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Property market models have the overriding aim of predicting reasonable estimates of key dependent variables (demand, supply, rent, yield, vacancy and net absorption rate). These can be based on independent drivers of core property and economic activities. Accurate predictions can only be conducted when ample quantitative data are available with fewer uncertainties. However, a broad-fronted social, technical and ecological evolution can throw up sudden, unexpected shocks that result in the econometric outputs sceptical to unknown risk factors. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate Australian office market forecast accuracy and to determine whether the forecasts capture extreme downside risk events.

This study follows a quantitative research approach, using secondary data analysis to test the accuracy of economists’ forecasts. The forecast accuracy evaluation encompasses the measurement of economic and property forecasts under the following phases: testing for the forecast accuracy; analysing outliers of forecast errors; and testing of causal relationships. Forecast accuracy measurement incorporates scale independent metrics that include Theil’s U values (U1 and U2) and mean absolute scaled error. Inter-quartile range rule is used for the outlier analysis. To find the causal relationships among variables, the time series regression methodology is utilised, including multiple regression analysis and Granger causality developed under the vector auto regression (VAR).

The credibility of economic and property forecasts was questionable around the period of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC); a significant man-made Black Swan event. The forecast accuracy measurement highlighted rental movement and net absorption forecast errors as the critical inaccurate predictions. These key property variables are explained by historic information and independent economic variables. However, these do not explain the changes when error time series of the variables were concerned. According to VAR estimates, all property variables have a significant causality derived from the lagged values of Australian S&P/ASX 200 (ASX) forecast errors. Therefore, lagged ASX forecast errors could be used as a warning signal to adjust property forecasts.

Secondary data were obtained from the premier Australian property markets: Canberra, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth. A limited ten-year timeframe (2001-2011) was used in the ex-post analysis for the comparison of economic and property variables. Forecasts ceased from 2011, due to the discontinuity of the Australian Financial Review quarterly survey of economists; the main source of economic forecast data.

The research strongly recommended naïve forecasts for the property variables, as an input determinant in each office market forecast equation. Further, lagged forecast errors in the ASX could be used as a warning signal for the successive property forecast errors. Hence, data adjustments can be made to ensure the accuracy of the Australian office market forecasts.

The paper highlights the critical inaccuracy of the Australian office market forecasts around the GFC. In an environment of increasing incidence of unknown events, these types of risk events should not be dismissed as statistical outliers in real estate modelling. As a proactive strategy to improve office market forecasts, lagged ASX forecast errors could be used as a warning signal. This causality was mirrored in rental movements and total vacancy forecast errors. The close interdependency between rents and vacancy rates in the forecasting process and the volatility in rental cash flows reflects on direct property investment and subsequently on the ASX, is therefore justified.

Examines the inflation‐hedging characteristics of Australian commercial property and property trusts over 1984‐1995. Using the Building Owners and Managers Association property indices for Australian office, retail and industrial property, assesses the role of actual, expected and unexpected inflation. Strong evidence of inflation hedging is evident for Australian office, retail and industrial property. After adjusting for differences in market balance using vacancy rates, slightly less evidence of inflation hedging by Australian office property is evident.

Green office buildings have recently taken on increased significance in institutional property portfolios in Australia and globally. The key issue from an institutional investor perspective is the assessment of whether green office buildings add value. Using an extensive portfolio of green office buildings, the purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the level of energy rating premiums in the property performance of green office buildings in Australia.

Using a portfolio of over 200 green office buildings in Australia benchmarked against a comparable portfolio of non-green office buildings, the level of energy rating premiums in the property performance of green office buildings in Australia is empirically evaluated. Hedonic regression analysis is used to account for differences between specific office buildings and to explicitly identify the “pure” green effect in identifying the level of energy rating premiums in several commercial property performance characteristics (e.g. office value, rent).

The empirical results show the added-value premium of the 5-star National Australian Built Environment Rating Scheme (NABERS) energy rating scheme and the Green Star scheme in the property performance of green office buildings in Australia, including office values and rents. Energy rating premiums for green office buildings are evident at the top energy ratings and energy rating discounts at the lower energy ratings. The added-value “top-end” premium of the 5-star vs 4-star NABERS energy rating category is clearly identified for the various property performance parameters, including office values and rents.

This paper empirically determines the presence of energy rating premiums at the top energy ratings in the performance of green office buildings, as well as energy rating discounts at the lower energy ratings. This clearly highlights the added value dimension of energy efficiency in green office buildings and the need for the major office property investors to prioritise the highest energy rating to facilitate additional property performance premiums. This will also see green office buildings become the norm as the market benchmark rather than non-green office buildings.

This paper highlights energy performance premiums for green office buildings. This fits into the context of sustainability in the property industry and the broader aspects of corporate social responsibility in the property industry.

This paper is the first published property research analysis on the detailed determination of energy rating premiums across the energy rating spectrum for green office buildings in Australia. Given the increased focus on energy efficiency and green office buildings, this research enables empirically validated and practical property investment decisions by office property investors regarding the importance of energy efficiency and green office buildings, and the priority to achieve the highest energy rating to maximise property performance premiums in office values and rents.

