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Article
Publication date: 3 October 2023

Jie Lu, Desheng Wu, Junran Dong and Alexandre Dolgui

Credit risk evaluation is a crucial task for banks and non-bank financial institutions to support decision-making on granting loans. Most of the current credit risk methods rely…

Abstract

Purpose

Credit risk evaluation is a crucial task for banks and non-bank financial institutions to support decision-making on granting loans. Most of the current credit risk methods rely solely on expert knowledge or large amounts of data, which causes some problems like variable interactions hard to be identified, models lack interpretability, etc. To address these issues, the authors propose a new approach.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors improve interpretive structural model (ISM) to better capture and utilize expert knowledge, then combine expert knowledge with big data and the proposed fuzzy interpretive structural model (FISM) and K2 are used for expert knowledge acquisition and big data learning, respectively. The Bayesian network (BN) obtained is used for forward inference and backward inference. Data from Lending Club demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Findings

Compared with the mainstream risk evaluation methods, the authors’ approach not only has higher accuracy and better presents the interaction between risk variables but also provide decision-makers with the best possible interventions in advance to avoid defaults in the financial field. The credit risk assessment framework based on the proposed method can serve as an effective tool for relevant policymakers.

Originality/value

The authors propose a novel credit risk evaluation approach, namely FISM-K2. It is a decision support method that can improve the ability of decision makers to predict risks and intervene in advance. As an attempt to combine expert knowledge and big data, the authors’ work enriches the research on financial risk.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 123 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Chun Tung Thomas Kiu and Jin Hooi Chan

This study aims to investigate the factors influencing the adoption of data analytics in performance management. By examining the role of organizational and environmental…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the factors influencing the adoption of data analytics in performance management. By examining the role of organizational and environmental contexts, this study contributes to the existing literature by proposing a novel and detailed technology-organization-environment (TOE) model for the complex interplay between firm characteristics and the adoption of data analytics. The results offer valuable insights and practical implications for organizations seeking to leverage data analytics for effective performance management.

Design/methodology/approach

The research draws upon a data set encompassing over 21,869 companies operating across all European Union member states. A multilevel logistic regression model was developed to evaluate the influence of organizational and environmental factors on the likelihood of adopting performance analytics in organizations.

Findings

The findings indicate that the lack of awareness of the benefits of data analytics and its practical application to address specific business challenges is a significant barrier to its adoption. Organizational contexts, such as variable-pay systems, employee training, hierarchical structures and frequency of monetary rewards, also influence the adoption of data analytics.

Research limitations/implications

The study informs managers about the strategic role of data analytics capabilities in performance management for improved business intelligence and driving data culture.

Practical implications

The study helps managers understand the strategic role of data analytics capabilities in performance management, leading to improved business intelligence and fostering a data-driven culture in five key areas: structural alignment, strategic decision-making, resource allocation, performance improvement and change management.

Originality/value

The study advances the TOE theory, making it a more detailed and complete framework, particularly applicable to the adoption of performance analytics. It identifies the main factors of adoption that play a crucial role in this process.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 124 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 November 2023

Chenchen Yang, Lu Chen and Qiong Xia

The development of digital technology has provided technical support to various industries. Specifically, Internet-based freight platforms can ensure the high-quality development…

Abstract

Purpose

The development of digital technology has provided technical support to various industries. Specifically, Internet-based freight platforms can ensure the high-quality development of the logistics industry. Online freight platforms can use cargo transportation insurance to improve their service capabilities, promote their differentiated development, create products with platform characteristics and increase their core competitiveness.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a generalised linear model to fit the claim probability and claim intensity data and analyses freight insurance pricing based on the freight insurance claim data of a freight platform in China.

Findings

Considering traditional pricing risk factors, this study adds two risk factors to fit the claim probability data, that is, the purchase behaviour of freight insurance customers and road density. The two variables can significantly influence the claim probability, and the model fitting outcomes obtained with the logit connection function are excellent. In addition, this study examines the model results under various distribution types for the fitting of the claim intensity data. The fitting outcomes under a gamma distribution are superior to those under the other distribution types, as measured by the Akaike information criterion.

