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1 – 10 of over 4000This chapter focuses on examining how changes in the liquidity differential between nominal and TIPS yields influence optimal portfolio allocations in U.S. Treasury securities…
Abstract
This chapter focuses on examining how changes in the liquidity differential between nominal and TIPS yields influence optimal portfolio allocations in U.S. Treasury securities. Based on a nonparametric estimation technique and comparing the optimal allocation decisions of mean-variance and CRRA investor, when investment opportunities are time varying, I present evidence that liquidity risk premium is a significant risk-factor in a portfolio allocation context. In fact, I find that a conditional allocation strategy translates into improved in-sample and out-of-sample asset allocation and performance. The analysis of the portfolio allocation to U.S. government bonds is particularly important for central banks, specially in developing countries, given the fact that, collectively they have accumulate a large holdings of U.S. securities over the last 15 years.
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In this study, we analyze the power of the individual return-to-volatility security performance heuristic (ri/stdi) to simplify the identification of securities to buy and…
Abstract
In this study, we analyze the power of the individual return-to-volatility security performance heuristic (ri/stdi) to simplify the identification of securities to buy and, consequently, to form the optimal no short sales mean–variance portfolios. The heuristic ri/stdi is powerful enough to identify the long and shorts sets. This is due to the positive definiteness of the variance–covariance matrix – the key is to use the heuristic sequentially. At the investor level, the heuristic helps investors to decide what securities to consider first. At the portfolio level, the heuristic may help us find out whether it is a good idea to invest in equity to begin with. Our research may also help to integrate individual security analysis into portfolio optimization through improved security rankings.
A. Can Inci and Rachel Lagasse
This study investigates the role of cryptocurrencies in enhancing the performance of portfolios constructed from traditional asset classes. Using a long sample period covering not…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the role of cryptocurrencies in enhancing the performance of portfolios constructed from traditional asset classes. Using a long sample period covering not only the large value increases but also the dramatic declines during the beginning of 2018, the purpose of this paper is to provide a more complete analysis of the dynamic nature of cryptocurrencies as individual investment opportunities, and as components of optimal portfolios.
Design/methodology/approach
The mean-variance optimization technique of Merton (1990) is applied to develop the risk and return characteristics of the efficient portfolios, along with the optimal weights of the asset class components in the portfolios.
Findings
The authors provide evidence that as a single investment, the best cryptocurrency is Ripple, followed by Bitcoin and Litecoin. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies have a useful role in the optimal portfolio construction and in investments, in addition to their original purposes for which they were created. Bitcoin is the best cryptocurrency enhancing the characteristics of the optimal portfolio. Ripple and Litecoin follow in terms of their usefulness in an optimal portfolio as single cryptocurrencies. Including all these cryptocurrencies in a portfolio generates the best (most optimal) results. Contributions of the cryptocurrencies to the optimal portfolio evolve over time. Therefore, the results and conclusions of this study have no guarantee for continuation in an exact manner in the future. However, the increasing popularity and the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies will assist their future presence in investment portfolios.
Originality/value
This is one of the first studies that examine the role of popular cryptocurrencies in enhancing a portfolio composed of traditional asset classes. The sample period is the largest that has been used in this strand of the literature, and allows to compare optimal portfolios in early/recent subsamples, and during the pre-/post-cryptocurrency crisis periods.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine whether corporate governance has an impact on portfolio selection within the usual mean‐variance framework, the idea being that by reducing…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether corporate governance has an impact on portfolio selection within the usual mean‐variance framework, the idea being that by reducing agency conflicts, corporate governance increases the value of the firm.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a sample of 460 American firms between 1995 and 2004, the authors first determine the optimal mean‐variance portfolio. The authors then test whether governance characteristics explain the optimal portfolio weights.
Findings
The results show that the optimal portfolio weights are sensitive to internal control mechanisms, ownership concentration, managerial entrenchment and incentive compensation.
Originality/value
The results are relevant to academicians and investors concerned with portfolio selection. In fact, they underline the importance of including governance characteristics in their portfolio selection.
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The purpose of this article is to help investors build less-concentrated portfolios as well as to construct optimal return-concentration portfolios.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to help investors build less-concentrated portfolios as well as to construct optimal return-concentration portfolios.
Design/methodology/approach
An alternative portfolio objective is proposed where investors care about the level of concentration of their portfolio weights. Minimizing the concentration of portfolio weights leads to the well-known equal-weight portfolio as the optimal choice. Maximizing the trade-off between the portfolio's expected return and the weight concentration produces a novel portfolio with weights proportional to the expected return of each security.
Findings
An empirical application with 30 industry portfolios and 1,000 individual stocks finds that both proposed strategies perform well out-of-sample both in terms of the proposed concentration measure but also in terms of more traditional risk-based measures like Sharpe ratios, abnormal returns and market betas.
Originality/value
The optimal risk-concentration portfolio proposed in this paper is a novel result. The portfolio generalizes prior practitioner intuition on focusing on securities with the highest expected returns and the concept of diversification.
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The purpose of this paper is to study the scope for country diversification in international portfolios of mutual funds for the “core” EMU countries. The author uses a sample of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the scope for country diversification in international portfolios of mutual funds for the “core” EMU countries. The author uses a sample of daily returns for country indices of French, German and Italian funds to investigate the quest for international diversification. The author focuses on fixed-income mutual funds during the period of the financial market turmoil since 2007.
