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This study examines the forecasting performance of the professional analysts participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators Survey using an alternative methodological research design.

This work employs two methodologies, namely a panel specification, with the cross-section being the forecast horizon (from 1-month to 18-months ahead forecasts) and the time period being the time that the forecast was made and a quantile regression technique, which evaluates the hidden nonmonotonic relations between the forecasts and the target variables being forecasted.

The empirical findings of this study show that survey-based forecasts of certain key macroeconomic variables are generally biased but still efficient predictors of target variables. In particular, we find that survey participants are more efficient in predicting long-term interest rates in the long-run and short-term interest rates in the short run, while the predictability of medium-term interest rates is the least accurate. Finally, our empirical analysis suggests that currency fluctuations are very hard to predict in the short run, while we show that survey-based forecasts are among the most accurate predictors of GDP deflator and growth.

Evaluating the accuracy of economic forecasts is critical since market participants and policymakers utilize such data (as one of several inputs) for making investment, financial and policy decisions. Therefore, the quality of a decision depends, in part, on the quality of the forecast. Our empirical results should have immediate implications for asset pricing models that use interest rates and inflation forecasts as variables.

The present study marks a methodological departure from existing empirical attempts as it proposes a simpler yet powerful approach in order to investigate the efficiency of professional forecasts. The employed empirical specifications enable market participants to investigate the information content of forecasts over different forecast horizons and the temporal evolution of forecast quality.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of monetary policy on equity returns by applying an alternative econometric approach. Campbell and Ammer (1993) decomposed unexpected equity excess returns into three news components: risk premium news, real interest rate news and cash-flow news. The literature has determined the monetary policy (MP) effects on these news components. The authors propose an alternative MP shock identification approach to analyze the MP effects on the above-mentioned news components under a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) setup. Under this approach, one can apply an MP indicator in the SVAR, which helps forecast equity excess returns along with its external instruments for identification. Further, this study uses the various recently proposed measures of exogenous MP shocks and Fed information shocks as external instruments, and shows the different patterns of the news components' responses depending on the information in the applied instruments.

While the popular image of the Sherman Act is that of a “trust-busting” statute, conduct remedies have been more common than structural relief. This paper evaluates the effect on economic welfare of conduct remedies that have resulted from ten prominent Sherman Act monopolization cases. In general, we find that in some cases the behavioral relief has had no consequence other than the cost of litigation and cost of compliance; in other cases, the remedies probably reduced consumer welfare. Cases studied are United Shoe Machinery, AT&T, Std. Oil of California, IBM, United Fruit, Kodak, Safeway, GM, Jerrold, and Blue Chip Stamp.

Construction businesses are perceived uncertainly by investors, and are generally assumed to represent more risk than other businesses. Added to this is the perception of poor business management practices being adopted by construction companies, sometimes resulting in business‐failure. Fluctuations in construction workload contribute to investor anxiety. In this light, the paper aims to present a study of the comparative management efficiency performance of construction companies.

Publicly listed Australian construction companies over the ten‐year period 1998‐2007 are examined. Performance is compared with a select number of “blue chip” companies as a benchmark. In total, 19 management efficiency measures are used including asset management ratios, debt and safety ratios, and cash flow ratios. The construction companies used in the study engage in work covering the full range of construction activities.

The results indicate that construction companies perform as well as, and in some cases better than, other businesses, dispelling some of the misconceptions about construction businesses.

The paper's finding will be useful to those investing in the construction industry, and will lead to a better public perception of construction businesses.

This study aims to both test the asymmetric information hypothesis and explore the factors influencing the one‐ through four‐quarter‐ahead Federal Reserve inflation forecasts for 1983‐2002.

Encompassing tests are used to examine the asymmetric information hypothesis. In modeling the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts, the authors are mindful of alternative theories of inflation which emphasize such determinants as cost‐push, demand‐pull and inertial factors.

First, the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts embody useful predictive information beyond that contained in the private forecasts. Second, with the private forecasts controlled for, the near‐term Federal Reserve inflation forecasts make use of qualitative information, and the longer‐term forecasts are influenced by the forecasts of growth in both unit labor costs and aggregate demand as well as the preceding‐quarter inflation forecasts and monetary policy shifts.

The Federal Reserve forecasts are released to the public with a five‐year lag and are currently available up to the fourth quarter of 2002. This limits the use of the most up‐to‐date forecasts desirable for this study.

The factors influencing the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts are basically those emphasized publicly by monetary authorities. This finding points to the Fed's transparency and should thus help enhance its credibility with the public. Also, our results (which shed light on the predictive information in the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts not included in the private forecasts) are of value, since they can help the Fed better predict how inflation will respond to policy actions, and they can help the public form more informative inflationary expectations.

