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The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

In the Global North, affordable housing has evolved and thrived, and it is now gaining traction in the Global South, where governments have been vocal supporters of the concept. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the important criteria for selecting affordable housing units in Ghana.

A quantitative research approach was used, and a survey was administered to the residents. The data was analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The relative importance index technique was used to rank the important criteria, and the EFA technique was used to create a taxonomy system for the criteria.

The hierarchical ranking of the most significant criteria for selecting affordable housing includes community safety, waste management and access to good-quality education. Furthermore, the important criteria for selecting affordable housing are classified into two groups, namely, “sustainability criteria” and “housing demand and supply and social service provision”.

This study has implications for the real estate industry and construction stakeholders, as this will inform decision-making in terms of the design of affordable housing and the suitability of the location for the development.

These findings provide a baseline to support potential homeowners and tenants in their quest to select affordable housing. Furthermore, these findings will aid future longitudinal research into the indicators or criteria for selecting suitable locations for the development of low- and middle-income housing.

Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national and regional (metropolitan statistical area [MSA]) level. Based on search theory, the authors, however, postulate that search activity can also predict housing returns volatility. This study aims to explore the possibility of using online search activity to predict both housing returns and volatility.

Using a k-th order non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test allows us to test for predictability in a robust manner over the entire conditional distribution of both housing price returns and its volatility (i.e. squared returns) by controlling for nonlinearity and structural breaks that exist in the data.

The analysis over the monthly period of 2004:01 to 2021:01 produces results indicating that while housing search activity continues to predict aggregate US house price returns, barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution, volatility is relatively strongly predicted over the entire quantile range considered. The results carry over to an alternative (the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based) metric of volatility, higher (weekly)-frequency data (over January 2018–March 2021) and to over 84% of the 77 MSAs considered.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study regarding predictability of overall and regional US housing price returns and volatility using search activity, based on a non-parametric higher-order causality-in-quantiles framework, which is insightful to investors, policymakers and academics.

The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that both P2P loan characteristics and macroeconomic variables have influence on loan performance. The authors define a set of loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic variables that are significant in determining the probability of default and should be taken into consideration when assessing credit risk.

The research question in this study is to find the significant explanatory variables that are essential in determining the probability of default for LendingClub loans. The empirical study is based on a total number of 1,863,491 loan records issued through LendingClub from 2007 to 2020Q3 and a logistic regression model is developed to predict loan defaults.

The results, in line with prior research, show that a number of borrower and contractual loan characteristics predict loan defaults. The innovation of this study is the introduction of specific macroeconomic indicators. The study indicates that macroeconomic variables assessed alongside loan data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default model. The general finding demonstrates that higher percentage change in House Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and S&P500 Index is associated with a lower probability of delinquency. The empirical results also exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate on P2P loan default rates.

The results have important implications for investors for whom it is of great importance to know the determinants of borrowers' creditworthiness and loan performance when estimating the investment in a certain P2P loan. In addition, the forecasting performance of the model could be applied by authorities in order to deal with the credit risk in P2P lending and to prevent the effects of increasing defaults on the economy.

This paper fulfills an identified need to shed light on the association between specific macroeconomic indicators and the default risk from P2P lending within an economy, while the majority of the existing literature investigate loan and borrower information to evaluate credit risk of P2P loans and predict the likelihood of default.

In the context of an absence of studies examining the interrelationship between Indian construction industry and residential real estate sector, the study aims to develop and test a conceptual framework to stimulate construction industry through optimisation of housing market in India. The developed conceptual framework lays down a blueprint to assess the interaction between construction industry and housing market in other countries.

Means of stimulation of construction industry by residential real estate sector were identified. Housing market was examined to identify factors constituting consumer-centric delivery and consumer-empowered demand. Supply side of housing market was probed to identify underlying factors stifling housing delivery. The identified factors were put together to form the conceptual framework. A questionnaire was developed and administered to the delivery-side stakeholders of housing market.

