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Purpose: Through globalization, financial markets have become more integrated and their tendency to act together has increased. The majority of the literature states that there is a cointegration between developed and emerging markets. How do positive or negative shocks in developed markets affect emerging markets? And how do positive or negative shocks in emerging markets affect developed markets? For this reason, the aim of the study is to investigate the asymmetric causality relationship between developed and emerging markets with Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test.

Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index was used to represent developed markets and the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index was used to represent emerging markets. The asymmetric causality relationship between the DJIA Index and the MSCI Emerging Market Index was investigated using monthly data between January 2009 and April 2019. In the first step of the study, the Johansen Cointegration Test was used to determine whether there is a cointegration between the markets. In the next step, the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test was applied to see the asymmetric causality relationship between the markets.

Findings: There is a weak correlation between developed and emerging markets. This result is important for international investors who want to diversify their portfolios. As a result of the Johansen Cointegration Test, it was found that there is a long-term relationship between the MSCI Emerging Market Index and the DJIA Index. Therefore, investors who make long-term investment plans should not forget that these markets act together and take into account the causal relationship between them. According to the asymmetric causality test results, a unidirectional causality relationship from the MSCI Emerging Market Index to the DJIA Index was determined. This causality shows that negative shocks in the MSCI Emerging Market Index have positive effects on the DJIA Index.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature as it is one of the first studies to examine the asymmetrical relationship between developed and emerging markets. This study is also useful in predicting the short- and long-term relationship between markets. In addition, this study helps investors, portfolio managers, company managers, policymakers, etc., to understand the integration of financial markets.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the association between economic factors (consumer price index, real gross domestic product per capita, base discount rate, and rate of unemployment) and numbers of hospital psychiatric beds.

Time series analytical techniques (unit root and cointegration tests) were applied to two regional data sets from the nineteenth century (North Carolina, USA; Berkshire, UK) and three national data sets in the twentieth century (US; UK; Italy) to test the hypothesis of a relationship.

All data sets suggest a long‐run relationship between economic factors and psychiatric bed numbers. Increase of consumer price predicted a decrease of hospital beds (and vice versa) in all data sets and was the strongest predictor of changes in psychiatric bed numbers. Hence, economic factors appear to be an important driver for the supply of hospital beds.

Cointegration tests are not true causality tests as they only measure the ability to forecast the value of an X variable knowing the value of N other variables. Therefore, one cannot rule out that the relationship between economic factors and psychiatric hospital beds is an indirect one, caused by another unidentified factor. Also, this study alone does not provide evidence to decide whether economic factors mainly influence demand or supply, although various findings suggest the latter.

CPI is of particular significance for changes in psychiatric bed provision, and co‐integration tests are a useful method to explore such association.

This study is the first one to apply time series analytical techniques to explore the role of economic factors in the processes of psychiatric institutionalisation and deinstitutionalisation.

Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter applies tests associated with the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and Johansen cointegration test. AMH acknowledges the views of the efficient market hypothesis and behavioural finance approach.

Purpose: Cryptocurrencies are considered a new asset class by multiasset portfolio managers. Hence, we examine the AMH and cointegration in the cryptocurrency market to know whether select cryptocurrencies can be diversified.

Findings: We find that cryptocurrencies are efficient and there is a long-run relationship among constituent series, and there is no short-run causality derived from bitcoin, Ethereum and litecoin to bitcoin, while stellar and Dogecoin have short-run causality to bitcoin.

Originality/Value: This chapter is different from the existing one as this is the first study in which the AMH and Johansen cointegration test are applied to check the efficiency and relationship of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero, Stellar, litecoin and Dogecoin.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing exchange rate behavior over the last 40 years. Furthermore, we test the flexible price monetarist variant and the sticky price Keynesian variant of the monetary model. We conduct our analysis employing a sample of 14 advanced economies using annual data spanning the period 1880–2012.

The theoretical background of the paper relies on the monetary model to the exchange rate determination. We provide a thorough econometric analysis using a battery of unit root and cointegration testing techniques. We test the price-flexible monetarist version and the sticky-price version of the model using annual data from 1880 to 2012 for a group of industrialized countries.

