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Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 27 May 2024

Angelo Corelli

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.

Findings

The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

Article
Publication date: 26 September 2023

Mohammed Ayoub Ledhem and Warda Moussaoui

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R-squared.

Findings

The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique.

Practical implications

This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility.

Originality/value

This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2023

Parvathy S. Nair and Atul Shiva

The study explored various dimensions of overconfidence bias (OB) among retail investors in Indian financial markets. Further, these dimensions were validated through formative…

Abstract

Purpose

The study explored various dimensions of overconfidence bias (OB) among retail investors in Indian financial markets. Further, these dimensions were validated through formative assessments for OB.

Design/methodology/approach

The study applied exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to 764 respondents to explore dimensions of OB. These were validated with formative assessments on 489 respondents by the partial least square path modeling (PLS-PM) approach in SmartPLS 4.0 software.

Findings

The major findings of EFA explored four dimensions for OB, i.e. accuracy, perceived control, positive illusions and past investment success. The formative assessments revealed that positive illusions followed by past investment success among retail investors played an instrumental role in orchestrating the OBs that affect investment decisions in financial markets.

Practical implications

The formative index of OB has several practical implications for registered financial and investment advisors, bank advisors, business media companies and portfolio managers, besides individual investors in the domain of behavioral finance.

Originality/value

This research provides a novel approach to provide a formative index of OB with four dimensions. This formative index can acts as an overview for upcoming researchers to investigate the OB of retail individual investors.

Highlights

  1. Overconfidence bias is an important predictor of retail investors' behavior

  2. Formative dimensions of the overconfidence bias index.

  3. Accuracy, perceived control, positive illusions and past investment success are important dimensions of overconfidence bias.

  4. Modern portfolio theory and illusion of control theory support this study.

Overconfidence bias is an important predictor of retail investors' behavior

Formative dimensions of the overconfidence bias index.

Accuracy, perceived control, positive illusions and past investment success are important dimensions of overconfidence bias.

Modern portfolio theory and illusion of control theory support this study.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 July 2023

Vasanthi Mamidala, Pooja Kumari and Dakshita Singh

The purpose of this study is to examine the behaviour of retail investors while making an investment decision and how it gets affected by the behavioural biases of the investors…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the behaviour of retail investors while making an investment decision and how it gets affected by the behavioural biases of the investors using a moderated-mediation framework.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed method approach has been used to fulfil the objectives of the study. In the first study, a qualitative analysis of the interviews with 15 retail investors was conducted. As part of the quantitative study, a total of 201 responses from Indian retail investors were collected using systematic sampling and analysed using structural equation modelling and Process Macro.

Findings

The results indicate that anchoring bias, availability bias, herding bias, switching cost, sunk cost, regret avoidance and perceived threat have a significant effect on retail investors’ investing intention. The attitude of the investors towards investing decisions mediates the effects of behavioural bias and the status quo on investment intention. The results of the moderated-mediation analysis indicate that mediating effect of attitude varied at the low and high-risk aversion of investors.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will help regulators and retail investors to understand the critical behavioural biases which affect the investors’ investing intention.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the literature on investors’ behaviour, status quo bias theory (SQB) and behavioural bias. This study uniquely proposes a moderated-mediation framework to understand the effects of biases on retail investors’ investment intention.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

Article
Publication date: 4 October 2022

Samra Chaudary, Sohail Zafar and Thomas Li-Ping Tang

Following behavioral finance and monetary wisdom, the authors theorize: Decision-makers (investors) adopt deep-rooted personal values (the love-of-money attitudes/avaricious…

382

Abstract

Purpose

Following behavioral finance and monetary wisdom, the authors theorize: Decision-makers (investors) adopt deep-rooted personal values (the love-of-money attitudes/avaricious financial aspirations) as a lens to frame critical concerns (short-term and long-term investment decisions) in the immediate-proximal (current income) and distal-omnibus (future inheritance) contexts to maximize expected utility and ultimate serenity across context, people and time.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors collected data from 277 active equity traders (professional money managers and individual investors) in Pakistan’s two most robust investment hubs—Karachi and Lahore. The authors measured their love-of-money attitude (avaricious monetary aspirations), short-term and long-term investment decisions and demographic variables and collected data during Pakistan's bear markets (Pakistan Stock Exchange, PSX-100).