Colour preferences have both scientific significance and relevance to manufacturers. Despite claims that these preferences are unsystematic and that saturation and brightness exert more influence on judgements than hue, a substantial body of research suggests that the rank order of preference for hues ‐ blue, red, green, violet, orange, yellow ‐ emerges with some degree of consistency and, in particular, blue is regularly preferred to other hues. Five explanations of this trend are considered: preferences are simply conventional; blue is more neutral and less susceptible to extremes of judgement than other hues; preference for blue is a by‐product of more general principles; blue has largely positive associations; blue has an evolutionary significance. It is proposed that further investigation of the connotations of hues will provide insight into the pattern of colour preferences.

To explore income inequality in urban China, this paper investigates disparities between- and within-urban locals and rural migrants from 2002 to 2013, using three waves of the China Household Income Project (CHIP) data. While the existing literature concentrates on the wage disparity between these two groups, our results show that the Gini among the migrants increased by 17.86% between 2007 and 2013 and that among the locals increased by 15.54% from 2002 to 2007. The urban–migrant average income gap decreased during the whole period mainly due to higher growth in migrants’ average income. Estimates based on Mincerian earnings functions for both groups reveal the significant role of the education, occupation and type of contract in determining the within-group inequality. In addition, using a recentred influence function (RIF), we observe that short-term and other types of contracts, duration of the job, in-system ownership, marriage and skill have inequality-enhancing effects for migrants. The variation of skills has a larger impact on the income disparity among migrants than on that among urban locals. The RIF-based Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition of the mean difference of incomes shows that labour market discrimination between the two groups is not significant; however, both pure explained and unexplained differences are significant when applying the RIF decomposition to the variance of the logarithms of incomes. While the type of contract significantly reduces the pure explained difference between migrants and urban locals, occupation has a positive impact on this difference between these two groups. The heterogenity analysis shows that the factors influencing incomes in these two groups are different. We recommend labour market intervention to reduce unreasonable occupational and sectoral disparities, especially in the net inflow provinces, to mitigate urban inequality in China effectively.

This paper aims to establish the relation between corporate governance – as represented by investor protection at both the legal and firm levels – and stock market liquidity.

This paper avails of the unique features of Hong Kong- and China-based stocks that are traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange so as to test whether differences between “common law” and “civil law” legal environments contribute to differences in stock liquidity. In addition, by constructing an internal corporate governance index score for each firm based on board size, board independence and information on the audit and remuneration committee, we document whether firms with better corporate governance scores have narrower spreads, greater depth and higher trading volumes.

Overall, results provide support for a linkage between corporate governance issues – as investor rights protection at both the environment and firm protection levels – and stock market liquidity.

This paper recognizes that investor protection constitutes a single component of the desirability of investing in a firm’s stock. Nevertheless, it does appear to constitute an important component of a stock’s attractiveness.

The practical implications are clear, namely, that good corporate governance of firms leads to their attractiveness as investment vehicles (for both the shorter and the longer terms).

The paper has clear social implications. In particular, the paper serves to highlight that prospects for enduring wealth creation are contingent on the safeguards accorded to the equity ownership of a firm’s stock.

The originality lies in taking advantage of the unique features of the Chinese and Hong Kong firms on the Hong Kong Exchange, so as to examine the contrasting influences of common law and civil law on stock liquidity. Thus, the authors allow for the effects of corporate governance across the two legal environments (China and Hong Kong) to be compared and contrasted while maintaining other influences unchanged across Chinese and Hong Kong shares.

This chapter proposes augmenting a simple income stock price model with spatial structures to evaluate the significance of real and financial linkages in instigating stock market contagion. The treatment is premised upon the clustering of excessive returns and volatilities during the Subprime crisis envisaged from our regime switching analysis over a long time span, and the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the baseline income stock model. With the channel factors manifested as spatial weights, this chapter explores specifications of explicit interrelated stock price returns and implicit spatial autocorrelation in the error term for the 3-year period from 2007 to 2009. Model validity is authenticated by way of model choice and spatial weight selection. The finding shows that spatial dependence in either specification is not too sizable indicating that contagion is not spreading fast in the sample period. Of the various factors considered, non-performing loans, market liquidity, and credit to deposit ratio turn out to be the most important transmission factors. Current account balance, net FDI flows, and size of GDP are among the least significant media. In sum, these suggest that financial linkages could play a more important role in facilitating shock transmission when compared to real linkages such as trade.

Reports on the progress of the US‐based Connecticut Mutual Life Insurance Company′s efforts to increase productivity and reduce costs through new information technology. Shows how the company has earned a reputation as an international leader in the use of information technology and how quality improvement results have been dramatic.