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This study examines the empirical performance of emission allowance option pricing models, concentrating on the EU-ETS markets. For option pricing, we use parameters estimated from option market data whereas few papers in the extant literature use parameters from underlying asset data. As results, it is shown that the most appropriate is the one-factor model in which the EUA logarithmic spot prices follow the mean-reverting process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. Also, the addition of jumps is not shown to make any significant improvement in the model performance. These results are quite striking in the sense that existing papers report the addition of jumps is necessary to improve option pricing on the EU-ETS markets. In sum, this paper is meaningful in the sense that it extends the growing empirical literature on the behavior of emission allowance spot prices

This study develops the economic rationale for the inclusion of new environmental financial assets, tradable pollution rights, in a well‐diversified portfolio. These new assets are generated and their valuation determined in the market‐incentive environmental regulatory approach called emissions trading, especially the cap‐and‐trade variant. This approach has been gaining wide acceptance and approval. A leading example is the sulfur dioxide market where tradable allowances are assets that may be held by private investors. Transactions in this market have reached volumes indicative of a high degree of liquidity. Comparable tradable rights in other pollutants are under active development. We explain the design and workings of these markets and demonstrate empirically, on the basis of time series data, that sulfur dioxide allowances have rates of return and yield distributions that make them candidates for inclusion in asset portfolios. We conjecture that other tradable pollution rights will exhibit similar properties when sufficient data are available. Financial analysts and accountants are likely to play an increasing role in advising investors about the role of these assets in a well‐diversified portfolio.

This chapter considers the application of climate mitigation policies to the aviation sector with reference to the inclusion of aviation in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Assessments of the possible economic impacts of including aviation in the EU ETS are reviewed and an impact analysis using the macroeconometric E3ME model is conducted.

The aviation sector is a significant and rapidly increasing source of GHG emissions. Because international policy measures have not been agreed, the EU has incorporated aviation in the EU ETS. It is therefore important to consider the possible economic effects of the ETS on the aviation industry and the wider economy.

The paper describes the approach used by the EU to include aviation in the EU ETS. Assessments of economic impacts have been made, but have often been limited in their approach. The paper complements the existing literature by including an economic analysis using the E3ME macroeconometric model of the EU that covers 41 industrial sectors including aviation.

Microeconomic and macroeconomic assessments show the economic impacts of including the aviation sector in the EU ETS are small. The negative impacts, if any, on EU GDP and the air transport sector’s economic output are less than 0.1% and 1% respectively. Distortions in competition, both between countries and industrial sectors, are therefore likely to be small.

In the long term (beyond 2020), including aviation in the EU can be seen as a positive move. If and when aviation is fully included in the EU ETS, and when the cost impacts of GHG emissions through permit prices are made evident, it is anticipated that airlines will start monitoring and reducing their GHG emissions by investing in new, less carbon intensive technologies.

Under the Kyoto protocol, emissions trading was imposed upon the Nordic Nord Pool Spot market in 2005. The purpose of this paper is to identify and characterize an important side‐effect of emissions trading on electricity spot market price behavior by statistically comparing price behavior before and after emissions trading was introduced.

The analysis is based on an analysis of the skill of regression models in explaining price behavior before and after 2005.

It turns out that regression models based on background variables such as temperature, water reservoir levels, and even the price of emission rights themselves lose much of their skill from 2005 onwards. The histogram of the residual time series of an optimally calibrated regression model demonstrates a considerably more “fat‐tailed” behavior after 2005, with a much higher volatility and reduced amenability for regression by background variables.

The results point to an increased medium‐ and long‐term uncertainty in the Nordic electricity spot market, brought about by emissions trading as an unintended side‐effect. It seems emissions trading has introduced a stronger “psychological” component into price behavior, increasing its volatility and making it prone to more frequent price spikes. This has made the electricity market more difficult for market managers and regulators to manage.

The paper presents the first statistical attempt to quantify the way electricity spot price dynamics have changed in Europe after starting the Emissions Trading Scheme based on the Kyoto protocol.

This paper seeks to analyze stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO₂ emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009.

The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO₂ allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relationships.

Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or a positive forward premium. A positive relationship between risk premium and time-to-maturity is found. Both financial concepts are found to be negatively affected by spot price volatility. Convenience yield is positively influenced by CO₂ price, while influencing the risk premium positively.

From a financial perspective, allowances seem to be producing the desired effects in terms of environmental policies, although a lot more remains to be done. The presence of risk premium and convenience yield makes it clear that agents act in this commodity market according to risk consideration. Results change depending on phase and futures contracts used for the determination of both financial terms, indicating that uncertainties over the future of EU-ETS seem to be decreasing.

Previous research has mainly focused on the first phase of the EU-ETS (2005-2007), whereas this paper extends the analysis period here. The paper finds some opposite results compared with previous commodities theories and designs some policy implications, given the results attained.

Purpose – This study constitutes a first attempt to experimentally test the performance of a 100% auction versus a 100% free allocation of CO2 permits under the rules and parameters that mimic the EU ETS (imperfect competition, uncertainty in emissions' control, and allowing banking), with environmental targets more restrictive than the current ones but foreseeable for the near future.

Methodology/approach – Two experimental treatments were run to achieve our goal. Both included the rules and the parameters that parallel the EU ETS structure, the only difference being the rule for the primary allocation of permits.

Findings – Our experimental results indicate that the EU ETS has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions, achieving targets considerably more restrictive than the current ones at high efficiency levels, both with auctioned and free emission permits.

Practical implications – Concerns about undue scarcity, and corresponding high prices, in secondary markets generated by a primary auction market are not warranted under the proposed dynamic auction format. This adds arguments favoring auctioning over grandfathering as the rule for the initial allocation of emission permits in the EU ETS.

Originality/value of chapter – This study implements a theoretically appropriate auction format for the primary allocation of emission permits (the Ausubel (2004) auction) and incorporates a first attempt to include in the analysis measures of the risk preferences of subjects participating in emission permits experiments. These characteristics are for the first time implemented under a complex experimental design (including uncertainty of emission abatement, and banking), trying to parallel the EU ETS trading environment.

This chapter assesses the economic impact of geared turbofan (GTF) engines on the London Heathrow Airport (LHR)–Frankfurt Airport (FRA) route using cost–benefit analysis (CBA). An aircraft appraisal model is created to answer the two key questions of whether the A320neos aircraft with GTF engines could replace the conventional A320 aircraft through an operating lease (acquisition) or whether it would be better for society if the LHR–FRA sector is operated with a leased 737-800 aircraft. The scope of the CBA analysis is from 2015 until 2027.

The outcomes of the aircraft appraisal model indicate that switching to A320neos on lease (Option 2) might be beneficial. The fuel consumption of the A320neo aircraft is lower than that of the current A320-200 aircraft (2,234 kg vs 2,988 kg per sector). As a result, this option could offer a large benefit (NPV of USD 31 million) through lower fuel consumption and thus lower fuel costs. At the same time, a fuel reduction means a lower emissions impact (about USD 2 million benefit). It can be concluded that keeping the current A320-200 (NPV of USD 8.9 million) is less profitable than replacing it with a leased A320neo (NPV of USD 31 million) for Airline A, but better than a B737-800 (NPV USD 4.3 million). The option to lease the A320neos appears to be preferred in most cases, considering the impact of noise and NO_x cost, due to the large benefit of NPV USD 25 million compared to the A320 and an approximately 29 million difference compared with the B737-800.

This study aims to create the causal relationship between transportation behavior to Karimunjawa, the number of tourists and the amount of CO2 produced; calculate the reduction of CO2 emissions from the transportation to Karimunjawa based on several proposed policy scenarios; and formulate the managerial implication and recommendation to support the implementation of several proposed policy scenarios.

This study develops a system dynamics‐based model by using three sub-systems, i.e. “the number of tourist sub-system,” “the switching behavior of tourist travel sub-system” and “the CO2 emission sub-system.”

The simulation results have shown that, under the current situation, tourist travel behavior should be changed to maximum condition to get the minimum CO2 emission. Improvement of the behavior of tourist in selecting the mode of transportation and the departure point of mini-tour bus and ferry are an effective way to reduce the CO2 emission.