The paper is motivated by the paucity of empirical research on the determinants of capitalisation rates/yield in the commercial property market. Compared to property price determinants, the capitalisation rate has received significantly less attention. This is somewhat surprising given that the capitalisation rate is a more insightful indicator for investors on commercial property market performance than merely price changes or trends. The capitalisation rate, measured as the ratio of net operating income to the property’s capital value, captures the asset’s overall ability to generate income which is crucial for investors who typically invest in property for their income-generating capacity. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues.

To evaluate the determinants of capitalisation rates, time series analysis was used. The data capture performance in the Australian commercial property market between 2005 and 2018. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation’s central bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration amongst some of the I (1) variables, the autoregressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions.

Bond rates, market risk premiums, stock market excess returns and other macroeconomic variables were found to drive capitalisation rates of Australian commercial properties. A 1% increase in the bond rate results in approximately 0.3–2.4% increase in capitalisation rates depending on the sub-market. Further, a 1% increase in excess market returns results in a 0.01–0.02% increase in capitalisation rates. Regarding risk premiums, a 100 basis point increase in the BBB spread results in approximately 0.92–1.27% reduction in cap rates in certain markets.

Asset managers will find these results useful in asset allocation strategies. Commercial properties offer attractive investment qualities such as yield stability in periods of economic uncertainty while allowing for the possibility of capital growth through appreciation of the underlying asset. By understanding the factors that affect the capitalisation rate, practitioners may predict emerging trends and identify threats to portfolio return and stability. This allows better integration of commercial property in the construction of portfolios that remain robust in a variety of market conditions.

The contribution to literature is significant given the lack of similar studies in the Australian market. The performance of real estate assets using cap rates as a comparative measure to equities and bonds influences decisions in asset allocation strategies. It provides crucial information for investors to estimate the performance of commercial property. This research supports the notion that both space and capital market indicators jointly affect capitalisation rates. The findings expand the knowledge base relating to commercial properties and validate the assessments of investors, developers and valuers who utilise yield as a performance benchmark for asset allocation strategies.

The relationship between sustainability and value in property has been a major area of investigation over the past decade. However, in spite of the extant literature and research, the connections made by valuers in practice of the value relationship are still unresolved. The purpose of this paper is to investigate, in the Australian context, valuers’ perception of the relationship between sustainability and value; and their experience and knowledge of sustainability in valuation practice.

The research investigates valuers’ perception and knowledge of sustainability and its inclusion in valuation practice in Australia. The approach uses a longitudinal survey of valuers from 2007 to 2015 tracking valuers’ knowledge, understanding, inclusion of sustainability reporting and the perceptions of the relationship between sustainability and market value.

This paper presents findings from a longitudinal survey that has been conducted in Australia since 2007, identifying changes between 2007, the height of the property market and sustainability engagement prior to the global financial crisis, and the subsequent years to 2015. The growth of sustainability in the property market is significant, however, valuers’ knowledge and reporting on sustainability is not demonstrating the same level of development. As a result, this is inhibiting valuers reporting on sustainability and has implications for practice and treatment of market values.

This research highlights the need to examine how to assist valuers to more rapidly develop knowledge and experience to reflect the implications of change in practice. Current approaches being developed in the UK and Europe, like the introduction of RenoValue professional development programs and guidance documents, to assist valuers to develop their knowledge needs to be implemented in the Australian environment as current approaches are inadequate, and steps need to be taken in order to assist their development of knowledge and experience as the market demonstrates growth and acceptance of sustainability. This research identifies the need to re-examine how professional development is undertaken and knowledge developed by those practicing in the profession in Australia.

This longitudinal survey is the only research that has spanned a substantial period of time attempting to ascertain valuers’ perception of the relationship between sustainability and value; and attempts to track the knowledge development of valuers in the context of sustainability. The findings identify how the market is developing and adhering to a product model development theory, however, also identifies more fundamental issues and implications for valuation praxis, in the development of knowledge and ability of valuers to adapt to change and reflect these valuations.

The term “Black Swan” has gained recent popularity to describe an extraordinary event that causes extensive damage. The combination of low predictability and major impact makes an upswing in the magnitude of Black Swan events an important factor when making property market forecasts. The difficulty is that the preferred property forecast models traditionally depend on input data constructed on a normal (bell curve) conditions. As outliers, Black Swan events appear not to form part of the property forecast process. The aim of this research is to examine Black Swan events.

This research examines Black Swan events and tests their impact on the accuracy of short term, six month bi‐annual survey forecasts from leading economists and property analysts for key Australian property market determinants: economic activity (GDP), ten year bonds and CBD office vacancy rates for the 2005‐2011 period.

