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Article
Publication date: 28 March 2024

Chinthaka Niroshan Atapattu, Niluka Domingo and Monty Sutrisna

The current estimation practice in construction projects greatly needs upgrading, as there has been no improvement in the cost overrun issue over the past 70 years. The purpose of…

Abstract

Purpose

The current estimation practice in construction projects greatly needs upgrading, as there has been no improvement in the cost overrun issue over the past 70 years. The purpose of this research was to develop a new multiple regression analysis (MRA)-based model to forecast the final cost of road projects at the pre-design stage using data from 43 projects in New Zealand (NZ).

Design/methodology/approach

The research used the case study of 43 completed road projects in NZ. Document analysis was conducted to collect data, and statistical tests were used for model development and analysis.

Findings

Eight models were developed, and all models achieved the required F statistics and met the regression assumptions. The models’ mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was between 21.25% and 22.77%. The model with the lowest MAPE comprised the road length and width, number of bridges, pavement area, cut and fill area, preliminary cost and cost indices change.

Research limitations/implications

The model is based on road projects in NZ. However, it was designed to be able to adapt to other contexts. The findings suggest that the model can be used to improve traditional conceptual estimating methods. Past project data is often stored by the project team but rarely used for analysing and forecasting purposes. This research emphasises that past data can be effectively used to predict the project cost at the pre-design stage with limited information.

Originality/value

No research was conducted to adopt cost modelling techniques into the conceptual estimation practice in the NZ construction industry.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2022

Parvathidevi A. and Naga Satish Kumar Ch

This study aims to assess the efficacy of thermal analysis of concrete slabs by including different insulation materials using ANSYS. Regression equations were proposed to predict…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess the efficacy of thermal analysis of concrete slabs by including different insulation materials using ANSYS. Regression equations were proposed to predict the thermal conductivity using concrete density. As these simulation and regression analyses are essential tools in designing the thermal insulation concretes with various densities, they sequentially reduce the associated time, effort and cost.

Design/methodology/approach

Two grades of concretes were taken for thermal analysis. They were designed by replacing the natural fine aggregates with thermal insulation aggregates: expanded polystyrene, exfoliated vermiculite and light expanded clay. Density, temperature difference, specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity and time were measured by conducting experiments. This data was used to simulate concrete slabs in ANSYS. Regression analysis was performed to obtain the relation between density and thermal conductivity. Finally, the quality of the predicted regression equations was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), integral absolute error (IAE) and normal efficiency (NE).

Findings

ANSYS analysis on concrete slabs accurately estimates the thermal behavior of concrete, with lesser error value ranges between 0.19 and 7.92%. Further, the developed regression equations proved accurate with lower values of RMSE (0.013 to 0.089), MAE (0.009 to 0.088); IAE (0.216 to 5.828%) and higher values of NE (94.16 to 99.97%).

Originality/value

The thermal analysis accurately simulates the experimental transfer of heat across the concrete slab. Obtained regression equations proved helpful while designing the thermal insulation concrete.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Grant Richardson, Grantley Taylor and Mostafa Hasan

This study examines the importance of income income-shifting arrangements of US multinational corporations (MNCs) on future stock price crash risk.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the importance of income income-shifting arrangements of US multinational corporations (MNCs) on future stock price crash risk.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs a sample of 7,641 corporation-year observations over the 2005–2017 period and uses ordinary least squares regression analysis.

Findings

The authors find that the income-shifting arrangements of MNCs are positively and significantly associated with stock price crash risk after controlling for corporate tax avoidance and other known determinants of stock price crash risk in the regression model. This result is robust to alternative measures of stock price crash risk and income-shifting, and several endogeneity tests. The authors also observe that income-shifting arrangements increase stock price crash risk both directly and indirectly through the information opacity channel. Finally, in cross-sectional analyses, the authors find that the positive association between income-shifting and stock price crash risk is more pronounced for MNCs that use tax haven subsidiaries and have weak corporate governance mechanisms.

Originality/value

The authors provide new empirical evidence that MNCs will likely face significant capital market consequences regarding their income-shifting arrangements.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 March 2024

Carla Ramos, Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo and Danny P. Claro

This study aims to capture how the association between a multichannel relational communication strategy (MRCS) and customer performance is contingent upon such customer…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to capture how the association between a multichannel relational communication strategy (MRCS) and customer performance is contingent upon such customer performance (low- versus high-performance customers) and to reconcile past contradictory results in this marketing-related topic. To this end, the authors propose and validate the method of quantile regression as an unconventional, yet effective, means to proceed to that reconciliation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study collected data from 4,934 customers of a private pension fund firm and accounted for both firm- and customer-initiated relational communication channels (RCCs) and for customer lifetime value (CLV). This study estimated a generalized linear model and then a quantile regression model was used to account for customer performance heterogeneity.

Findings

This study finds that specific RCCs present different levels of association with performance for low- versus high-performance customers, where outcome customer performance is the dependent variable. For example, the relation between firm-initiated communication (FIC) and performance is stronger for low-CLV customers, whereas the relation between customer-initiated communication (CIC) and performance is increasingly stronger for high-CLV customers but not for low-CLV ones. This study also finds that combining different forms of FIC can result in a negative association with customer performance, especially for low-CLV customers.

Research limitations/implications

The authors tested the conceptual model in one single firm in the specific context of financial services and with cross-sectional data, so there should be caution when extrapolating this study’s findings.