Originality/value

With actual data from an online freight platform in China, this study empirically proves that a generalised linear model is superior to traditional pricing methods for freight insurance. This study constructs a generalised linear pricing model considering the unique features of the freight industry and determines that the transportation distance, cargo weight and road density have a significant influence on the claim probability and claim intensity.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 123 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 April 2024

Jahanzaib Alvi and Imtiaz Arif

The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.

Abstract

Purpose

The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.

Design/methodology/approach

Annual data of non-financial listed companies were taken from 2000 to 2020, along with 71 financial ratios. The dataset was bifurcated into three panels with three default assumptions. Logistic regression (LR) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) binary classification algorithms were used to estimate credit default in this research.

Findings

The study’s findings revealed that features used in Model 3 (Case 3) were the efficient and best features comparatively. Results also showcased that KNN exposed higher accuracy than LR, which proves the supremacy of KNN on LR.

Research limitations/implications

Using only two classifiers limits this research for a comprehensive comparison of results; this research was based on only financial data, which exhibits a sizeable room for including non-financial parameters in default estimation. Both limitations may be a direction for future research in this domain.

Originality/value

This study introduces efficient features and tools for credit default prediction using financial data, demonstrating KNN’s superior accuracy over LR and suggesting future research directions.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 November 2023

Asad Mehmood and Francesco De Luca

This study aims to develop a model based on the financial variables for better accuracy of financial distress prediction on the sample of private French, Spanish and Italian…

1775

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a model based on the financial variables for better accuracy of financial distress prediction on the sample of private French, Spanish and Italian firms. Thus, firms in financial difficulties could timely request for troubled debt restructuring (TDR) to continue business.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a sample of 312 distressed and 312 non-distressed firms. It includes 60 French, 21 Spanish and 231 Italian firms in both distressed and non-distressed groups. The data are extracted from the ORBIS database. First, the authors develop a new model by replacing a ratio in the original Z”-Score model specifically for financial distress prediction and estimate its coefficients based on linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Second, using the modified Z”-Score model, the authors develop a firm TDR probability index for distressed and non-distressed firms based on the logistic regression model.

Findings

The new model (modified Z”-Score), specifically for financial distress prediction, represents higher prediction accuracy. Moreover, the firm TDR probability index accurately depicts the probabilities trend for both groups of distressed and non-distressed firms.

Research limitations/implications

The findings of this study are conclusive. However, the sample size is small. Therefore, further studies could extend the application of the prediction model developed in this study to all the EU countries.

Practical implications

This study has important practical implications. This study responds to the EU directive call by developing the financial distress prediction model to allow debtors to do timely debt restructuring and thus continue their businesses. Therefore, this study could be useful for practitioners and firm stakeholders, such as banks and other creditors, and investors.

Originality/value

This study significantly contributes to the literature in several ways. First, this study develops a model for predicting financial distress based on the argument that corporate bankruptcy and financial distress are distinct events. However, the original Z”-Score model is intended for failure prediction. Moreover, the recent literature suggests modifying and extending the prediction models. Second, the new model is tested using a sample of firms from three countries that share similarities in their TDR laws.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 September 2022

Tereza Jandásková, Tomas Hrdlicka, Martin Cupal, Petr Kleparnik, Milada Komosná and Marek Kervitcer

This study aims to provide a framework for assessing the technical condition of a house to determine its market value, including the identification of other price-setting factors…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to provide a framework for assessing the technical condition of a house to determine its market value, including the identification of other price-setting factors and their statistical significance. Time on market (TOM) in relation to the technical condition of a house is also addressed.

Design/methodology/approach

The primary database contains 631 houses, and the initial asking price and selling price are examined. All the houses are located in the Brno–venkov district in the Czech Republic. Regression analysis was used to test the influence of price-setting factors. The standard ordinary least squares estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator were used in the frame of generalized linear models.

