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Book part
Publication date: 29 May 2023

Miklesh Prasad Yadav, Atul Kumar and Vidhi Tyagi

Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter applies tests associated with the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and Johansen cointegration test. AMH acknowledges the views of the…

Abstract

Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter applies tests associated with the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and Johansen cointegration test. AMH acknowledges the views of the efficient market hypothesis and behavioural finance approach.

Purpose: Cryptocurrencies are considered a new asset class by multiasset portfolio managers. Hence, we examine the AMH and cointegration in the cryptocurrency market to know whether select cryptocurrencies can be diversified.

Findings: We find that cryptocurrencies are efficient and there is a long-run relationship among constituent series, and there is no short-run causality derived from bitcoin, Ethereum and litecoin to bitcoin, while stellar and Dogecoin have short-run causality to bitcoin.

Originality/Value: This chapter is different from the existing one as this is the first study in which the AMH and Johansen cointegration test are applied to check the efficiency and relationship of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero, Stellar, litecoin and Dogecoin.

Details

Smart Analytics, Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Performance Management in a Global Digitalised Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-555-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Shalini Velappan

This study aims to investigate the co-volatility patterns between cryptocurrencies and conventional asset classes across global markets, encompassing 26 global indices ranging…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the co-volatility patterns between cryptocurrencies and conventional asset classes across global markets, encompassing 26 global indices ranging from equities, commodities, real estate, currencies and bonds.

Design/methodology/approach

It used a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model to capture the dynamic changes in covariance and volatility correlation, thus offering empirical insights into the co-volatility dynamics. Unlike conventional research on price or return transmission, this study directly models the time-varying covariance and volatility correlation.

Findings

The study uncovers pronounced co-volatility movements between cryptocurrencies and specific indices such as GSCI Energy, GSCI Commodity, Dow Jones 1 month forward and U.S. 10-year TIPS. Notably, these movements surpass those observed with precious metals, industrial metals and global equity indices across various regions. Interestingly, except for Japan, equity indices in the USA, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, India and China exhibit a co-volatility movement. These findings challenge the existing literature on cryptocurrencies and provide intriguing evidence regarding their co-volatility dynamics.

Originality

This study significantly contributes to applying asset pricing models in cryptocurrency markets by explicitly addressing price and volatility dynamics aspects. Using the stochastic volatility model, the research adding methodological contribution effectively captures cryptocurrency volatility's inherent fluctuations and time-varying nature. While previous literature has primarily focused on bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies, this study examines the stochastic volatility properties of a wide range of cryptocurrency indices. Furthermore, the study expands its scope by examining global asset markets, allowing for a comprehensive analysis considering the broader context in which cryptocurrencies operate. It bridges the gap between traditional asset pricing models and the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

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Article
Publication date: 6 June 2023

Cynthia Weiyi Cai, Rui Xue and Bi Zhou

This study reviews existing cryptocurrency research to provide answers to three puzzles in the literature. First, is cryptocurrency more like gold (i.e., a commodity) or should…

Abstract

Purpose

This study reviews existing cryptocurrency research to provide answers to three puzzles in the literature. First, is cryptocurrency more like gold (i.e., a commodity) or should it be classified as a new financial asset? Second, can we apply our knowledge of the traditional capital market to the emerging cryptocurrency market? Third, what might be the future of cryptocurrency?

Design/methodology/approach

Bibliometric analysis is used to assess 2,098 finance-related cryptocurrency publications from the Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection database from January 2009 to April 2022. Three key research streams are identified, namely, (1) cryptocurrency features, (2) behaviour of the cryptocurrency market and (3) blockchain implications.

Findings

First, cryptocurrency should be viewed and regulated as a new asset class rather than a currency or a new commodity. While it can provide diversification benefits to the portfolio, cryptocurrency cannot work as a safe haven asset. Second, crypto markets are typically inefficient. Asset bubbles exist and are exacerbated by behavioural finance factors. Third, cryptocurrency demonstrates increasing potential as a medium of exchange and store of value.

Originality/value

Extant review papers primarily study one or two particular research topics, overlooking the interaction between topics. The few existing systematic literature reviews in this area typically have a narrow focus on trend identification. This study is the first study to provide a comprehensive review of all financial-related studies on cryptocurrency, synthesising the research findings from 2,098 publications to answer three cryptocurrency puzzles.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. 46 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 August 2022

Yong He, Xiaohua Zeng, Huan Li and Wenhong Wei

To improve the accuracy of stock price trend prediction in the field of quantitative financial trading, this paper takes the prediction accuracy as the goal and avoid the enormous…

Abstract

Purpose

To improve the accuracy of stock price trend prediction in the field of quantitative financial trading, this paper takes the prediction accuracy as the goal and avoid the enormous number of network structures and hyperparameter adjustments of long-short-term memory (LSTM).

