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This study aims to investigate the effects of three significant events – the 1994 CFA currency depreciation, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and instances of political coups – on the relationships between FDI inflow, economic growth, and governance within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries. It seeks to evaluate how these events influence the linkages between FDI, economic growth, and governance, to aid the understanding of responses to external shocks and internal political disruptions.

The study employs a panel Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis using data from 1990 to 2019 by exploring the dynamic relationships among FDI inflow, economic growth, and aggregate governance indicators within the CEMAC sub-region. The analysis was conducted utilizing the EViews software package, facilitating robust examination through the introduction of the Bayesian VAR to facilitate the interpretation of parameters and the data.

The results indicate that, contrary to initial hypotheses, growth and governance do not emerge as determinants for attracting FDI within the CEMAC sub-region. However, governance stands out as a crucial determining factor for economic growth. Furthermore, the study suggests that the 1994 CFA currency depreciation, the 2008 GFC, and instances of political coups did not significantly impact FDI, growth, and governance within these countries. Despite the potential vulnerability of the CEMAC countries to external shocks, the effects of these events on the dynamics of FDI, economic growth, and governance were not apparent. Notably, political instability, as evidenced by coups, emerges as a significant factor shaping the interactions between FDI, growth, and governance in CEMAC countries.

These findings have significant implications for policymakers and stakeholders in the CEMAC countries. Understanding that governance has a central role in driving economic growth places great importance of prioritizing governance reforms to foster sustainable development. Moreover, the identification of political instability as a key determinant affecting the relationships between FDI, growth, and governance emphasizes the need for political stability and effective governance structures to attract and sustain FDI inflows as well as foster economic growth.

This study contributes to the existing literature by offering insights into the linkages between FDI, economic growth, governance, and external shocks within the CEMAC sub-region. By examining the specific impacts of the 1994 CFA currency depreciation, the 2008 GFC, and political coups on these dynamics, the study provides original perspectives on the resilience of CEMAC countries to external and internal disruptions.

The objective of this paper is to examine crop yield predictions and their implications on MPCI in Ghana. Farmers in developing countries struggle with their ability to deal with agricultural risks. Providing aid for farmers and their households remains instrumental in combatting poverty in Africa. Several studies have shown that correctly understanding and implementing risk management strategies will help in the poverty alleviation agenda.

This study examines the importance of crop yield distributions in Ghana and its implication on multiperil crop insurance (MPCI) rating using the Lasso regression model. A Bonferroni test was employed to test the independence of crop yields across the regions while the Kruskal-Wallis H test was conducted to examine statistical differences in mean yields of crops across the ten regions. The Bayesian information criteria and k-fold cross-validation methods are used to select an appropriate Lasso regression model for the prediction of crop yields. The study focuses on the variability of the threshold yields across regions based on the chosen model.

It is revealed that threshold yields differ significantly across the regions in the country. This implies that the payment of claims will not be evenly distributed across the regions, and hence regional disparities need to be considered when pricing MPCI products. In other words, policymakers may choose to assign respective weights across regions based on their threshold yields.

The primary limitation is the unavailability of regional climate data which could have helped in a better explanation of the variation across the regions.

This is the first study to examine the implications of regional crop yield variations on multiperil crop insurance rating in Ghana.

Economic evaluations often utilise individual-patient data (IPD) to calculate probabilities of events based on observed proportions. However, this approach is limited when interest is in the likelihood of extreme biomarker values that vary by observable characteristics such as blood glucose in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Here, instead of directly calculating probabilities using the IPD, we utilised flexible parametric models that estimate the full conditional distribution, capturing the non-normal characteristics of biomarkers and enabling the derivation of tail probabilities for specific populations. In the case study, we used data from the Born in Bradford study (N = 10,353) to model two non-normally distributed GDM biomarkers (2-hours post-load and fasting glucose). First, we applied fully parametric maximum likelihood to estimate alternative flexible models and information criteria for model selection. We then integrated the chosen distributions in a probabilistic decision model that estimates the cost-effective diagnostic thresholds and the expected costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the alternative strategies (‘Testing and Treating’, ‘Treat all’, ‘Do Nothing’). The model adopts the ‘payer’ perspective and expresses results in net monetary benefits (NMB). The log-logistic and Singh-Maddala distributions offered the optimal fit for the 2-hours post-load and fasting glucose biomarkers, respectively. At £13,000 per QALY, maximum NMB with ‘Test and Treat’ (−£330) was achieved for a diagnostic threshold of fasting glucose >6.6 mmol/L, 2-hours post-load glucose >9 mmol/L, identifying 2.9% of women as GDM positive. The case study demonstrated that fully parametric approaches can be implemented in healthcare modelling when interest lies in extreme biomarker values.

Empirical literature is the primary source of understanding how policing can effectively reduce criminal activities. Spatial analyses can identify particular effects that can explain and assist in constructing appropriate regional strategies and policies; nevertheless, studies that use spatial regression methods are more limited and can provide a perspective on specific effects in a more disaggregated regional context.

This research aims to conduct a systematic literature review (SLR) to understand the relationship between crime indicators and police production using spatial regression models. We consider a combination of Kitchenham and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocols as a methodological strategy in five bibliographic databases for collecting scientific articles.

