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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 January 2022

Sunay Çıralı

The main purpose of the research is to determine if the relationship between trading volume and price changes is connected to market effectiveness and to use the volume-price…

1485

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of the research is to determine if the relationship between trading volume and price changes is connected to market effectiveness and to use the volume-price relationship to compare the efficiency levels of foreign markets. The degree of the relationship is determined in this study, and the efficiency levels of different countries' capital markets are compared.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, 1,024 observations are used as a data set, which includes daily closing prices and trading volume in the stock market indices of 25 countries between the dates of 01.12.2016 and 31.12.2020. In the first step of the analysis, descriptive statistics of price and volume series are examined. The stationarity of the series is then controlled using the ADF unit root test. Simple linear regression models with the dependent variable of trading volume are generated for all stock market indices after each series has reached stationarity, and the ARCH heteroscedasticity test is used to determine whether these models contain the ARCH effect. Because all models have the ARCH effect, autoregressive models are chosen, and EGARCH models are conducted for all indices to see whether there is an asymmetry in the price-volume relationship.

Findings

The study concludes that the stock market in the United States is the most effective, since it has the strongest relationship between trading volume and price changes. However, because of the financial distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between price and trading volume is lower in Eurozone countries. The price-volume relationship could not be observed in some shallow markets. Furthermore, whereas the majority of countries have a negative relationship between price changes and transaction volume, China, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have a positive relationship. When prices rise in these countries, investors buy with the sense of hope provided by the optimistic atmosphere, and when prices fall, they sell with the fear of losing money.

Research limitations/implications

The study's most significant limitation is that it is difficult to ascertain a definitive conclusion about the subject under investigation. In reality, if the same research is done using data from different countries and time periods, the results are quite likely to vary.

Practical implications

As a result of the study, investors can decide which market to enter by comparing and analyzing the price-volume relationship of several markets. According to the study's findings, investors are advised to examine the price-volume relationship in a market before beginning to trade in that market. In this way, investors can understand the market's efficiency and whether it is overpriced.

Social implications

The relationship between price movements and trade volume gives crucial information about a capital market's internal structure. Some concerns can be answered by assessing this relationship, such as whether the market has a speculative pricing problem, how information flows to the market, and whether investment decisions are rational and homogenous. Empirical studies on modeling this relationship, on the other hand, have not reached a definite outcome. The main reason for this is that the price-to-volume relationship fluctuates depending on the market structure. The purpose of this study is to fill a gap in the literature by presenting the reasons why this critical issue in the literature cannot be answered, as well as empirical findings.

Originality/value

The significance and originality of this research are that it examines the price-volume relationship to evaluate the efficiency levels of various markets. This relationship is being investigated in a number of multinational studies. These researches, on the other hand, were conducted to see if there is a relationship between trading volume and market volatility, and if so, how that interaction is formed. The size of the price and volume relationship is emphasized in this study, unlike previous studies in the literature.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 June 2021

Woosung Jung and Mhin Kang

This study aims to analyze the effect of change in trading volume on the short-term mean reversion of the stock price in the Korean stock market. Through the variance ratio test…

4003

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of change in trading volume on the short-term mean reversion of the stock price in the Korean stock market. Through the variance ratio test, this paper finds that the market shows the mean reversion pattern after 2000, but not before. This study also confirms that the mean reversion property is significantly reduced if the effect of change in trading volume is excluded from the return of a stock with a significant contemporaneous correlation between return and change in trading volume in the post-2000 market. The results appear in both the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotation. This phenomenon stems from the significance of the return response to change in trading volume per se and not the sign of the response. Additionally, the findings imply that the trading volume has a term structure because of the mean reversion of the trading volume and the return also has a partial term structure because of the contemporaneous correlation between return and change in trading volume. This conclusion suggests that considering the short-term impact of change in trading volume enables a more efficient observation of the market and avoidance of asset misallocation.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Joseph Kopecky

This paper explores the empirical relationship between population age structure and bilateral trade.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper explores the empirical relationship between population age structure and bilateral trade.

Design/methodology/approach

The author includes age structure in both log and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) formulations of the gravity equation of trade. The author studies relative age effects, using differences in the demographic structure of each country-pair.

Findings

The author finds that a relatively larger share of population in working age increases bilateral exports. This is robust to various estimation models, as well as to changes in the method of specifying the demographic controls. Old-age shares have a negative, but less robustly estimated impact on trade. Estimating instead the balance of trade between trading partners produces similar results, with positive effects of age structure peaking later in working life.

Practical implications

Global populations are poised to undergo a massive transition. Trade a crucial way that the demographic deficits of one country may be offset by the dividends of another as comparative advantages shift along with the size and strength of their underlying workforce.

