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1 – 10 of over 33000Stephanos Papadamou, Costas Siriopoulos and Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
This paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.
Design/methodology/approach
This survey covers the findings concerning portfolio rebalancing, signaling, liquidity, bank lending and confidence channels.
Findings
The positive effect of QE announcements on stock and bond prices seems to be unified across studies. A contagion effect from US QE to other emerging markets is identified, while currency devaluation is present in most cases for the country that its central bank adopted such policies. Moreover, impacts of non-conventional practices on GDP, inflation and unemployment are examined. The studies presenting weak instead of strong positive effects on inflation are more, and these studies, also, present weak positive effects on GDP growth.
Originality/value
Based on the large body of research on non-conventional action taking, this is the first survey including effects of each country that adopted quantitative easing (QE) measures and that provides results from every methodology employed in order to estimate unconventional practices' impacts.
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Suk-Joong Kim, Linda Lee and Eliza Wu
This chapter investigates the impact of policy interest rate news from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on stock returns and volatilities of U.S…
Abstract
This chapter investigates the impact of policy interest rate news from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on stock returns and volatilities of U.S. NYSE and German DAX listed commercial banks. We find that Fed news has the most influence on both U.S. and German listed bank stocks and an unexpected policy rate increase (decrease) lowers (raises) returns and raises volatility in the majority of cases. On the other hand, ECB news generally increases bank stock volatility in the United States but has little impact within its own domestic banking industry. While our results for the U.S. listed banks confirm that their stock prices are more responsive in bad economic times and also during periods of monetary tightening, we find disparities for German banks suggesting that U.S. and European banking industries respond heterogeneously to monetary policy news but the Global Financial Crisis increased the sensitivity of all banks to monetary policy news.
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Using quarterly data for a sample of 17 industrial countries, the purpose of this paper is to study asymmetry in the face of monetary shocks compared to government spending shocks.
Abstract
Purpose
Using quarterly data for a sample of 17 industrial countries, the purpose of this paper is to study asymmetry in the face of monetary shocks compared to government spending shocks.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper outlines demand and supply channels determining the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal policies. The time‐series model is presented and an analysis of the difference in the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks within countries is presented. There then follows an investigation of the relevance of demand and supply conditions to the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks. The implications of asymmetry are contrasted across countries.
Findings
Fluctuations in real output growth, price inflation, wage inflation, and real wage growth vary with respect to anticipated and unanticipated shifts to the money supply, government spending, and the energy price. The asymmetric flexibility of prices appears a major factor in differentiating the expansionary and contractionary effects of fiscal and monetary shocks. Higher price inflation, relative to deflation, exacerbates output contraction, relative to expansion, in the face of monetary shocks. In contrast, larger price deflation, relative to inflation, moderates output contraction, relative to expansion in the face of government spending shocks. The growth of output and the real wage decreases, on average, in the face of monetary variability in many countries. Moreover, the growth of real output and the real wage increases, on average, in the face of government spending variability in many countries. Asymmetry differentiates the effects of monetary and government spending shocks within and across countries. The degree and direction of asymmetry provide a new dimension to differentiate between monetary and fiscal tools in the design of stabilization policies.
Originality/value
The paper's evidence sheds light on the validity of theoretical models explaining asymmetry in the effects of demand‐side stabilization policies. Moreover, the evidence should alert policy makers to the need to relax structural and institutional constraints to maximize the benefits of stabilization policies and minimize the adverse effects on economic variables.
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Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala
The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…
Abstract
The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.
This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.
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Gabriel Caldas Montes and Raime Rolando Rodríguez Díaz
Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country…
Abstract
Purpose
Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country, this paper investigates whether monetary policy credibility and disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations relate to business confidence in Brazil. The study considers the aggregate business confidence index and the business confidence indexes for 11 industrial sectors in Brazil.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors run ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions to assess the direct effects of disagreements in expectation and monetary policy credibility on business confidence. The authors also make use of Wald test of parameter equality to observe whether there are “offsetting effects” of monetary credibility in mitigating the effects of both disagreements in expectations on business confidence. Besides, the authors run quantile regressions to analyze the effect of the main explanatory variables of interest on business confidence in contexts where business confidence is low (pessimistic) or high (optimistic).
Findings
Disagreements in inflation expectations reduce business confidence, monetary policy credibility improves business confidence and credibility mitigates the adverse effects of disagreements in expectations on business confidence. The sectors most sensitive to monetary policy credibility are Rubber, Motor Vehicles, Metallurgy, Metal Products and Cellulose. The findings also suggest the effect of disagreement in inflation expectations on business confidence decreases as confidence increases, and the effect of monetary policy credibility on business confidence increases as entrepreneurs are more optimistic.
Originality/value
While there is evidence that monetary policy credibility is beneficial to the economy, there are no studies on the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Besides, there are no studies that have investigated whether monetary policy credibility can mitigate the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Therefore, there are gaps to be filled in the literature addressing business confidence, monetary policy credibility and disagreements in expectations. These issues are particularly important to inflation targeting developing countries.
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Zafar Hayat, Jameel Ahmed and Faruk Balli
The conventional and new inflation bias theories present two distinct facets to explain the outcome of excess inflation without output gains by a discretionary central banker…
Abstract
Purpose
The conventional and new inflation bias theories present two distinct facets to explain the outcome of excess inflation without output gains by a discretionary central banker. First is the temptation to achieve a higher than potential output, and, second is not to let it falter. The authors explicitly account for these two distinct dimensions in empirical formulations both exogenously and endogenously. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to investigate what monetary discretion can and cannot do in terms of dual objectives – inflation and growth – across boom and bust cycles, both directly and indirectly.