This study only considers limited variables as the driver of the level of change of the capacity of Karimunjawa and the road as well as the variables as the driver of tourism growth. This study only focuses on CO2 emission from the direct impacts of tourist travel; this study does not consider the indirect impact of tourism activity on CO2 emissions. International air travel is not included in the present study.

From a managerial perspective, this study demonstrates that change in the tourist travel behavior is generally not effective in triggering CO2 emission reduction, unless it is accompanied by the strict restriction policy related to the tourist route.

This study has the potential to raise societal awareness that the causality of tourist growth and CO2 emissions should be seen as the impact of tourist travel behavior. In this case, to modify the travel behavior, tourist needs to change their mode of transportation to more sustainable transportation.

This paper intends to fill the literature gap of the effect of tourism growth from two perspectives, namely, tourist travel behavior and environmental. The modeling of tourist transport and CO2 emission will provide an overview of the selection of the problem-solving mode for tourist transport that can give a significant contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions reduction to the environmental.

Under the Kyoto Protocol Ireland is committed to ensuring that its greenhouse gas emission levels are at or below 113 per cent of 1990 levels for the years 2008–2012. Irish emissions have already exceeded this limit by approximately 10 to 15 per cent and must be reduced if the Kyoto Protocol targets are to be met. In this context, and drawing on relevant theory and research, this paper discusses the rationale for, and the potential impact of, government intervention in the market for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The use of a Carbon Tax as a policy tool in reducing CO2 emissions is examined from both economic and taxation perspectives. Particular attention is paid to the Irish National Climate Change Strategy formulated in 2000 and the consultation process on implementing a Carbon Tax initiated by the Department of Finance in 2003. In September 2004 the Irish Government decided not to implement the proposed Carbon Tax. Submissions from interested parties on the carbon tax consultation process are reviewed against the rationale for implementation of such a tax. The body of evidence presented in this paper supports the implementation of a Carbon Tax—suggesting that the decision not to implement such a tax may have been a lost opportunity. The paper argues that a well‐designed Carbon Tax for Ireland, a simple levy on a close proxy for emissions, would be effective in influencing taxpayer behaviour bringing about a reduction in Ireland's CO2 emissions and supporting the polluter pays principle. In the absence of a carbon tax Ireland's Kyoto target is unlikely to be met and the consequent financial penalties will fall on all taxpayers. The paper concludes that the Irish Government should revisit this decision.

Logistics as a sector has a key role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and in reducing the dependency of our economy on non-renewable energy sources. The challenges are enormous: by 2050 the sector needs to have achieved about 50% lower fossil fuel use and CO₂ emissions. If freight volumes grow according to expectations, this requires over 70% less CO₂ emissions per unit of transport. This chapter explores the options for reducing CO₂ emissions from freight transport and their reduction potential, and analyses whether the logistic sector would be likely to achieve the required reduction based on its intrinsic drive for cost reduction alone.

In this conceptual chapter we identify options for sustainable logistics and discuss the necessary economic conditions for their deployment using a simple cost/benefit analysis framework. We distinguish between three regimes of measures for improving sustainability: efficiency measures with net negative costs (‘low hanging fruit’), cost-neutral measures and measures that allow to reach societal targets at net positive costs. Policy measures are discussed that may help the sector to implement cost-effective greenhouse gas abatement measures that, in the absence of incentives, go beyond the point of lowest cost from an end user perspective.

Sufficient energy saving options are available to be implemented in the short to medium term, which can lead to operational cost savings with a short return on investments period. The potential contribution of the logistics sector to sustainability is larger, however, as logistics can make large steps ahead in sustainability with cost neutrality or with small cost increases. The full potential has been underrated by many stakeholders and should be explored further.

Efficiency measures are a necessary but insufficient condition for sustainable logistics. The industry will need to go beyond cost saving measures, or even cost-neutral measures to reach the long-term energy saving and emission reduction targets for freight transport. We provide a systematic presentation of these options and discuss the additional necessary measures.