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This paper aims to propose a policy prioritization framework in view of a layered scenario building along with key stakeholder analysis and has been applied in a case study to determine the priority of Iran environmental policies at the horizon of 2030. A creative framework that covers future scenarios and allows for a more accurate and intelligent policy assessment and prioritization.

The general environmental policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran are evaluated, and observation policies in social area were identified. Causal layered analysis (CLA) is applied for policy prioritization based on layered probable scenarios and key stakeholder role consideration. The Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) is also used for ranking General Environmental Policies by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS).

Four uncertainties were obtained in different layers based on the CLA analysis, resulting in the creation of four main scenario and 16 discrete scenarios. Finally, Iran’s environmental policies were prioritized given the probable scenarios and the centralized policies on the social and political domains. The proposed model will be effective in policy-making in multilateral atmosphere to prioritize policies and alternative macro-strategies.

This paper shows that foresight and especially developed scenarios provide intelligent, efficient and effective planning and policy-making, and in addition to illustrating surrounding changes and probable future imagery, it generates common understanding and inter-subjective knowledge by increasing participation of various officials and stakeholders.

Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special technologies. The microturbine is a developed technology that is remarkable for its relatively high performance and ability to use several types of fuels. Microturbines are economically feasible because of the production of combined heat and power and small-scale applicability. This study aims to investigate microturbine technology development to support modern energy access in a developing country (i.e. Iran).

This paper presents a technology foresight methodology to create plausible futures of microturbine development in Iran when the country faces different driving forces and uncertainties. On other hand, the paper deals with a theoretical question: how to select appropriate foresight methodology? A procedure is proposed, which equipped the research team to select appropriate method combinations based on Popper’s diamond. Finally, the selected methodology includes defining focal issues environmental scanning and patent analysis aimed at developing five plausible scenarios for microturbine development future in Iran and creating shared visions among policymakers.

This paper proposed a series of scenarios on the path to developing microturbine technology. The scenario development logic in a participatory way contains a common four-quarter technique that attempts to depict scenarios based on two critical uncertainties inclusive energy price and technology obsolescence, which will shape the future. Also, a scenario is presented to describe a wild card that can disturb the desired futures. Such materials help decision-makers to policies under plausible conditions that guarantee a robust policy basket.

The originality of this paper can be studied based on two aspects, first, the methodology that provides a systematic method selections procedure in an emerging complex technology development program. Second, from the practical aspect, this paper is one of the very first attempts to manage the microturbine technology development program. Then, results are used to feed the policy-making process in Iran.