Findings

Using envelope components of houses separately, such as the façade condition, windows, roof, condition of interior and year of construction, brings better results than using a single factor for the technical condition. TOM was found to be 67 days lower for houses intended for demolition – as compared to new houses – and 18 days lower for houses to refurbishment.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is original in the substitution of specific price-setting factors for factors relating to the technical condition of houses as well as in proposing the framework for professionals in the Czech Republic.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 July 2023

Elliot Maltz, Robert Walker, Razhan Omar Muhammad and Jay Joseph

This study aims to uses biosocial gender theory to describe successful entrepreneurial behavior in conflict zones. Specifically, the authors investigate how the reliance on…

67

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to uses biosocial gender theory to describe successful entrepreneurial behavior in conflict zones. Specifically, the authors investigate how the reliance on agentic (assertive, individual focused) behavior and communal (facilitative and friendly) behavior lead to differential outcomes depending on the physical gender of the entrepreneur exhibiting the behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors developed a conceptual framework based on extant literature. To test the framework, the authors gathered survey data from Iraqi-Kurdish entrepreneurs who have been living in a state of war since the late 1980s and use a novel analytical method to deal with the limitations inherent in gathering survey data in conflict zones. Qualitative data is presented to generate a better understanding of the survey results.

Findings

The findings indicate females who are successful in taking on the traditional male role of entrepreneur in conflict zones engage in lower levels of agentic behavior compared to their male counterparts. Successful entrepreneurs (male and female) rely extensively on communal behavior in their ventures. When it comes to community development, male entrepreneurs engaging in agentic behavior, seem to mentor aspiring entrepreneurs more than females. Females relying on communal behavior engage in more mentoring of aspiring entrepreneurs than males.

Originality/value

An understanding of the unique gender dynamics underlying entrepreneurial behavior in conflict zones remains incomplete. The study introduces evidence that gender differences, as well as social factors, combine with the unique characteristics of conflict zones resulting in different behavioral paths to entrepreneurial success. The analytical method introduces some statistical tools to scholars attempting to understand the unique conflict zone context. As such, the study provides guidance for scholars working in this context, as well as NGO’s and other institutions seeking to train entrepreneurs and improve economic conditions in conflict zones.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4604

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

15

Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Şeniz Özhan, Erkan Ozhan and Ozge Habiboglu

Brand reputation (BR) is one of the most important factors that affect the consumer–brand relationship and give businesses a competitive advantage. Businesses with a strong BR can…

Abstract

Purpose

Brand reputation (BR) is one of the most important factors that affect the consumer–brand relationship and give businesses a competitive advantage. Businesses with a strong BR can increase their market shares and product market prices, in addition to gaining a competitive advantage. In order for businesses to have these advantages, they need to know and analyze their consumers. This study aimed to develop an alternative analysis method by using classification algorithms and regression analysis to measure and evaluate the effect of consumers' BR perceptions on their willingness to pay premium prices (WPP).

Design/methodology/approach

The research data were collected from 483 participants by the online survey method due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were first analyzed with regression analysis, and the effect of BR on WPP was found to be significant. Then, using artificial intelligence (AI) methods that were not used in previous studies, consumers' perceptions of BR and WPP were clustered and classified.

Findings

The results revealed the highest and lowest customer groups with BR and WPP and empirically demonstrated that highly accurate practical classification models can be applied to determine strategies in line with these findings.

Originality/value

The model proposed in this study offers an integrated approach by using AI and regression analysis together and tries to fill the gap in the literature in this field. Therefore, the novelty of this study is to quantitatively reveal and evaluate the relationship between BR and WPP by using AI classification algorithms and regression analysis together.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 October 2022

Hermann Ndoya and Simplice A. Asongu

This study aims to analyse the impact of digital divide (DD) on income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004–2016.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyse the impact of digital divide (DD) on income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004–2016.

Design/methodology/approach

In applying a finite mixture model (FMM) to a sample of 35 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this study posits that DD affects income inequality differently.

Findings

The findings show that the effect of DD on income inequality varies across two distinct groups of countries, which differ according to their level of globalization. In addition, the study shows that most globalized countries are more inclined to be in the group where the effect of DD on income inequality is negative. The results are consistent with several robustness checks, including alternative measures of income inequality and additional control variables.

Originality/value

This study complements that extant literature by assessing linkages among the DD, globalization and income inequality in sub-Saharan African countries contingent on cross-country heterogeneity.

Details

Social Responsibility Journal, vol. 20 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1747-1117

Keywords

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