A range of statistical tests showed inconsistencies with the expert forecasts to actual performance and importantly all the experts appeared to miss the start of the Global Financial Crisis in the December 2008 period. The variations in the margin of forecast error suggest that the experts examine the selected property determinants independently. Also, for economic activity and CBD office vacancy rates, there is an interesting trend that in several consecutive time periods, a simple naïve “no change” forecast was better than those of the experts.

In an environment of increasing occurrence of Black Swan events, this inability to forecast short term property market determinants with confidence highlights serious issues with the current approach to forecasting property market performance. The first step for research in this area is to understand and frame the property risks associated with Black Swan events.

Purpose — This study seeks to investigate the degree to which energy efficiency is incorporated into office building refurbishment and capital expenditure with the emphasis placed on a cost‐benefit analysis from the owner’s perspective. Design/methodology/approach – In order to develop a research framework, a thorough literature review was conducted of three disciplines being construction technology, building refurbishment and property management. The study identifies differences between varying levels of capital expenditure to ensure an existing building is more energy efficient, with the emphasis placed on the cost of implementation and the potential for tenants to acknowledge the increased energy efficiency via higher rents. Findings – Office buildings have been identified as a contributor to global warming during the construction phase, however during the building lifecycle there is a greater contribution to CO₂ omissions. Whilst various building designs and construction techniques have evolved to improve energy efficiency, the focus has largely been placed on new buildings where it is easier to incorporate change and innovative approaches. However, the proportion of new buildings constructed each year is relatively small in comparison to existing building stock, which requires regular capital expenditure to maintain and attract new tenants within a competitive marketplace. Practical implications – The increasing importance of energy efficiency affects the office market in a variety of different ways. Originality/value – This paper identifies important links between the environment and the built environment, and the implications for office building owners.

The built environment is a major source of carbon emissions. However, 80 per cent of the damage arises through the operational phase of a building’s life. Office buildings are the most significant building type in terms of emission-reduction potential. Yet, little research has been undertaken to examine the barriers faced by building operators in transitioning to a green operation of the office buildings in their care. This study aims to identify those barriers.

Building facilities managers with between 7 and 25 years’ experience in operating primarily Melbourne high-rise office buildings were interviewed. The sample was taken from LinkedIn connections, with ten agreeing to participate in semi-structured interviews – out of the 17 invitations sent out. Interview comments were recorded, coded and categorised to identify the barriers sought by this study.

Seven categories of barriers to effecting green operation of office buildings were extracted. These were financial, owner-related, tenant-related, technological, regulatory, architectural and stakeholder interest conflicts. Difficulties identifying green operation strategies that improved cost performance or return on investment of buildings was the major barrier.

Government, policymakers and facilities managers themselves have been struggling with how to catalyse a green transition in the operation of office buildings. By identifying the barriers standing in the way, this study provides a concrete point of departure from which remedial strategies and policies may be formulated and put into effect.

The uptake of green operation of office buildings has been extremely slow. Though barriers have been hypothesised in earlier works, this is the first study, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, that categorically identifies and tabulates the barriers that stand in the way of improving the green operational performance of office buildings, drawing on the direct knowledge of facilities experts.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of spatial dependency in the construction of a price index for the transactions of whole office buildings. It examines transactions of office buildings over a 15-year period and addresses an under-researched area in investment property analysis.

The study examines data relating to transactions of all office buildings in the Melbourne (Australia) central business district between 2000 and 2015. The methodology uses a spatial weights matrix to construct a hedonic model, spatial error model, spatial lagged model and an office building transactional price index.

The findings confirm the existence of spatial dependency for the transactions of office buildings. In addition, incorporating the effect of spatial dependency by constructing spatial error and spatial lagged model improved the accuracy of the estimated transactional price index for office buildings.

These findings make an important contribution to the literature by highlighting the importance of the issue of spatial autocorrelation in the estimation of valuation models and price indexes for office buildings. Until now the focus has predominantly been on individual office units rather than whole office buildings, where the barrier has traditionally been access to comprehensive data. The analysis did not consider leasing details as this information is not accessible in the Australian market.

The research will assist stakeholders including valuers, investors and market regulators to improve their understanding of movements in the office property transactional market. The findings provide an insight into trends associated with the transfer of office buildings. It will assist future decisions about the location of a new office building developments in order to optimise their proximity to transport and other buildings.

The study will assist planners to ensure the location of office buildings are optimised from a social sustainability perspective. This equates to buildings located in close proximity to transport facilities and also supporting the development of office buildings in locations, which are associated with lower future risk.

The construction of an accurate and reliable property index is critically important for practitioners to understand the movement in both the property market and also in the broader economy. A substantial increase in whole office building acquisitions has been observed in recent years, especially after the 2007 Global Financial Crisis (Lizieri and Pain, 2014) although there has remained limited research undertaken in this area.

New business opportunities and challenges are changing the structure of office, industrial and retail organisations and altering the pattern and demand for space. These agents of change on organisations’ decisions for new space formed the basis for a questionnaire survey of 167 new space occupiers. An index of degree of importance constructed from the results can provide a new platform for corporate real estate planning and a strategic approach to commercial property market decisions.