Findings

Investors’ love of money relates to short-term and long-term decisions. However, these relationships are significant for money managers but non-significant for individual investors. Further, investors’ current income moderates this relationship for short-term investment decisions but not long-term decisions. The intensity of the aspirations-to-short-term investment relationship is much higher for investors with low-income levels than those with average and high-income levels. Future inheritance moderates the relationships between aspirations and short-term and long-term decisions. Regardless of their love-of-money orientations, investors with future inheritance have higher magnitudes of short-term and long-term investments than those without future inheritance. The intensity of the aspirations-to-investments relationship is more potent for investors without future inheritance than those with inheritance. Investors with low avaricious monetary aspirations and without inheritance expectations show the lowest short-term and long-term investment decisions. Investors' current income and future inheritance moderate the relationships between their love of money attitude and short-term and long-term decisions differently in Pakistan's bear markets.

Practical implications

The authors help investors make financial decisions and help financial institutions, asset management companies, brokerage houses and investment banks identify marketing strategies and investor segmentation and provide individualized services.

Originality/value

Professional money managers have a stronger short-term orientation than individual investors. Lack of wealth (current income and future inheritance) motivates greedy investors to take more risks and become more vulnerable than non-greedy ones—investors’ financial resources and wealth matter. The Matthew Effect in investment decisions exists in Pakistan’s emerging economy.

Article
Publication date: 23 January 2023

Amir Naser Ghanbaripour, Craig Langston, Roksana Jahan Tumpa and Greg Skulmoski

Despite considerable research on the subject, there is still some misunderstanding about what characterizes successful project delivery in construction projects. Evaluating…

472

Abstract

Purpose

Despite considerable research on the subject, there is still some misunderstanding about what characterizes successful project delivery in construction projects. Evaluating project delivery success is crucial for organizations since it enables them to prepare for future growth through more effective project management mechanisms and rank the organization's projects for continuous improvement. There is considerable disagreement over a set of success criteria that can be applied to all kinds of projects when evaluating project delivery success, making it a complicated procedure for practitioners and scholars. This research seeks to alleviate the problem by validating and testing a systematic project delivery success model (3D integration model) in the Australian construction industry. The aim is to establish a dependable approach built upon prior research and reliable in evaluating delivery success for any project type.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on a novel project delivery success model, this research applies a case study methodology to analyse 40 construction projects undertaken by a single Australian project management consultancy. The research utilizes a mixed-method research approach and triangulates three sets of data. First, the project delivery success (PDS) scores of the projects are calculated by the model. Second, a qualitative analysis targeting the performance of the same projects using a different system called the performance assessment review (PAR) scores was obtained. These culminate in two sets of ranking. The third step seeks validation of results from the head of the partnering organization that has undertaken the projects.

Findings

The findings of this study indicate that the 3D integration model is accurate and reliable in measuring the success of project delivery in construction projects of various sizes, locations and durations. While the model uses six key performance indicators (KPIs) to measure delivery success, it is evident that three of these may significantly improve the likelihood of PDS: value, speed and impact. Project managers should focus on these priority aspects of performance to generate better results.

Research limitations/implications

Restrictions inherent to the case study approach are identified for this mixed-method multiple-case study research. There is a limitation on the sample size in this study. Despite the researcher's best efforts, no other firm was willing to share such essential data; therefore, only 40 case studies could be analysed. Nonetheless, the number of case studies met the literature's requirements for adequate units for multiple-case research. This research only looked at Australian construction projects. Thus, the conclusions may not seem applicable to other countries or industries. The authors investigated testing the PDS in the construction sector. It can assist in improving efficiency and resource optimization in this area. Nonetheless, the same technique may be used to analyse and rank the success of non-construction projects.

Originality/value

Despite the research conducted previously on the PDS of construction projects, there is still confusion among researchers and practitioners about what constitutes a successful project delivery. Although several studies have attempted to address this confusion, no consensus on consistent performance metrics or a practical project success model has been formed. More importantly, (1) the ability to measure success across multiple project types, (2) the use of triple bottom line (TBL) to incorporate sustainability in evaluating delivery success and (3) the use of a complexity measurement tool to adjust delivery success scores set the 3D integration model apart from others.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

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