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The purpose is to forecasting carbon emissions from China's civil aviation more accurately, a novel fractional multivariate GM(1,N) model with interaction effects is developed in this paper.

First, the interaction term, the trend terms are introduced in the grey action term to reflect the influence of the interaction between the system-related variables on the change of the system characteristic variables and the time trend of the system development. Then fractional cumulative generating sequence is used as the modeling sequence to reduce the perturbation of the original data. Finally, in order to effectively find the optimal fraction accumulation generation coefficient, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the emerging coefficient.

Experimental results show that FIEGM(1, N) outperforms other grey prediction models in predicting the carbon emissions of CAAC, which can better solve the problem of multivariate system prediction of small samples with trend interaction effect.

By considering the influence of interactions in the system and the trend of system development in combination with fractional accumulation theory, a new method to improve the prediction performance of the GM(1, N) model is proposed. The model is first applied to the prediction of carbon emission of civil aviation in China.

This chapter considers the application of climate mitigation policies to the aviation sector with reference to the inclusion of aviation in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Assessments of the possible economic impacts of including aviation in the EU ETS are reviewed and an impact analysis using the macroeconometric E3ME model is conducted.

The aviation sector is a significant and rapidly increasing source of GHG emissions. Because international policy measures have not been agreed, the EU has incorporated aviation in the EU ETS. It is therefore important to consider the possible economic effects of the ETS on the aviation industry and the wider economy.

The paper describes the approach used by the EU to include aviation in the EU ETS. Assessments of economic impacts have been made, but have often been limited in their approach. The paper complements the existing literature by including an economic analysis using the E3ME macroeconometric model of the EU that covers 41 industrial sectors including aviation.

Microeconomic and macroeconomic assessments show the economic impacts of including the aviation sector in the EU ETS are small. The negative impacts, if any, on EU GDP and the air transport sector’s economic output are less than 0.1% and 1% respectively. Distortions in competition, both between countries and industrial sectors, are therefore likely to be small.

In the long term (beyond 2020), including aviation in the EU can be seen as a positive move. If and when aviation is fully included in the EU ETS, and when the cost impacts of GHG emissions through permit prices are made evident, it is anticipated that airlines will start monitoring and reducing their GHG emissions by investing in new, less carbon intensive technologies.

Aviation is not only one of the key contributors to the economy and social structure of the world but it is also an industry whose environmental impacts are being closely monitored. Aircraft efficiency and technological advancements have significantly reduced aviation noise and emissions in recent decades. Nevertheless, as the need for passenger and freight transportation grows, the aviation sector is becoming a primary source of environmental issues and a significant driver of global warming. This chapter focusses on environmentally sustainable aviation with a net-zero emission target. It also highlights sustainable aviation policies and collaborative initiatives in the aviation industry to meet the 2050 net-zero emission goal. While the industry's efforts have increased opportunities recently, the industry has also had to face several challenges to achieve the net-zero aviation target.

This chapter provides an overview of the current political regulations on aviation’s climate relevant emissions in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand and of the planned regulations in other parts of the world. In a next step, the cost impacts of most of these regulations on air freight will be quantified. This way, the economic impacts of environmental regulations on air freight can be estimated.

The main results indicate that cost impacts on air freight services induced by political measures for the reduction of aviation’s climate relevant emissions turn out to be small. This is true for both local emission charges on nitrous oxide (NO _X ) and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions which are in force at a number of European airports and the European emissions trading scheme for the limitation of CO₂ emissions.

Despite the high profile of climate change rhetoric and the carbon intensive nature of flying, policies for controlling CO₂ from aviation remain at odds with global commitments on climate change. Taking a carbon budgeting approach to compare future aviation scenarios with the scale of necessary emission reductions demonstrates the extent of this contradiction. The significant potential for ongoing aviation growth contrasts with the need to curb substantially global CO₂ emissions across all sectors. For even a 50:50 chance of staying within the 2°C threshold, emission pathways imply around a 75% cut in absolute emissions by 2050 (from 1990 levels). Set against this, aviation’s CO₂ emissions are expected to grow by between 170% and 480% over the same period, and they could feasibly be higher still.

For the international community to be serious about its climate change commitments, moral and ethical concerns need to be considered alongside technical and economic issues. It is timely to question whether expansion of an industry with few technological options for decarbonisation is a reasonable way to gamble with our future.

