainly aims to detect a real-time state of the conversion funnel based on graph theory, which refers to a five-class classification problem in the overt real-time choice decisions (RTCDs)—click, tag-to-wishlist, add-to-cart, remove-from-cart and purchase—during an ongoing session.

The authors propose a novel graph-theoretic framework to detect different states of the conversion funnel by identifying a user's unobserved mindset revealed from their navigation process graph, namely clickstream graph. First, the raw clickstream data are identified into individual sessions based on a 30-min time-out heuristic approach. Then, the authors convert each session into a sequence of temporal item-level clickstream graphs and conduct a temporal graph feature engineering according to the basic, single-, dyadic- and triadic-node and global characteristics. Furthermore, the synthetic minority oversampling technique is adopted to address with the problem of classifying imbalanced data. Finally, the authors train and test the proposed approach with several popular artificial intelligence algorithms.

The graph-theoretic approach validates that users' latent intent states within the conversion funnel can be interpreted as time-varying natures of their online graph footprints. In particular, the experimental results indicate that the graph-theoretic feature-oriented models achieve a substantial improvement of over 27% in line with the macro-average and micro-average area under the precision-recall curve, as compared to the conventional ones. In addition, the top five informative graph features for RTCDs are found to be Transitivity, Edge, Node, Degree and Reciprocity. In view of interpretability, the basic, single-, dyadic- and triadic-node and global characteristics of clickstream graphs have their specific advantages.

The findings suggest that the temporal graph-theoretic approach can form an efficient and powerful AI-based real-time intent detecting decision-support system. Different levels of graph features have their specific interpretability on RTCDs from the perspectives of consumer behavior and psychology, which provides a theoretical basis for the design of computer information systems and the optimization of the ongoing session intervention or recommendation in e-commerce.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to apply clickstream graphs and real-time decision choices in conversion prediction and detection. Most studies have only meditated on a binary classification problem, while this study applies a graph-theoretic approach in a five-class classification problem. In addition, this study constructs temporal item-level graphs to represent the original structure of clickstream session data based on graph theory. The time-varying characteristics of the proposed approach enhance the performance of purchase conversion detection during an ongoing session.

This study is to propose a more effective and efficient analytic methodology based on within-site clickstream associated with path visualization to explore the channel dependence of consumers' latent shopping intent and the related behaviors, with which in turn to gain insight concerning the interactivity between webpages.

The primary intention of the research is to design and develop a more effective and efficient approach for exploring the consumers' latent shopping intent and the related behaviors from the clickstream data. The proposed methodology is to use text-mining package, consisting of the combination of hierarchical recurrent neural networks and Hopfield-like neural network equipped with Laplacian-based graph visualization to visualize the consumers' browsing patterns. Based on the observed interactivity between webpages, consumers' latent shopping intent and the related behaviors can be understood.

The key finding is to evidence that consumers' latent shopping intent and related behaviors within website depend on channels the consumers click through. The accessing consumers through channels of paid search and display advertising are identified and categorized as goal-directed and exploratory modes, respectively. The results also indicate that the effect of the content of webpage on the consumer's purchase intent varies with channels. This implies that website optimization and attribution of online advertising should also be channel-dependent.

This is important for the managerial and theoretical implications: First, to uncover the channel dependence of consumer's latent shopping intent and browsing behaviors would be helpful to the attribution of the online advertising for the sales promotion. Second, in the past, webmasters did not understand users' preferences and make decisions of reorganization purely on the user's browsing path (sequential page view) without appraising psychological perspective, that is, user's latent shopping intent.

This study is the first to explore the channel dependences of consumer's latent shopping intent and the related browsing behaviors through within-site clickstream associated with path visualization. The findings are helpful to the attribution of the online advertising for the sales promotion and useful for webmasters to optimize the effectiveness and usability of their websites and in turn promote the purchase decision.

The headlines of online news are created carefully to influence audience news selection today. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between news headline presentation and users’ clicking behavior.

Two types of unobtrusive data were collected and analyzed jointly for this purpose. A two-month server log file containing 39,990,200 clickstream records was obtained from an institutional news site. A clickstream data analysis was conducted at the footprint and movement levels, which extracted 98,016 clicks received by 7,120 headlines ever displayed on the homepage. Meanwhile, the presentation of these headlines was characterized from seven dimensions, i.e. position, format, text length, use of numbers, use of punctuation marks, recency and popularity, based on the layout and content crawled from the homepage.

This study identified a series of presentation characteristics that prompted users to click on the headlines, including placing them in the central T-shaped zones, using images, increasing text length properly for greater clarity, using visually distinctive punctuation marks, and providing recency and popularity indicators.

The findings have valuable implications for news providers in attracting clicks to their headlines. Also, the successful application of nonreactive methods has significant implications for future user studies in both information science and journalism.

The objective of this paper is to propose a consumer-behavior-based intelligence (CBBI) model to identify market structure so as to monitor product competition. Competitive intelligence extracted from Chinese e-business clickstream data is exploited to examine the relevance of consumers' heterogeneous behavioral feedback, namely, click, tag-into-favorite, time-of-browsing, add-into-cart, and remove-from-cart, to visualize the competitive product market structure and to predict product-level sales.