We provide strong evidence of the existence of a nonlinear relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Therefore, we model the time-varying nature of this relationship by allowing for Markov regime switches for the exchange rate regimes. Modeling exchange rates within this context can be motivated by the fact that the change in regime should be considered as a random event and not predictable. These results show that linearity is rejected in favor of an MS-VECM specification which forms statistically an adequate representation of the data. Two regimes are implied by the model; the one of the estimated regimes describes the monetary model whereas the other matches in most cases the constant coefficient model with wrong signs. Furthermore it is shown that depending on the nominal exchange rate regime in operation, the adjustment to the long run implied by the monetary model of the exchange rate determination came either from the exchange rate or from the monetary fundamentals. Moreover, based on a Regime Classification Measure, we showed that our chosen Markov-switching specification performed well in distinguishing between the two regimes for all cases. Finally, it is shown that fundamentals are not only significant within each regime but are also significant for the switches between the two regimes.

The results are of interest to practitioners and policy makers since understanding the evolution and determination of exchange rates is of crucial importance. Furthermore, our results are linked to forecasting performance of exchange rate models.

The present analysis extends previous analyses on exchange rate determination and it provides further support in favor of the monetary model as a long-run framework to understand the evolution of exchange rates.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of selected macro-economic variables like real effective exchange rate (REER), GDP, inflation (INF), the volume of trade (TR) and money supply (M2) on-budget deficit (BD) in Bangladesh over the period of 1980–2018.

By using secondary data, the paper uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test is used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables under study.

Johansen’s cointegration test result shows that there exists a positive long-run relationship of selected macroeconomic variables (real effective exchange rate, inflation, the volume of trade and money supply) with the budget deficit, whereas GDP has a negative one. The short-run results from the VECM show that GDP, inflation and money supply have a negative relationship with the budget deficit. The Granger Causality test results reveal unidirectional causal relationships running from BD to REER; TR to BD; M2 to BD; GDP to REER; M2 to REER; INF to GDP; GDP to TR; M2 to GDP and bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and BD; TR and REER; M2 and TR.

Bangladesh has been experiencing a budget deficit since 1972 due to a decline in sources of revenue. This study contributes to the empirical debate on the causal nexus between macroeconomic variables and budget deficits by employing VECM and Granger Causality approaches.

The purpose of this paper is to test the market linkage and the strength of the linkage between the identity‐preserved (IP) non‐genetically modified organism (non‐GMO) and non‐IP conventional soybean futures markets at the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE) when effects from structural breaks are considered.

The Johansen method is used for testing the market linkage and the law of one price (LOP) test is performed to find out the strength of the linkage. The Bai‐Perron test is conducted on the price series to identify the structural breaks. After the breaks are statistically determined by the Bai‐Perron test the Johansen tests are conducted for every break period.

Market linkage exists between the non‐GMO and conventional soybean futures markets but the LOP test suggests that the two markets are not fully linked and the relative price of the two soybeans is not constant. The breaks identified in the study affected the market linkage; the price relationship is lost during the break periods.

The results of this study help explain the value of other new markets where the product traded is a close substitute for an existing market.

This is the first study to apply the market integration theory to an IP market. The TGE non‐GMO soybean contract is the first market price series with sufficient information to appropriately model a price integration linkage for an IP market. The result is valuable in the future when more markets for IP commodities are developed.

This paper aims to seek to find answers to three questions. First, is there any possibility of long-term cointegration between East and Southeast Asian equity markets? If so, how many cointegrating equations are there? Second, what are the short-term causal relationships between equity markets in East and Southeast Asia? Third, what is the East Asia’s most influential equity market toward their Southeast counterparts, and vice versa?

This study uses Johansen's (1988) cointegration method to test long-run relationships among East and Southeast Asian equity markets. With regards to short-run causal relationships, this study uses Granger-causality test as well as the forecast variance decomposition method.

Johansen test proves that there is cointegration between East and Southeast Asian equity markets, but the integration process is not complete. Cointegrating vector also provides evidence that member countries of ASEAN+3 respond differently to external shocks. With regards to short-run causal direction, this study finds that Japan Granger-causes all equity markets in Southeast Asia, while Singapore and Vietnam Granger-cause all equity markets in East Asia. These results imply that Japan is the market with most linkages in Southeast Asia, while Singapore and Vietnam are the markets with most linkages to East Asia. Furthermore, forecast variance decomposition reveals that Japan is the East Asia’s most influential equity markets, while Singapore is the most influential equity market in Southeast Asia. This study suggests that policymakers in East and Southeast Asian countries to synchronize the capital market standards and regulations as well as to reduce the barriers for capital mobility to spur the regional equity market integration.