European air transport policy, emerged through the confluence of case law and legislation, in four broad areas: liberalization, safety and security, greening, and the external policy. Following the implementation of the single market for air transport, policy shifted to liberalizing and regulating associated services and in recent years to greening, the external aviation policy, and safety and security. Inclusion of air transport in the Environmental Trading Scheme of the European Union exemplifies the European Commission’s proactive stand on bringing the industry in line with emission reduction trajectories of other industries. However, the bid to include flights to third countries in the trading scheme pushed the EU into a controversial position, causing the Commission to halt implementation and to give ICAO time to seek a global multilateral agreement. The chapter also discusses how the nationality clauses in air services agreements breached the Treaty of Rome, and a court ruling to that effect enabled the EC to extend EU liberalization policies beyond the European Union, resulting in the Common Aviation Area with EU fringe countries and the Open Aviation Area with the USA. Another important area of progress was aviation safety, where the EU region is unsurpassed in the world, yet the Commission has pushed the boundary even further, by establishing the European Safety Agency to oversee the European Aviation Safety Management System. Another important area of regulatory development was aviation security, a major focus after the woeful events in 2001, but increasingly under industry scrutiny on costs and effectiveness. The chapter concludes by arguing that in the coming decade, the EU will strive to strengthen its position as a global countervailing power, symbolized in air transport by a leadership position in environmental policy and international market liberalization, exemplified in the EU’s external aviation policy.

The world society as a whole and Ukraine are realizing that climate change and decarbonization are critical issues. This study aims to determine whether the aviation and transportation industries in Ukraine have rearranged their priorities as a result of this investigation. The process of decarbonization and adaptation begins with a legislative point of view and then moves on to technology, improvements, infrastructure, energy and emissions stages to meet the primary goals.

An analysis of the content of the literature about decarbonization and the legislation and application processes for airport de-carbonization in Ukraine. The study focuses on the landing and take-off cycle of the airports. The statistics on the transportation of the Ukrainian territory have been looked at over time to determine whether or not there have been any shifts.

There are significant reduction figures found in the Poltava region. Double-figure emissions reductions in four years of series are 5.9%, 41.0% and 19.3%, in the respective years of 2018, 2019 and 2020, which is a 55.3% reduction compared with 2020 to 2017.

Because the transportation industry and aviation generate a significant amount of carbon dioxide, steps must be taken to cut emissions. The decarbonization process ought to proceed in the form of a series of actions to achieve carbon reduction goals with a broader range of participants. In addition, an aviation subsidy for biofuels may be required to initiate the shift by having the taxation change.

As far as the literature surveys, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comprehensive Ukrainian decarbonization analysis that considers legislation, technology, improvements, infrastructure, energy and emissions in addition to just those four categories.

This chapter examines the torsions and blind spots that structure the contemporary debate on the politics and policy of aviation. It also generates different scenarios for the future of air travel, which can help to unblock the current impasse about the perceived costs and benefits of aviation and its attendant infrastructural needs.

This chapter characterises and evaluates the competing frames that organise the contested realities of air transport. By mapping out the current fault lines of aviation politics and policy, the chapter is also able to delineate four main scenarios regarding the future of aviation, which we name the ‘post-carbon’, ‘high-modernist’, ‘market regulation’ and ‘demand management’ projections respectively.

The chapter problematises and criticises the existing literature, policy reports and stakeholder briefings that inform the contemporary standoff in UK aviation policy. It uses the definition of sustainable development as a heuristic device to map and identify the fault lines structuring contemporary debates on aviation futures. It then builds upon this analysis to delimit four different scenarios for the future of flying.

The chapter analyses the contested realities of aviation politics. It re-affirms the political nature of such divisions, which in turn structure the rival understandings of aviation. The analysis suggests that the identified fault lines are constantly reiterated by competing appeals to ambiguous and contradictory evidence-bases or policy frames. Ultimately, the chapter claims that any significant reframing of aviation policy and politics rests on the outcome of political negotiations and persuasion. But it also depends on the broader views of citizens and stakeholders about the future challenges facing society, as well as the way in which governments and affected agents put in place and coordinate the multiple arenas in which a dialogue over the future of aviation can be held. Aviation futures cannot be reduced to the narrow confines of the technical merits or claims surrounding the feasibility of policy instruments.

In this chapter, we support that pricing carbon emissions policies in aviation might have a lower than expected impact on aviation activity, if such policies are accompanied by investments in environmental technology and an adequate communication strategy by the airlines, which eliminates information asymmetries. Furthermore, we suggest that firms' environmental strategies might be an important advantage in competition. Using orthogonal design techniques, we developed a binary choice experiment, in which carbon emissions are presented to 338 German respondents among other choice-related attributes. Estimating several binary logit models, we are in a position to compute the air travelers' willingness to pay (WTP) for carbon emissions reductions. Findings suggest that passengers consider carbon emissions in their individual airline (itinerary) choice decision, if they receive the corresponding information. We also show that the passengers' WTP for carbon emissions reductions is in line with recent estimates on marginal damage cost. Furthermore, we find that WTP increases for passengers with high environmental sensitivity, whereas it decreases for frequent flyers. Investments in environmental technology and airline commitment for environmental-related firm policy positively influence the passengers' choices. It appears that the average passenger is more sensitive to environmental issues and is willing to pay more for environmental protection than industry officials or policymakers presume.