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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 November 2023

Md Badrul Alam, Muhammad Tahir and Norulazidah Omar Ali

This paper makes a novel attempt to estimate the potential impact of credit risk on foreign direct investment (FDI hereafter), thereby focusing on a completely unexplored area in…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper makes a novel attempt to estimate the potential impact of credit risk on foreign direct investment (FDI hereafter), thereby focusing on a completely unexplored area in the existing empirical literature.

Design/methodology/approach

To provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between credit risk and FDI inflows, the study incorporates all the eight-member economies of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC hereafter) and analyzes a panel data set, over the period 2011 to 2019, extracted from the World Development Indicators, using the suitable econometric techniques for the efficient estimations of the specified models.

Findings

The results indicate a negative and statistically significant relationship between the credit risk of the banking sectors and FDI inflows. Similarly, market size and inflation rate appear to be the two other main factors behind the increasing FDI inflows in the SAARC member economies. Interestingly, the size of the market became irrelevant in attracting FDI inflows when the Indian economy is excluded from the sample due to its higher economic weight. On the other hand, FDI inflows are not dependent on the level of trade openness, with most of the specifications showing either an insignificant or negative coefficient of the variable.

Practical implications

The obtained results are unique and robust to alternative methodologies, and hence, the SAARC economies could consider them as the critical inputs in formulating the appropriate policies on FDI inflows.

Originality/value

The findings are unique and original. The authors have established a relationship between credit risk and FDI for the first time in the SAARC context.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 29 no. 57
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Folorunsho M. Ajide and James T. Dada

The study's objective is to examine the relevance of globalization in affecting the size of the shadow economy in selected African nations.

Abstract

Purpose

The study's objective is to examine the relevance of globalization in affecting the size of the shadow economy in selected African nations.

Design/methodology/approach

To do this, the authors employ the KOF globalization index and implement both static and dynamic common correlated mean group estimators on a panel of 24 African nations from 1995–2017. This technique accommodates the issue of cross-sectional dependence, sample bias and endogenous regressors. Panel threshold analysis is also conducted to establish the nonlinearity between globalization and the shadow economy. To examine the causality between the variables, the study employs Dumitrescu and Hurlin's panel causality test.

Findings

The results show that globalization reduces the size of the shadow economy. The results of the nonlinear analysis suggest a U-shaped relationship. Overall globalization has a threshold impact of 48.837%, economic globalization has 45.615% and political globalization has 66.661% while social globalization has a threshold value of 35.744%. The results of the panel causality show that there is a bidirectional causality between the two variables.

Practical implications

The results suggest that the government and other relevant authorities need to introduce capital controls and other policy measures to moderate the degree of social, political and cultural diffusion. Appropriate policies should be formulated to monitor the extent of African economic openness to other continents to maximize the gains from globalization.

Originality/value

Apart from being the first study in the African region that evaluates the relevance of globalization in controlling the shadow economy, it also analyzes the dynamics and threshold analysis between the two variables using advanced panel econometrics which makes the study unique. The study suggests that globalization tools are useful for affecting the size of the shadow economy in Africa. This study provides fresh empirical evidence on the impact of globalization on the shadow economy in the case of Africa.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Sami Zaki Alabdulwahab and Ahmed Sabry Abou-Zaid

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

Findings

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

Originality/value

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 January 2024

Mert Akyuz, Muhammed Sehid Gorus and Cihan Gunes

This investigation aims to determine the effect of trade uncertainty on domestic investment (DI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Turkish economy from the first quarter…

Abstract

Purpose

This investigation aims to determine the effect of trade uncertainty on domestic investment (DI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Turkish economy from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adopt the vector autoregression (VAR) model augmented with Fourier terms. Using this methodology, the authors obtain the empirical results of the impulse-response functions and the variance decomposition analysis.

Findings

The empirical results demonstrate that a shock to trade uncertainty has a slight negative impact on DI for up to approximately 1.5 years, whereas its impact on FDI is negative but long-lasting. Moreover, the contribution of trade uncertainty to FDI is relatively higher than to DI in the error variance decomposition for the investigated period. These empirical results can be beneficial for shaping the Turkish authorities' trade policies in the following periods.

Research limitations/implications

These findings have implications within the macroeconomic setting. Government authorities can provide tax exemptions for specified sectors and debureaucratize investment processes for both domestic and foreign entrepreneurs. Additionally, institutional quality and property rights should be protected strictly and developed gradually.

Originality/value

This study is the first to examine the impact of world trade uncertainty on Türkiye’s DI and FDI. Because trade uncertainty might act as fixed costs, this creates the option value of waiting and seeing the market, and firms hesitate to incur investment.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 August 2023

Takawira Munyaradzi Ndofirepi

This study aims to examine the degree to which a selection of home country factors affects the proclivity of firms to internationalise. The study also proposes and tests a…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the degree to which a selection of home country factors affects the proclivity of firms to internationalise. The study also proposes and tests a conceptual model that fuses institutional and resource-based theories to improve our understanding of firm internationalisation.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses cross-sectional, national-level secondary data from the 2018 Global Entrepreneurship Development Institute and World Economic Forum data sets on global entrepreneurship and competitiveness indices for 137 countries. The data is analysed using correlation and hierarchical regression analysis to test the hypotheses.

Findings

The results indicate that national income, institutions, trade openness and availability of risk capital positively influenced firm internationalisation, while home-country networking had an inverse effect. However, home country infrastructure had no statistically significant effect on firm internationalisation.