The study demonstrates significant correlations between real estate investment-led construction industry output stimulation and consumer-centric residential real estate delivery. The deterrents to consumer-centric housing delivery have been ascertained to be having an impact on time, cost and scope of housing projects. Significant correlations have been ascertained between the deterrents. On the demand-side, skills, awareness and engagement of consumers are strongly correlated with each other. Affordability of housing is rightfully correlated with all the three means of stimulation of construction industry output.

Specific to the Indian context, the study presents and validates a novel conceptual framework aimed at stimulation of construction industry output through interventions in housing market.

This paper aims to understand if buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services, a digital type of credit that targets young consumers, acts as a protective or a risk factor for food insecurity among young consumers in Australia.

The study uses survey data from a representative sample of young consumers aged 18–24 from all internal states and territories in Australia. Propensity score matching is used to test two hypotheses: BNPL drives young consumers to food insecurity, and food insecurity leads young consumers to use BNPL.

There is evidence that BNPL use is driving young Australian consumers to experience food insecurity, but there is no evidence of food insecurity driving the use of BNPL services.

The evidence of BNPL driving young consumers to experience food insecurity calls for the adoption of practices and stronger regulation to ensure that young users from being overindebted.

Although the link with more traditional forms of credit (such as personal loans) and consumer wellbeing has been explored more broadly, this project is the first attempt to have causal evidence of the link between BNPL and food insecurity in a high-income country, to the best of the authors’ knowledge. This evidence helps to fill the gap about the protective or risky nature of this type of digital financial product, as experienced by young Australians.

The purpose of this paper is to develop an index for measuring urban house price affordability that integrates spatial considerations and to explore the drivers of housing affordability using the post-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach and the ordinary least squares method of regression analysis.

The study is based on time-series data collected from 2005 to 2021 for 256 prefectural-level city districts in China. The new urban spatial house-to-price ratio introduced in this study adds the consideration of commuting costs due to spatial endowment compared to the traditional house-to-price ratio. And compared with the use of ordinary economic modelling methods, this study adopts the post-LASSO variable selection approach combined with the k-fold cross-test model to identify the most important drivers of housing affordability, thus better solving the problems of multicollinearity and overfitting.

Urban macroeconomics environment and government regulations have varying degrees of influence on housing affordability in cities. Among them, gross domestic product is the most important influence.

The paper provides important implications for policymakers, real estate professionals and researchers. For example, policymakers will be able to design policies that target the most influential factors of housing affordability in their region.

This study introduces a new urban spatial house price-to-income ratio, and it examines how macroeconomic indicators, government regulation, real estate market supply and urban infrastructure level have a significant impact on housing affordability. The problem of having too many variables in the decision-making process is minimized through the post-LASSO methodology, which varies the parameters of the model to allow for the ranking of the importance of the variables. As a result, this approach allows policymakers and stakeholders in the real estate market more flexibility in determining policy interventions. In addition, through the k-fold cross-validation methodology, the study ensures a high degree of accuracy and credibility when using drivers to predict housing affordability.

The purpose of this paper is to explore two financial inclusion measures adopted within the local welfare context of the city of Milan, Italy, examining their functioning and underpinning representations. The aim is also to understand how such representations take concrete shape in the practices of local actors, and their implications for the opportunities and constraints regarding individuals' effective inclusion. To this end, this paper takes a wide-ranging look at the interplay between the rise of financial inclusion and the individualisation and responsibilisation models informing welfare policies, within the broader context of financialisation processes overall.

This paper draws on the sociology of public action approach and provides a qualitative analysis of two case studies, a social microcredit service and a financial education programme, based on direct observation and semi-structured interviews conducted with key policy actors.

This paper sheds light on the rationale behind two financial inclusion services and illustrates how the instruments involved incorporate and tend to reproduce, individualising logics that reduce the problem of financial exclusion, and the social and economic vulnerability which underlies it, to a matter of personal responsibility, thus fuelling depoliticising tendencies in public action. It also discusses the contradictions underlying financial inclusion instruments, showing how local actors negotiate views and strategies on the problems to be addressed.

The paper makes an original contribution to the field of sociology and social policy by focusing on two under-researched instruments of financial inclusion and improving understanding of the finance-welfare state nexus and of the contradictions underpinning attempts at financial inclusion of the most vulnerable.