Increasing integration of East and Southeast Asian capital markets forces policymakers in ASEAN+3 countries to synchronize monetary policies, as it has been found that regionally integrated capital markets reduce the degree of independent monetary policy (Logue et al., 1976). It is therefore important for policymakers in East and Southeast Asian countries to assess the possibility of stock market integration within this region to anticipate the future risks associated with economic integration as well as to build collective regional institutions (Wang, 2004). Click and Plummer (2005) also argued that integrated stock markets is more efficient than nationally segmented equity markets, and the efficiency of Asian capital markets has been questioned in particular after the 1997 Asian financial crises. Yet, the empirical evidence on the extent of financial integration among ASEAN+3 member countries has been limited and inconclusive. This study is therefore an attempt to investigate the recent development of ASEAN+3 equity markets integration.

This study focuses its attention on the existence and the extent of financial integration in East and Southeast Asia region, and it provides evidence that equity market integration in ASEAN+3 is far from complete, and for that reason, there is a need for policymakers in ASEAN+3 member countries to synchronize their standards and regulations. Furthermore, the policymakers in East and Southeast Asia can gain benefit from this study, as it provides the evidence that ASEAN+3 member countries respond differently to policy shocks, which may hinder the development of regional financial integration as well as the policy effectiveness of region-wide authority in ASEAN+3.

This research is different from previous studies, as it puts the regional financial integration within the context of ASEAN+3 frameworks. Unlike previous research that considers East and Southeast Asian countries as an individual entity, this research considers East and Southeast Asia into two different blocks, following Tourk (2004) who documented that negotiation process for ASEAN+3 financial integration is conducted in sub-regional level (ASEAN vs East Asia), rather than national level (country per country basis). Second, this study covers the period after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. As suggested in Wang (2014), that the degree of stock market integration tends to change around the periods marked by financial crises, the updated study on Asian financial integration in the aftermath of 1997 financial crises is important to document the development of regional financial integration.

The purpose of this paper is to econometrically investigate the level of financial co-integration of the least developed countries (LDCs) of Asia and Pacific region. In addition, the paper also tested the co-integration of LDCs with the world’s second largest economy “China.” For this, the paper employed the foreign exchange data sets of respective LDCs. It also aimed to assess the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between the foreign exchange rates of LDCs and China, and further, examined the past and current level of their co-relational dependence.

The authors created data sets namely LDCs of Asia and Pacific, LDCs of SAARC, LDCs of ASEAN, LDCs of Pacific, LDCs of SAARC and ASEAN, LDCs of ASEAN and Pacific, and LDCs of SAARC and Pacific. In addition, the authors tested the co-integration of these seven groups with China, and thus, making a total of 14 data sets. The analysis was carried out using the Johansen and Gregory-Hansen multivariate co-integration econometric techniques. To assess the DCC, multivariate DCC GARCH model was employed.

It was found that at the intra-regional level, exchange rates of LDCs of SAARC, ASEAN and Pacific were co-integrated and showed the existence of 1-3 co-integrating equations. At inter-regional level SAARC-ASEAN, ASEAN-Pacific and SAARC-Pacific were also co-integrated and showed 1-3 co-integrated equations. However, on the inclusion of China in the study, the degree of co-integration of exchange rate of China with LDCs of SAARC and ASEAN increased, while with Pacific, the result was mixed. Conditional correlation estimated of multivariate DCC GARCH model suggested that except for Afghanistan, there was an upward shift in the correlation dynamics of exchange rates of LDCs with China, post global financial crisis.

Asia and Pacific region constituted of 53 countries, of which 13 were LDCs. Enhanced financial integration among LDCs of Asia-Pacific region and also between LDCs and major economies of the region like China will strengthen economic and financial integration efforts in the region.

The present paper attempted a comparative assessment of the co-movements of the foreign exchange markets of LDCs, the countries which have remained largely neglected in academic discourses on financial integration.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stability of the long‐run relationships between emerging (India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan) and developed stock markets (USA and Japan). The study aims at adding to the literature on market integration by investigating the hypothesis that the Asian emerging stock markets are increasingly converging with the US stock market over time.

The authors use time varying cointegration tests (rolling and recursive cointegration) which allow for time variation in the underlying data generating process (possible structural breaks in the long‐run relationships). Ten year index data from mid 1998 to 2008 of the respective stock markets have been used for this study.

Empirical findings support the presence of one long‐run relationship (cointegration vector) between emerging and developed stock markets. Both domestic and external forces affect stock market behavior, leading to long‐run equilibrium but the individual Asian emerging stock markets tend to display stronger linkages with the USA (developed counterpart) rather than with their neighbors. The degree of convergence among Asian emerging markets has increased over the last few years.

This is the first paper to study cointegration among Asian emerging stock markets namely India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as their cointegration with the developed stock markets of the USA and Japan.