Design/methodology/approach
(i) Segregate the economic activity into boom and bust cycles; (ii) Explicitly account for the two dimensions of conventional and new inflation bias theories; and (iii) model and estimate the direct and indirect effects of monetary discretion across business cycles.
Findings
The results indicate considerable asymmetries in the effects of monetary discretion and distribution thereof across objectives and cycles. The direct impact of monetary discretion tends to induce significantly higher inflation in boom and bust cycles, while it exerts a positive but insignificant effect on output. The inflation effects are more pronounced in boom than bust cycles and vice versa are the output effects. The indirect effects on output via inflation are significantly pernicious, which are more pronounced in expansions than recessions.
Originality/value
In a nutshell, instead of benefiting, monetary discretion tends to harm in terms of both the dual policy objectives, which cautions about its well calculated and constrained use only.
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The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of monetary policy transmission mechanism channel on firms' investment spending. The focal point is to investigate the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of monetary policy transmission mechanism channel on firms' investment spending. The focal point is to investigate the differential of monetary policy effects across sub‐sector firms' investment by examining the role of interest rates, and broad credit channel of monetary transmission.
Design/methodology/approach
The following research design has been employed in examining the relevance of both monetary policy channels. First, the firm user cost of capital as a proxy for the interest rates channel is constructed. Second, the neoclassical model of firm‐level investment function has been estimated using the dynamic panel data technique.
Findings
The results revealed that the monetary policy transmission mechanism works through both interest rate, and broad credit channels in influencing firms' investment spending in the Malaysian economy. Monetary policy has heterogeneous effects in respect of sub‐sectors of the economy. In the long‐run, the firm investment in the consumer products and services sectors are significantly affected by the interest rate and broad credit channels. However, the firm investment in the industrial products and property sectors has only been significantly affected by interest rates and broad credit channel, respectively.
Originality/value
The empirical results provide new evidence on the microeconomic effects of monetary policy in a small open economy (i.e. Malaysia) in two dimensions. First, this finding has supported the relevance of interest rates and broad credit channel of monetary transmission in a small open economy. Second, monetary policy effects are also heterogeneous by sub‐sectors of the economy, as some sectors (for example, consumer products, industrial products, and services) are significantly affected by monetary policy, and other sub‐sectors (for example, property) are not affected.
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Stanimira Milcheva and Steffen Sebastian
The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that the housing market in one country is then important when its mortgage market is well developed. The countries in the euro area follow unitary monetary policy; however, their housing and mortgage markets show some heterogeneity, which may lead to different policy effects on aggregate consumption through the housing market.
Design/methodology/approach
The housing market can act as a channel of monetary policy shocks to household consumption through changes in house prices and residential investment – the housing market channel. The authors estimate vector autoregressive models for each country and conduct a counterfactual analysis to disentangle the housing market channel and assess its importance across the euro area member states.
Findings
The authors find little evidence for heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission through house prices across the euro area countries. Housing market variations in the euro area seem to be better captured by changes in residential investment rather than by changes in house prices. As a result, the authors do not find significantly large house price channels. For some of the countries however, they observe a monetary policy channel through residential investment. The existence of a housing channel may depend on institutional features of both the labour market or with institutional factors capturing the degree of household debt as is the loan-to-value ratio.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the existing literature by assessing whether a unitary monetary policy has a different impact on consumption across the euro area countries through their housing and mortgage markets. The authors disentangle monetary-policy-induced effects on consumption associated with variations on the housing markets due to either house price variations or residential investment changes. The authors show that the housing market can play a role in the monetary transmission mechanism even in countries with less developed mortgage markets through variations in residential investment.
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Anthony Orji, Davidmac Olisa Ekeocha, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor and Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji
The market-based monetary policy framework has been favoured by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) economies. Hence, this study aims to investigate the effect of…
Abstract
Purpose
The market-based monetary policy framework has been favoured by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) economies. Hence, this study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy channels on the sectoral value added and sustainable economic growth in ECOWAS. Data from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund over 2013–2019 were sourced for thirteen member countries. ECOWAS is found to have very high inflation level, interest and exchange rates.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopted the Driscoll–Kraay fixed-effects ordinary least squares regression (OLS) estimator.
Findings
The findings revealed that while the effect of monetary policy channels on the agricultural sector value added is largely heterogenous and significantly in-elastic, the one on the industrial and services sectors are overwhelmingly homogeneous and negative, but insignificant for the services sector. Moreover, the effect of monetary policy channels on sustainable economic growth is also homogeneously asymmetric, with imminent stagflation, while the interactive effects of monetary policy channels are heterogeneous on sustainable economic growth and economic sectors. Therefore, an inflation targeting monetary policy stance is generally recommended with prioritised exchange rate stabilisation amid sufficient fiscal space.
Originality/value
This is amongst the first studies to investigate monetary policy channels, sectoral outputs and sustainable growth in the ECOWAS region with a rigorous analysis and found implications for policy.
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This paper aims to constitute to the first empirical work that investigated the effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks on Islamic equities.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to constitute to the first empirical work that investigated the effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks on Islamic equities.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used the spread between sovereign (term spread) and corporate (corporate spread) yields as proxies of unconventional monetary policy in times that FED implemented different rounds of large-scale asset purchasing programs.
Findings
This paper demonstrates that monetary policy shocks have significant effects on Islamic equities. The analysis showed substantial evidence that the corporate spread innovation was reflected as a positive signal in Islamic equity markets and has a larger impact on Islamic low leverage equities than term spread.
Originality/value
The objective of this paper is to shed some insight into the effects of US unconventional monetary policy on low leverage financial assets. It is hypothesized that during this period, specifically from November 2008, unconventional monetary policy and zero bound interest rates have been implemented in the US economy. However, the strength of effects of this range of policies on Islamic financial products is unidentified.
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