Research limitations/implications

The findings highlight the importance of considering home country attributes in understanding the internationalisation of firms.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing empirical evidence of the role of local factors on the internationalisation of entrepreneurial ventures. It also tests a novel conceptual model that integrates institutional and resource-based theories to explain the nuances of the internationalisation of business ventures globally.

Details

Review of International Business and Strategy, vol. 34 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2059-6014

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 February 2022

Sean Gossel

This paper investigates whether democracy plays a mediating role in the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates whether democracy plays a mediating role in the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis is conducted using fixed effects and system GMM (Generalised Method of Moments) on a panel of 38 Sub-Saharan African countries covering the period of 1990–2018.

Findings

The results find that FDI has no direct effect on inequality whereas democracy reduces inequality directly in both the short run and the long run. The sensitivity analyses find that democracy improves equality regardless of the magnitude of FDI, resource endowment or democratic deepening whereas FDI only reduces inequality once a moderate level of democracy has been achieved.

Social implications

The results discussed above thus have four policy implications. First, these results show that although democracy has inequality reducing benefits, SSA is unlikely to significantly reduce inequality unless the region purposefully diversifies its trade and FDI away from natural resources. Second, the region should continue to expand credit access to reduce inequality and attract FDI. Third, policymakers should undertake reforms that will reduce youth inequality. Lastly, the region should focus on long-run democratic reforms rather than on short-run democratization to improve governance and investor confidence.

Originality/value

Although there are existing studies that examine the association between FDI and inequality, FDI and democracy and democracy and inequality, this is the first study to explicitly examine the effect of democracy on the association between FDI and inequality in SSA, and the first study to separately consider the possible varied effects of contemporaneous democratization versus the long-run accumulation of democratic capital. In addition, rather than measure inequality by income alone, this study uses the more appropriate Human Development Index to account for SSA's sociological, education and income disparities.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Ivan D. Trofimov

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

Findings

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

Originality/value

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2023

Reetika Verma

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Design/methodology/approach

Johansen cointegration test is employed to know the long run relationship among the stock market indices of Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, India, Japan, China, Taiwan, Israel and South Korea. The empirical testing was done to analyze whether any significant change has been induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the cointegrating relationship of the selected markets or not. Through statistics of trace test and maximum eigen value, total number of cointegrating equations present among all the indices during different study periods were analyzed.

Findings

The presence of cointegration was found during all the sample periods and the findings suggests that the selected stock markets are associated with each other in general. During COVID-19 crisis period the cointegration level was reduced and again it regained its original level in the next year and again reduced in the subsequent next year. So, the cointegrating relationship among selected stock market indices remains dynamic and no evidence of impact of COVID-19 on this dynamism was found.

Originality/value

The study has explored the level of cointegration among the major stock indices of Asian nations in the pre, during, post-crisis and the most recent periods. The interconnectedness of the stock markets during the COVID-19 times has been compared with similar periods in different years immediately preceding and succeeding the COVID-19 times which has not been done in any of the existing study.

Details

IIM Ranchi journal of management studies, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-0138

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 November 2022

Thai-Ha Le, Long Hai Vo and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

This study examines the co-integration relationships between Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) stock indices as a way to assess the feasibility of policy initiatives to…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the co-integration relationships between Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) stock indices as a way to assess the feasibility of policy initiatives to strengthen market integration in ASEAN and identify implications for portfolio investors.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ threshold co-integration tests and a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to study the asymmetric dynamics of ASEAN equity markets. The study’s data cover the 2009–2022 period for seven member states: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Findings

The authors find evidence supporting co-integration relationships; adjustment toward equilibrium is asymmetric in the short run and symmetric in the long run for these countries. While co-movement in ASEAN equity markets seems encouraging for initiatives seeking to foster financial integration in regional economies, the benefits for international portfolio diversification appear to be neutralized.

Originality/value

The issue of stock market integration is important among policymakers, investors and academics. This study examines the level of stock market integration in ASEAN during the 2009–2022 period. For this purpose, advanced co-integration techniques are applied to different frequencies of data (daily, weekly and monthly) for comparison and completeness. The empirical analysis of this study is conducted using the Enders and Siklos (2001) co-integration and threshold adjustment procedure. This advanced co-integration technique is superior compared to other co-integration techniques by permitting asymmetry in the adjustment toward equilibrium.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 May 2024

Tapas Kumar Sethy and Naliniprava Tripathy

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on the conditional volatility of the equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study employs the Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) for pricing systematic liquidity risk using the Fama & MacBeth cross-sectional regression model in the Indian stock market from January 1, 2012, to March 31, 2021. Further, the study employed an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (1,1) model to observe the impact of decomposed illiquidity on the equity market’s conditional volatility. The study also uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to illuminate the return-volatility-liquidity relationship.

Findings

The study’s findings indicate that the commonality between individual security liquidity and aggregate liquidity is positive, and the covariance of individual security liquidity and the market return negatively affects the expected return. The study’s outcome specifies that illiquidity time series analysis exhibits the asymmetric effect of directional change in return on illiquidity. Further, the study indicates a significant impact of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on conditional volatility. This suggests an asymmetric effect of illiquidity shocks on conditional volatility in the Indian stock market.

Originality/value

This study is one of the few studies that used the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to measure liquidity and market risks as specified in the LCAPM. Further, the findings of the reverse impact of illiquidity and decomposed higher and lower illiquidity on conditional volatility confirm the presence of price informativeness and its immediate effects on illiquidity in the Indian stock market. The study strengthens earlier studies and offers new insights into stock market liquidity to clarify the association between liquidity and stock return for effective policy and strategy formulation that can benefit investors.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

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