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, an adaptive genetic algorithm based on individual ordering is used to optimize the network structure and hyperparameters of the LSTM neural network automatically.

Findings

The simulation results show that the accuracy of the rise and fall of the stock outperform than the model with LSTM only as well as other machine learning models. Furthermore, the efficiency of parameter adjustment is greatly higher than other hyperparameter optimization methods.

Originality/value

(1) The AGA-LSTM algorithm is used to input various hyperparameter combinations into genetic algorithm to find the best hyperparameter combination. Compared with other models, it has higher accuracy in predicting the up and down trend of stock prices in the next day. (2) Adopting real coding, elitist preservation and self-adaptive adjustment of crossover and mutation probability based on individual ordering in the part of genetic algorithm, the algorithm is computationally efficient and the results are more likely to converge to the global optimum.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

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Article
Publication date: 18 December 2023

Volodymyr Novykov, Christopher Bilson, Adrian Gepp, Geoff Harris and Bruce James Vanstone

Machine learning (ML), and deep learning in particular, is gaining traction across a myriad of real-life applications. Portfolio management is no exception. This paper provides a…

Abstract

Purpose

Machine learning (ML), and deep learning in particular, is gaining traction across a myriad of real-life applications. Portfolio management is no exception. This paper provides a systematic literature review of deep learning applications for portfolio management. The findings are likely to be valuable for industry practitioners and researchers alike, experimenting with novel portfolio management approaches and furthering investment management practice.

Design/methodology/approach

This review follows the guidance and methodology of Linnenluecke et al. (2020), Massaro et al. (2016) and Fisch and Block (2018) to first identify relevant literature based on an appropriately developed search phrase, filter the resultant set of publications and present descriptive and analytical findings of the research itself and its metadata.

Findings

The authors find a strong dominance of reinforcement learning algorithms applied to the field, given their through-time portfolio management capabilities. Other well-known deep learning models, such as convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) and its derivatives, have shown to be well-suited for time-series forecasting. Most recently, the number of papers published in the field has been increasing, potentially driven by computational advances, hardware accessibility and data availability. The review shows several promising applications and identifies future research opportunities, including better balance on the risk-reward spectrum, novel ways to reduce data dimensionality and pre-process the inputs, stronger focus on direct weights generation, novel deep learning architectures and consistent data choices.

Originality/value

Several systematic reviews have been conducted with a broader focus of ML applications in finance. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first review to focus on deep learning architectures and their applications in the investment portfolio management problem. The review also presents a novel universal taxonomy of models used.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 October 2023

R.L. Manogna and Aayush Anand

Deep learning (DL) is a new and relatively unexplored field that finds immense applications in many industries, especially ones that must make detailed observations, inferences…

Abstract

Purpose

Deep learning (DL) is a new and relatively unexplored field that finds immense applications in many industries, especially ones that must make detailed observations, inferences and predictions based on extensive and scattered datasets. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent has DL penetrated the research being done in finance? (2) What areas of financial research have applications of DL, and what quality of work has been done in the niches? (3) What areas still need to be explored and have scope for future research?

Design/methodology/approach

This paper employs bibliometric analysis, a potent yet simple methodology with numerous applications in literature reviews. This paper focuses on citation analysis, author impacts, relevant and vital journals, co-citation analysis, bibliometric coupling and co-occurrence analysis. The authors collected 693 articles published in 2000–2022 from journals indexed in the Scopus database. Multiple software (VOSviewer, RStudio (biblioshiny) and Excel) were employed to analyze the data.

Findings

The findings reveal significant and renowned authors' impact in the field. The analysis indicated that the application of DL in finance has been on an upward track since 2017. The authors find four broad research areas (neural networks and stock market simulations; portfolio optimization and risk management; time series analysis and forecasting; high-frequency trading) with different degrees of intertwining and emerging research topics with the application of DL in finance. This article contributes to the literature by providing a systematic overview of the DL developments, trajectories, objectives and potential future research topics in finance.

Research limitations/implications

The findings of this paper act as a guide for literature review for anyone interested in doing research in the intersection of finance and DL. The article also explores multiple areas of research that have yet to be studied to a great extent and have abundant scope.

Originality/value

Very few studies have explored the applications of machine learning (ML), namely, DL in finance, which is a much more specialized subset of ML. The authors look at the problem from the aspect of different techniques in DL that have been used in finance. This is the first qualitative (content analysis) and quantitative (bibliometric analysis) assessment of current research on DL in finance.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 September 2023

Shaen Corbet, Yang (Greg) Hou, Yang Hu, Les Oxley and Mengxuan Tang

The rapid growth of Fintech presents a growing challenge for banking institutions, particularly those with more traditional, service backgrounds. This paper aims to examine the…

Abstract

Purpose

The rapid growth of Fintech presents a growing challenge for banking institutions, particularly those with more traditional, service backgrounds. This paper aims to examine the relationship between Fintech innovation and bank performance by exploiting novel Chinese market data.