The SLR suggests a limited amount of evidence that meets the criteria defined in the research strategy. Several particularities are observed regarding police and criminal production metrics, either in terms of aggregation level, indicator transformations or scope of analysis. A broader time perspective did not necessarily indicate statistical significance compared to models with a single-period sample.

The findings suggest the possibility of expanding efforts by the public sector to provide policing data with the intention of conducting appropriate research using spatial analysis. This step could allow for a more robust integration between the public sector and researchers, strengthening policing strategies, evaluating the effectiveness of public security policies and assisting in the development of strategies for future policy actions.

Limited empirical evidence meets the criteria of spatial regression models with temporal components considering police production and criminality indicators. Constructing an SLR with this scope is an unprecedented contribution to the literature. The discussion can enhance the understanding of approaches for studying the relationship between police efforts and crime prevention.

This study aims to evaluate linear mixed data sampling (MIDAS), nonlinear artificial neural networks (ANNs) and a hybrid approach for exploiting high-frequency information to improve low-frequency gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting. Their capabilities are assessed through direct forecasting comparisons.

This study compares quarterly GDP forecasts from unrestricted MIDAS (UMIDAS), standalone ANN and ANN-enhanced MIDAS models using five monthly predictors. Rigorous empirical analysis of recent US data is supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to validate findings.

The empirical results and simulations demonstrate that the hybrid ANN-MIDAS performs best for short-term predictions, whereas UMIDAS is more robust for long-term forecasts. The integration of ANNs into MIDAS provides modeling flexibility and accuracy gains for near-term forecasts.

The model comparisons are limited to five selected monthly indicators. Expanding the variables and alternative data processing techniques may reveal further insights. Longer analysis horizons could identify structural breaks in relationships.

The findings guide researchers and policymakers in leveraging mixed frequencies amidst data complexity. Appropriate modeling choices based on context and forecast horizon can maximize accuracy.

Enhanced GDP forecasting supports improved policy and business decisions, benefiting economic performance and societal welfare. More accurate predictions build stakeholder confidence and trust in statistics underlying critical choices.

This direct forecasting comparison offers unique large-scale simulation evidence on harnessing mixed frequencies with leading statistical and machine learning techniques. The results elucidate their complementarity for short-term versus long-term modeling.

In this research, we explore the dynamics among measures of income inequality in the USA, male and female unemployment rates, and growth in government transfer using time series data.

This research adopts a macro-econometric approach to estimate a structural VAR model using time series data.

Our structural impulse responses found that growth in government transfer increases unemployment rates for both males and females. Female income inequality declines with increased government transfer. When the female income ratio rises, we observe that government transfer outlays fall over the forecast horizon. Variance decomposition finds that growth in government transfers is impacted by the male unemployment rate relatively more than the female unemployment rate. This research, therefore, suggests gender-specific government transfers to reduce income inequality. This, in effect, may reduce government transfer outlays over time.

This research, therefore, suggests gender-specific government transfers to reduce income inequality. This, in effect, may reduce government transfer outlays over time.

This research investigates the dynamics among income inequality, government transfer, and unemployment rates. There is a dearth of research articles that adopt a macro-econometric in this area.

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.

We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.

In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.

Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.

Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.

This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.

Predicting commodity futures trading volumes represents an important matter to policymakers and a wide spectrum of market participants. The purpose of this study is to concentrate on the energy sector and explore the trading volume prediction issue for the thermal coal futures traded in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China with daily data spanning January 2016–December 2020.

The nonlinear autoregressive neural network is adopted for this purpose and prediction performance is examined based upon a variety of settings over algorithms for model estimations, numbers of hidden neurons and delays and ratios for splitting the trading volume series into training, validation and testing phases.

A relatively simple model setting is arrived at that leads to predictions of good accuracy and stabilities and maintains small prediction errors up to the 99.273th quantile of the observed trading volume.

The results could, on one hand, serve as standalone technical trading volume predictions. They could, on the other hand, be combined with different (fundamental) prediction results for forming perspectives of trading trends and carrying out policy analysis.

This study investigates the mispricing dynamics of NIFTY 50 Index futures, drawing upon daily data spanning from January 2008 to July 2023.

The study employs both a single regime analysis and a tri-regime model to understand the fluctuations in NIFTY 50 Index futures mispricing.

The study reveals a complex interplay between various market factors and mispricing, including forward-looking volatility (measured by the NIFVIX index), changes in open interest, underlying index return, futures volume, index volume and time to maturity. Additionally, the relationships are regime-dependent, specifically identifying the regime-dependent nature of the relationship between forward-looking volatility and mispricing, the impact of futures volume on mispricing, the effect of open interest on mispricing, the varying influence of index volume and the influence of time to maturity across the three distinct regimes.

These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors by providing a detailed understanding of futures market efficiency and potential arbitrage opportunities. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics, transaction costs and timing, offering guidance to enhance market efficiency and capitalize on trading opportunities in the evolving Indian derivatives market.

The Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregression Regression (TVAR) models are deployed to disentangle the interrelationships between NIFTY 50 Index futures mispricing and related endogenous determinants.

This study investigates the Nifty 50 Index futures mispricing across three distinct market regimes.

We highlight how factors like volatility, futures volume, and open interest vary in their impact.

The study employs vector auto-regressive and threshold vector auto-regressive models to explore the complex relationships influencing mispricing.

We provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers on improving market efficiency and identifying potential arbitrage opportunities.