Originality/value

The author’s work is among the first to quantify the effect of relative age structure between two countries and their bilateral trade flows. Focusing on the aggregate flows, relative age shares and PPML estimates of the trade relationship, this paper provides the most comprehensive picture to date on how age structure affects trade.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 November 2022

Dengke Chen

Trade and environment are essential issues closely related to the development of the national economy and the improvement of people’s livelihood in the new era. The Report to the…

Abstract

Purpose

Trade and environment are essential issues closely related to the development of the national economy and the improvement of people’s livelihood in the new era. The Report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) listed the construction of a strong trading power as an important part of building a modern economic system and pollution prevention and treatment as one of the three key battles to win the decisive victory of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. However, the relationship between trade and environmental pollution is still very controversial in the existing literature, and there is a paucity of literature on the relationship between trade and environmental pollution based on micro data.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper merged China’s Firm-Level Pollution Database with China’s Industrial Enterprise Database and China’s industry tariff rates. Additionally, by virtue of the quasi-natural experiment of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), a difference in difference (DID) model was constructed to alleviate the endogeneity issue.

Findings

According to the results, the trade barrier decrease (trade liberalization) significantly reduces the intensity of SO2 emissions, a major pollutant of enterprises, as the intensity of SO2 emissions decreased 2.16% for each unit decrease of the trade barrier. The analysis of the mechanisms shows that the SO2 emission intensity of enterprises is mainly due to the decrease of enterprises’ pollution emission rather than the decrease of output, and the decrease of enterprises’ pollution emission is mainly caused by the enterprises’ cleaner production process rather than the end treatment of pollution emission. The decrease of coal use intensity is an important mechanism of the decrease of SO2 emission intensity caused by the decrease of trade barriers. Among the technical effects of the change of the trade barrier affecting enterprises’ pollution emission, biased technical change rather than neutral technical change dominates.

Originality/value

The findings of this paper imply that expanding openness can enhance China’s social welfare not only through the economic growth mechanisms identified in the classical literature, but also through environmental improvements. This provides useful policy insights for promoting the construction of a strong trading power and winning the battle against pollution in the new era.

Details

China Political Economy, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2516-1652

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 May 2023

Dhyani Mehta and M. Mallikarjun

This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin…

1816

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

Autoregressive distributed lagARDL) bound test approach was used by taking annual time series data from 1978 to 2021. The estimates confirm a significant long-run and short-run relationship between dependent variables, i.e. CAD and independent variables such as the fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness.

Findings

The results show that positive shocks of all explanatory variables significantly affect the CAD. CAD and fiscal deficit are significantly associated, as the coefficient of fiscal deficit is positive and significant. The study also found that exchange rate and trade openness significantly affect the CAD. The coefficients of exchange rate and trade openness are positive and significant. The findings show that an increase in CADs results from liberal trade policies that help domestic industries grow their trade and expansionary fiscal policy, leading to a higher fiscal deficit. The negative and significant error correction term suggests that short-run disequilibrium converges to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 19.2%. The findings validate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.

Practical implications

It can be inferred from the study that liberal policy to promote economic growth and trade openness should be designed and promoted judiciously. An excessive liberalised approach may impact other macroeconomic variables such as current account balances. Integrating the domestic market with global markets poses a big challenge for countries like India that aspire to penetrate global markets. Furthermore, the Indian policy makers should rigorously work and promote the policies such as Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) as reduction in fiscal deficits, trade imbalances will also be reduced.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature on ‘twin deficit’ and trade openness by giving new evidence on the trilemma between designing sustainable fiscal policy by spending wisely without imperilling the country's global presence and CAD.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 June 2021

Sohail Amjed and Iqtidar Ali Shah

The purpose of this study is to investigate long-run and short-run relationships between trade diversification, financial system development, capital formation and economic growth.

2244

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate long-run and short-run relationships between trade diversification, financial system development, capital formation and economic growth.

Design/methodology/approach

ARDL estimation approach is applied to analyze long-run and short-run relationships between the financial system development, capital formation, economic growth and trade diversification in case of the Sultanate of Oman over the period 39 years starting from 1979 till 2017.

Findings

The results show that financial system development and economic growth has a positive impact on trade diversification in the short-run and long-run. However, capital formation has a negative impact on trade diversification in the short run and long run. The negative relationship between trade diversification and capital formation implies that over the period of study, the investment in capital goods was made to enhance the production capacity of the oil sector to maximize revenue.

Research limitations/implications

This research is limited to analyze long-run and short-run relationship between the financial system development, capital formation and economic growth and trade diversification in case of Sultanate of Oman.