Design/methodology/approach

Guided by the work of Dietrich and Wanzenried (2011, 2014) and Phan et al. (2019), the authors construct a regression model to investigate the effect of Fintech innovation on the profitability of Chinese listed banks. The authors include their measures of Fintech innovation in each of their selected structures.

Findings

Results indicate that Fintech innovation is negatively associated with bank performance and that state-owned banks, joint-stock commercial banks and long-established banks are more negatively impacted by Fintech innovation relative to city and rural commercial banks and younger banks.

Originality/value

Risk tolerance levels, internal structure and efficiency and recent debt repayment performance channels are each shown to be significant, robust explanatory factors underpinning such results.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 April 2024

Saeed Fathi and Zeinab Fazelian

The empirical studies of the options market efficiency have reported contradictory results, which sometimes confuse practitioners and academicians. The aim of this study was to…

Abstract

Purpose

The empirical studies of the options market efficiency have reported contradictory results, which sometimes confuse practitioners and academicians. The aim of this study was to clarify several aspects of options market efficiency by exploring the answers to two main questions: Under what conditions is the options market more efficient? Are the discrepancies in the estimated efficiency due to the reality of efficiency or mismeasurement?

Design/methodology/approach

Using a meta-analysis approach, 54 studies have been analyzed, which included 1,315 tests. The sum of the observations for all of the tests is 3.7 m observation sets. The effect size (type r) has been used to compare the different statistics in different studies. The cumulative effect size and its diversification have been calculated by the random effects model and Q statistic, respectively.

Findings

The most interesting finding of the study was that the options market, in all circumstances, is significantly inefficient. Another important finding was that the heterogeneity of options market efficiency is due to the complexity of pricing relations, test time, violation index and price type. To overcome this heterogeneity and accuracy, future studies should test the no-arbitrage options pricing relations at different times and by different price types, using complex and simple pricing relations and either mean violation or violation ratio efficiency measures.

Originality/value

Public disagreement about the options market efficiency in past studies means that this variable is heterogeneous in different conditions. As a significant contribution, this study develops the literature by proposing the causes of options market efficiency heterogeneity.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Rafał Wolski, Monika Bolek, Jerzy Gajdka, Janusz Brzeszczyński and Ali M. Kutan

This study aims to answer the question whether investment funds managers exhibit behavioural biases in their investment decisions. Furthermore, it investigates if fund managers…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to answer the question whether investment funds managers exhibit behavioural biases in their investment decisions. Furthermore, it investigates if fund managers, as a group of institutional investors, make decisions in response to central bank’s communication as well as other information in relation to various behavioural inclinations.

Design/methodology/approach

A comprehensive study was conducted based on a questionnaire, which is composed of three main parts exploring: (1) general information about the funds under the management of the surveyed group of fund managers, (2) factors that influence the investment process with an emphasis on the National Bank of Poland communication and (3) behavioural inclinations of the surveyed group. Cronbach’s alpha statistic was applied for measuring the reliability of the survey questionnaire and then chi-squared test was used to investigate the relationships between the answers provided in the survey.

Findings

The central bank’s communication matters for investors, but its impact on their decisions appears to be only moderate. Interest rates were found to be the most important announcements for investment fund managers. The stock market was the most popular market segment where the investments were made. The ultra-short time horizon played no, or only small, role in the surveyed fund managers’ decisions as most of them invested in a longer horizon covering 1 to 5 years. Moreover, most respondents declared that they considered in their decisions the information about market expectations published in the media. Finally, majority of the fund managers manifested limited rationality and were subject to behavioural biases, but the decisions and behavioural inclinations were independent and, in most cases, they did not influence each other.

Practical implications

The results reported in this study can be used in practice to better understand and to improve the fund managers’ decision-making processes.

Originality/value

Apart from the commonly tested behavioural biases in the group of institutional investors in the existing literature, such as loss aversion, disposition effect or overconfidence, this paper also focuses on the less intensively analysed behavioural inclinations, i.e. framing, illusion of the control, representativeness, sunk cost effect and fast thinking. The originality of this study further lies in the way the research was conducted through interviews with fund managers, who were found to be subject to behavioural biases, although those behavioural inclinations did not influence their investment decisions. This finding indicates that professionalism and collectivism in the group of institutional investors protect them from irrationality.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Jihoon Goh and Donghoon Kim

In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the…

Abstract

In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the composite mispricing index. Our results suggest that investors' demand for the lottery and the arbitrage risk effect of MAX may overlap and negate each other. Furthermore, MAX itself has independent information apart from idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL), which assures that the high positive correlation between IVOL and MAX does not directly cause our empirical findings. Finally, by analyzing the direct trading behavior of investors, our results suggest that investors' buying pressure for lottery-like stocks is concentrated among overpriced stocks.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 32 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

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