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1 – 10 of 565Luz Centeno Stenberg and Mahinda Siriwardana
The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling to deforestation and forestry issues.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis is carried out by comparing different CGE models available in the literature, which have analysed the economic consequences of deforestation and changes in forestry policies.
Findings
The use of CGE models in analysing forestry issues is still in its early stages. There is room for innovation and improvement in the various models used.
Practical implications
The paper emphasises the relevance of general equilibrium analysis in the evaluation of both micro‐ and macro‐economic policies on forestry. It encourages researchers to use general equilibrium analysis in their study of environmental problems.
Originality/value
The paper highlights the contribution and possible benefits of utilising CGE models in analysing environmental problems such as deforestation, especially in the context of environment‐economics trade‐off.
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Taoyuan Wei and Asbjørn Aaheim
This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.
Design/methodology/approach
A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus.
Findings
Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America.
Research limitations/implications
The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature.
Originality/value
The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.
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Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…
Abstract
Purpose
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.
Findings
The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.
Practical implications
As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.
Originality/value
The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.
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Xiandong Tan, Zhaoguang Hu, Baoguo Shan and Meng Li
The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary policies.
Design/methodology/approach
With the development of electric reform, the impacts of economic policy on demand for electricity will be more and more obvious. It is difficult to analyze the impacts by a conventional model. CGE model is based on the theory of general equilibrium which is put forward by Walras, it describes the supplying and demanding relationship between the sectors of the economic system, a CGE model can recognize that an exogenous change (in policy or from other source) that affects any one part of the economy can produce repercussions throughout the system, it can also analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.
Findings
A CGE model and a social accounting matrix are established.
Research limitations/implications
Accessibility and availability of data are the main limitations which model will be applied.
Practical implications
A very useful model to study the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.
Originality/value
The new method to analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector in China. The paper aims at policy makers and the researchers who deal with electric power demand and supply.
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– The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the value of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling for impact analysis of real estate developments and redevelopments.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the value of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling for impact analysis of real estate developments and redevelopments.
Design/methodology/approach
Uses a model constructed for Colorado to compare estimates of economic impact of a hypothetical mixed-use development from a CGE model with an input-output (IO) model similar to those commonly used in applied economic impact analysis.
Findings
Economic impact estimates of construction activity are demonstrated to be lower when using a CGE approach as compared to an IO approach while impact estimates of continuing operations of a property are demonstrated to be more accurate and potentially higher using a CGE approach.
Practical implications
A CGE approach as opposed to an IO approach will be particularly useful for practitioners in particular cases where IO models are ill suited to provide meaningful estimates concerning impact of continuing operations. This is especially likely where commercial tenants are unknown or when the development includes a residential component.
Social implications
More complete and accurate assessments of economic impact may positively affect views on property development and redevelopment by the public and government.
Originality/value
This paper adds to the existing literature concerning economic impact analysis of real estate and is the first paper in the field, to the authors’ knowledge; to compare estimates from the standard IO approach to those derived using more sophisticated modeling techniques.
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Ageliki Anagnostou, Vyron Bourelias and Paweł Gajewski
The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for three, structurally distinctive Polish macro-regions.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, we build an interregional social accounting matrix for Poland and use it to develop a small scale, three-region CGE model, reflecting the size of regional economies and cross-regional differences in industrial structures, while also explicitly accounting for the dynamics of main economic relationships across regions, such as interregional flows in commodities, labor and capital. The model is subsequently use to simulate regional effects of various policy impulses.
Findings
We demonstrate important cross-regional differences in the transmission mechanism of macro-level policies, which either affect regional output and its individual components (as in the case of imposing shocks to VAT or PIT rates) or are limited to the components, while preserving a rather uniform impact on output (as in the case of imposing shocks to wages). Furthermore, we contribute to the regional policy equity-efficiency trade-off debate, by illustrating quantitatively how, due to structural differences, spatially targeted expenditure measures might promote either regional convergence or aggregate output growth at the country-level.
Originality/value
Prior to our study, regional CGE models have not been used to simulate spatial distribution of aggregate shocks in Poland or in any other CEE country. Another originality of our study lies in comprehensive evaluation of various policy impulses, from the perspective of their impact on the respective region, spillovers to the other regions and its overall, country-level effect.
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Roberto Roson and Camille Van der Vorst
This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE…
Abstract
This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling. It does so not only by contrasting and assessing the different methodological approaches, and the key findings of the simulation exercises, but also by putting the various contributions in a historical perspective. This is necessary because each CGE-based study should be evaluated while keeping in mind when it was realised, since questions, priorities, expectations have been constantly changing during the spreading of the pandemic.
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This study reviews the emergence of Thailand in the 1990s as the Fifth Tiger economy of Asia following the regime switch from an import substitution to export oriented…
Abstract
This study reviews the emergence of Thailand in the 1990s as the Fifth Tiger economy of Asia following the regime switch from an import substitution to export oriented industrialisation policy. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was formulated to analyse the macroeconomic and sectoral implications of implementing trade liberalisation policies in Thailand. The theoretical structure, database underpinning the model and the solution technique used to generate empirical results are explained. The simulation of trade liberalisation policy has been proxied by an across‐the‐board tariff cut on the sectoral imports. The comparative statics of both the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of trade liberalisation policy simulation over the decade ending in the year 2000 are analysed in detail. The study concludes with some observations on the controversy surrounding the distributional effects of trade liberalisation in Thailand.
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