Practical implications

To achieve the diversification goal, the policymakers need to formulate policies to strengthen the financial system and invest in infrastructure development to promote the non-oil sector. The research findings of this study will provide insights to the policymakers to formulate an effective diversification policy.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence of the short-run and long-run analysis of the selected variables in the context of an oil-dependent country.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 December 2023

Ingo Pies and Vladislav Valentinov

Stakeholder theory understands business in terms of relationships among stakeholders whose interests are mainly joint but may be occasionally conflicting. In the latter case…

Abstract

Purpose

Stakeholder theory understands business in terms of relationships among stakeholders whose interests are mainly joint but may be occasionally conflicting. In the latter case, managers may need to make trade-offs between these interests. The purpose of this paper is to explore the nature of managerial decision-making about these trade-offs.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper draws on the ordonomic approach which sees business life to be rife with social dilemmas and locates the role of stakeholders in harnessing or resolving these dilemmas through engagement in rule-finding and rule-setting processes.

Findings

The ordonomic approach suggests that stakeholder interests trade-offs ought to be neither ignored nor avoided, but rather embraced and welcomed as an opportunity for bringing to fruition the joint interest of stakeholders in playing a better game of business. Stakeholders are shown to bear responsibility for overcoming the perceived trade-offs through the institutional management of social dilemmas.

Originality/value

For many stakeholder theorists, the nature of managerial decision-making about trade-offs between conflicting stakeholder interests and the nature of trade-offs themselves have been a long-standing point of contention. The paper shows that trade-offs may be useful for the value creation process and explicitly discusses managerial strategies for dealing with them.

Details

Social Responsibility Journal, vol. 20 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1747-1117

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 November 2023

Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, Iwona Piekunko-Mantiuk and Scott W. Hegerty

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s…

Abstract

Purpose

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants.

Design/methodology/approach

Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated.

Findings

One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors.

Research limitations/implications

This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects.

Originality/value

An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 August 2022

Tanjina Akther, Liton Chandra Voumik and Md. Hasanur Rahman

Research based on Bangladesh–US trade data examines the Heckscher–Ohlin model and the Rybczynski hypothesis in this study.

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Abstract

Purpose

Research based on Bangladesh–US trade data examines the Heckscher–Ohlin model and the Rybczynski hypothesis in this study.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square (OLS) techniques are used in this study, which relies on data from the NBER International Trade and Geography Data and the UN Comtrade Database for the years 2018 and 2008.

Findings

The research shows that trade between the United States and Bangladesh follows Heckscher–Ohlin and Rybcyzinski's trade predictions. According to the study, since labor is in plentiful supply in Bangladesh, Bangladesh's labor-based sectors have a higher US labor-to-capital import shares than US capital-based industries. As Bangladesh has not changed significantly from a labor-based country since 2008, it retains the same pattern even though the share of US unskilled labor-based sectors imported from Bangladesh decreased in 2018.

Originality/value

The findings of this study have a wide range of implications for both trade theory and policy debates between Bangladesh and the United States.

Details

Modern Supply Chain Research and Applications, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2631-3871

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 November 2020

Aparna Sajeev and Simrit Kaur

Based on the hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between environmental pollutants (as measured by CO2

6505

Abstract

Purpose

Based on the hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between environmental pollutants (as measured by CO2 emissions) and GDP for India, over the period 1980–2012. The presence of an inverted “U” shape relationship is examined while controlling for factors such as the degree of trade openness, foreign direct investment, oil prices, the legal system and industrialization.

Design/methodology/approach

To verify whether the EKC follows a linear, quadratic or polynomial form, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration with structural breaks is adopted. The annual time series data for carbon emissions (CO2), economic growth (GDP), industrial development (industrialization), foreign direct investment and trade openness have been obtained from World Development Indicators online database. Crude oil price (international price index) for the period is collected from the International Monetary Fund. Data for total petroleum consumption are collected from the US Energy Information Agency. Data for economic freedom variables are from the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom Index's online database.

Findings

The findings support the existence of inverted U-shaped EKC in the short-run, but not in the long-run. A linear monotonic relationship has also been estimated in select model specifications. Additionally, trade openness has been estimated to reduce emissions in models, which incorporate FDI. Else, where significant, its impact on carbon emissions is adverse. A rise in fuel price leads to reduction in carbon emissions across model specifications. Further, the lower size of government degrades the environment both in the long-run and short-run.

Practical implications

Given the existence of the pollution haven hypothesis, wherein more trade and foreign direct investments cause environmental degradation, the paper proposes formulation of appropriate regulatory mechanisms that are environmentally friendly. Additionally, India's new economic policies, favoring liberalization, privatization and globalization, reinforces the need to strengthen environmental regulations.

Originality/value

Incorporation of economic freedom as measured by the “Size of Government” in the EKC model is unique. “Size of Government” deserves a special mention. The rationale for including this explanatory variable is to understand whether countries with lower government size are more polluting. After all, theory does suggest that goods and services, which have higher social cost vis-à-vis private cost, shall be overproduced in economies that adopt more market-friendly policies, necessitating government intervention. In the study, size of government is measured as per the definition and methodology adopted by Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of the World Index.

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