Our proposed CBBI model consists of visualization and prediction, which explore e-business clickstream data. We conduct the visualization and segmentation of market structure in the form of a perceptual map by employing K-means clustering algorithm and multidimensional scaling technique. Concurrently, we developed an updated Bayesian linear regression (BLR) to predict product-level sales by considering consumers' heterogeneous feedback. Our updated BLR specifically integrated the estimated knowledge of the previous periods to verify whether product sales are period-dependent due to the consumer memory effect in e-commerce, improving the conventional BLR of diffuse prior distribution setup in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE).

Considering the performance of consumers' heterogeneous actions, the present research visualized three different segments of the competitive market structure in a perceptual map, and its horizontal axis is shown as a signal of the ascending trend of product sales. The previous five-day period was ascertained to be the best size of a time window for the consumer memory effect on product sales prediction. This hypothesis is supported by the concept that product sales are period-dependent. The results of the proposed updated BLR indicate that consumer tag-into-favorite, add-into-cart, and remove-from-cart feedback have positive impacts on product-level sales while click and time-of-browsing have the opposite effect.

While the identified competitive product market structure elaborates consumer heterogeneous feedback toward alternative product choices, this paper contributes by extending those homogeneous consumer preferences-related marketing studies. The perceptual map's configuration in respect to period-dependent product sales facilitates the effective inclusion of consumer behavior application in product sales prediction research in e-commerce. This paper helps sellers and retailers better comprehend the impacts of heterogeneous feedback and the consumer memory effect on the degree of competition in the form of product sales. The research results also offer a managerial implication about shaping the competitive edge by conducting different product management strategies in e-commerce platforms.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the core of an advanced destination management system, which uses a series of data matching techniques and business analytics.

This study first proposes the conceptual framework for an advanced destination management system and then illustrates the core components of the proposed system using real-world data from Northern Indiana. In this study, search interests, devices used and other forms of website use derived from online clickstream data were merged with visitor demographic and tripographic information obtained from an online survey to develop an analytic model used to describe the core market structure.

Key demographic factors (e.g. gender, age and income), search interests, referred websites, the number of total sessions, temporal aspects and spatial aspects of visitor travel provide essential information defining the structure and dynamics of the visitor marketing in Northern Indiana.

The process and data used in this study provide a “proof of concept” for developing highly personalized marketing systems, which can substantially improve the competitiveness of a destination management organization.

Online search effort is routinely measured by the duration of visit at the website as obtained from clicksream data or surveys. Measuring search effort by the time spent at a website assumes that all consumers who search for the same duration obtain the same amount of information. This would be acceptable if all consumers possessed the same navigational ability. In practice, different consumers have different levels of ability to navigate a website. The purpose of this study is to find whether an individual’s navigational ability has an influence on visit duration and purchase likelihood.

The authors use visit duration data from a real website which makes it possible to partition the visit duration into the times spent on relevant and irrelevant pages. The data were collected through an experimental study. The authors develop an empirical model, comprising hazard and choice models, to assess the relationship between navigational ability and elements of website usage.

A consumer with poor navigational ability spends more time searching on the Web and has lower purchase probability compared to a consumer with superior ability.

The study is limited to one data.

This research has managerial implications for website design, such as link-structure, appearance, size and the number of graphics.

This is the first study to research navigational ability’s influence on online consumer behavior.

Online purchases might be delayed. In some cases, this postponement could be a privileged, an adequate, or an efficient strategy. Online consumer procrastination is the voluntary and rational delay of a planned online purchase. The purpose of this research is to develop a measure of this behavior.

The Churchill's paradigm adapted by Roehrich was adopted. A total of 77 items were generated from 27 interviews. This set of items was reduced to 23 after dropping out redundant or not representative items. In a pilot study, factor analysis on the 23‐item scale yielded a two‐factor structure scale of five items with a reliability ranging from 0.715 to 0.809. The Online Consumer Procrastination Scale (OCPS) was statistically confirmed and validated, in a subsequent investigation.

Findings revealed a reliable and valid five‐item scale. Its dimensions are online deal‐proneness and online rationality.

This research allows a better conceptualization of the online consumer procrastination. Future research should assess the OCPS validity across different product categories.

OCPS will make easier the recognition of e‐shoppers who delay the achievement of online purchase intentions.

OCPS is the first scale measuring the reasonable delay in an online purchase context.

This paper aims to investigate the temporal dynamics of users browsing activity on a hotel website in order to derive effective marketing strategies and constantly improve website effectiveness. Users' activities on the hotel's website on yearly, monthly, daily and hourly basis are examined and compared, demonstrating the power of informatics and data analytics.

A total of 29,976 hourly Weblog files from 1 August 2014 to 31 December 2017 were collected from a luxury hotel in Hong Kong. ANOVA and post-hoc comparisons were used to analyse the data.

Users' browsing behaviours, particularly stickiness, on the hotel website differ on yearly, monthly, daily and weekly bases. Users' activities increased steadily from 2014 to 2016, but dropped in 2017. Users are most active from July to September, on weekdays, and from noon to evening time. The month-, day-, and hour-based behaviours changed through years. The analysis of big data determines strategic and operational management and marketing decision-making.

Understanding the usage patterns of their websites allow organisations to make a range of strategic, marketing, pricing and distribution decisions to optimise their performance. Fluctuation of website usage and level of customer engagement have implications on customer support and services, as well as strategic partnership decisions.

Leveraging the power of big data analytics, this paper adds to the existing literature by performing a comprehensive analysis on the temporal dynamics of users' online browsing behaviours.