Practical implications

This study offers nuanced and precise managerial insights on recommended resource allocation along with relational communication efforts, showing how managers can benefit from adopting a differentiated-customer performance approach when designing their MRCS.

Originality/value

This study provides an overview of the state of the art of MRCS, proposes a contingency analysis of the relationship between MRCS and performance based on customer performance heterogeneity and suggests the quantile method to perform such analysis and help reconcile past contradictory findings. This study shows how the association between RCCs and CLV varies across the conditional quantiles of the distribution of customer performance. This study also addresses a recent call for a more holistic perspective on the relationships between independent and dependent variables.

Article
Publication date: 1 December 2023

Xiaoyi Li

As China's economy begins to transform into a high-quality development, and under the national “carbon peak and carbon neutral” target, all sectors of society and industries need…

Abstract

Purpose

As China's economy begins to transform into a high-quality development, and under the national “carbon peak and carbon neutral” target, all sectors of society and industries need to transform to green development to varying degrees, coupled with the catalyst of epidemics and other factors, new development requirements are put forward for enterprises to better fulfill their climate risk disclosure behaviors. Thus, it is clear that improving corporate climate risk disclosure is of far-reaching significance to both countries and enterprises.

Design/methodology/approach

This study incorporates management science, psychology and other related knowledge fields, based on stakeholder theory and media dependency theory, and aims to improve the level of corporate compliance with climate risk disclosure, suggesting the influence of entrepreneurs' visibility on corporate climate risk disclosure; on this basis, the role of entrepreneurs' visibility and media attention on corporate climate risk disclosure is verified through an empirical model; finally, targeted and effective response strategies are proposed to improve corporate climate risk disclosure, set reasonable media attention and increase the effectiveness of entrepreneurs' visibility.

Findings

This paper establishes a multiple regression model using A-share listed companies in China from 2016 to 2022 as the research sample, verifies the intrinsic association between entrepreneurial visibility and corporate climate risk climate disclosure through empirical analysis, and further examines the mediating role of media attention in the relationship between the two. The results show that entrepreneurs' visibility is positively related to the level of corporate climate risk disclosure, with media attention playing a part in mediating the relationship between the two. Increasing entrepreneurs' visibility is conducive to increasing the level of corporate climate risk disclosure. Therefore, it contributes to the dual incentive effect of reputation and compensation.

Originality/value

This study incorporates management science, psychology and other related knowledge fields, based on stakeholder theory and media dependency theory, and aims to improve the level of corporate compliance with climate risk disclosure, suggesting the influence of entrepreneurs' visibility on corporate climate risk disclosure; on this basis, the role of entrepreneurs' visibility and media attention on corporate climate risk disclosure is verified through an empirical model; finally, targeted and effective response strategies are proposed to improve corporate climate risk disclosure, set reasonable media attention and increase the effectiveness of entrepreneurs' visibility.

Details

Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. 37 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0953-4814

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

10

Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 March 2024

Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

Abstract

Purpose

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.

Findings

We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

Originality/value

We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2024

Valery Yakubovsky and Kateryna Zhuk

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that have shaped this market development in Ukraine in recent years.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a comprehensive data set encompassing relevant macroeconomic indicators and historical apartment prices. Multifactor linear regression (MLR) and ridge regression (RR) models are constructed to identify the impact of multiple predictors on apartment prices. Additionally, the ARIMAX model integrates time series analysis and external factors to enhance modelling and forecasting accuracy.

Findings

The investigation reveals that MLR and RR yield accurate predictions by considering a range of influential variables. The hybrid ARIMAX model further enhances predictive performance by fusing external indicators with time series analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of a multidimensional approach in capturing the complexity of housing price dynamics.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the real estate modelling and forecasting literature by providing an analysis of multiple linear regression, RR and ARIMAX models within the specific context of property price prediction in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market. This comprehensive analysis not only offers insights into the performance of these methodologies but also explores their adaptability and robustness in a market characterized by evolving dynamics, including the significant influence of external geopolitical factors.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 October 2023

Visar Hoxha

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskey et al. (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

Findings

The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy.

Practical implications

The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation.

Originality/value

Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2023

Masagus M. Ridhwan, Affandi Ismail and Peter Nijkamp

Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying…

Abstract

Purpose

Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying results, while the causes of such differences have not been analyzed systematically. The present study aims to fill the gap in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors compile 543 empirical estimates from 51 studies of the exchange rate-growth nexus in order to meta-analyze its relationship. Meta-analysis allows the authors to quantitatively synthesize previous empirical studies and explain the variation in the results. This method also enables us to investigate the possibility of publication bias, as there is a tendency in research only to report results that are both statistically significant and show the expected signs.

Findings

After addressing publication bias and heterogeneity in the estimates, the meta-regression results show that RER depreciation (or undervaluation) genuinely favors economic growth. On average, RER depreciation has a greater impact on economic growth in developing countries than the developed ones. The study’s results imply that maintaining an undervalued RER could be favorable to spur economic growth, especially in developing countries.

Originality/value

Initially predominant in the medical literature, meta-analysis has been on a rising edge in economics. This progress has produced many systematic quantitative review analyses with continuously improved statistical-econometric practices related to economic variables. However, to the authors’ knowledge, no comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth has been conducted and published in any publicly accessible academic outlet. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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