Design/methodology/approach
The author compute optimal portfolio allocations from both unconstrained and constrained mean-variance frameworks that take as input the out-of-sample forecasts for the conditional mean, volatility and correlation of country-level indices for funds returns. The author also applies a portfolio allocation model based on utility maximization with learning about the time-varying conditional moments. The author compares the out-of-sample forecasting performance of 12 multivariate volatility models.
Findings
The author finds that there is a “core” EMU country also for the mutual fund industry: optimal portfolios allocate the largest portfolio weight to German funds, with Italian funds assigned a lower weight in comparison to French funds. This result is remarkably robust across competing forecasting models and optimal allocation strategies. It is also consistent with the findings from a utility-maximization model that incorporates learning about time-varying conditional moments.
Originality/value
This is the first study on optimal country-level diversification for a mutual fund investor focused on European countries in the fixed-income space for the turmoil period. The author uses a large array of econometric models that captures the salient features of a period characterized by large changes in volatility and correlation, and compare the performance of different optimal asset allocation models.
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Raimond Maurer and Shohreh Valiani
This study seeks to examine the effectiveness of controlling the currency risk for international diversified mixed‐asset portfolios via two different hedge instruments, currency…
Abstract
Purpose
This study seeks to examine the effectiveness of controlling the currency risk for international diversified mixed‐asset portfolios via two different hedge instruments, currency forwards and currency options. So far, currency forward has been the most common hedge tool, which will be compared here with currency options to control the foreign currency exposure risk. In this regard, several hedging strategies are evaluated and compared with one another.
Design/methodology/approach
Owing to the highly skewed return distributions of options, the application of the traditional mean‐variance framework for portfolio optimization is doubtful. To account for this problem, a mean lower partial moment model is employed. An in‐the‐sample as well as an out‐of‐the sample context is used. With in‐sample analyses, a block bootstrap test has been used to statistically test the existence of any significant performance improvement. Following that, to investigate the consistency of the results, the out‐of‐sample evaluation has been checked. In addition, currency trends are also taken into account to test the time‐trend dependence of currency movements and, therefore, the relative potential gains of risk‐controlling strategies.
Findings
Results show that European put‐in‐the‐money options have the potential to substitute the optimally forward‐hedged portfolios. Considering the composition of the portfolio in using in‐the‐money options and forwards shows that using any of these hedge tools brings a much more diversified selection of stock and bond markets than no hedging strategy. The optimal option weights imply that a put‐in‐the‐money option strategy is more active than at‐the‐money or out‐of‐the‐money put options, which implies the dependency of put strategies on the level of strike price. A very interesting point is that, just by dedicating a very small part of the investment in options, the same amount of currency risk exposure can be hedged as when one uses the optimal forward hedging. In the out‐of‐sample study, the optimally forward‐hedged strategy generally presents a much better performance than any types of put policies.
Practical implications
The research shows the risk and return implications of different currency hedging strategies. The finding could be of interest for asset managers of internationally diversified portfolios.
Originality/value
Considering the findings in the out‐of‐sample perspective, the optimally forward‐hedged minimum risk portfolio dominates all other strategies, while, in the depreciation of the local currency, this, together with the forward‐hedged tangency portfolio selection, would characterize the dominant portfolio strategies.
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Mourad Mroua, Fathi Abid and Wing Keung Wong
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in three ways: first, the authors investigate the impact of the sampling errors on optimal portfolio weights and on…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in three ways: first, the authors investigate the impact of the sampling errors on optimal portfolio weights and on financial investment decision. Second, the authors advance a comparative analysis between various domestic and international diversification strategies to define a stochastic optimal choice. Third, the authors propose a new methodology combining the re-sampling method, stochastic optimization algorithm, and nonparametric stochastic dominance (SD) approach to analyze a stochastic optimal portfolio choice for risk-averse American investors who care about benefits of domestic diversification relative to international diversification. The authors propose a new portfolio optimization model involving SD constraints on the portfolio return rate. The authors define a portfolio with return dominating the benchmark portfolio return in the second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) and having maximum expected return. The authors combine re-sampling procedure and stochastic optimization to establish more flexibility in the investment decision rule.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors apply the re-sampling procedure to consider the sampling error in the optimization process. The authors try to resolve the problem of the stochastic optimal investment strategy choice using the nonparametric SD test by Linton et al. (2005) based on sub-sampling simulated p values. The authors apply the stochastic portfolio optimization algorithm with SSD constraints to define optimal diversified portfolios beating benchmark indices.
Findings
First, the authors find that reducing sampling error increases the dominance relationships between different portfolios, which, in turn, alters portfolio investment decisions. Though international diversification is preferred in some cases, the study’s results show that for risk-averse US investors, in general, there is no difference between the diversification strategies; this implies that there is no increase in the expected utility of international diversification for the period before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Nevertheless, the authors find that stochastic diversification in domestic, global, and Europe, Australasia, and Far East markets delivers better risk returns for the US risk averters during the crisis period.
Originality/value
The originality of the idea in this paper is to introduce a new methodology combining the concept of portfolio re-sampling, stochastic portfolio optimization with SSD constraints, and the nonparametric SD test by Linton et al. (2005) based on subsampling simulated p values to analyze the impact of sampling errors on optimal portfolio returns and to investigate the problem of stochastic optimal choice between international and domestic diversification strategies. The authors try to prove more coherence in the portfolio choice with the stochastically and the uncertainty characters of the paper.
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I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to…
Abstract
I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.
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Stephen Lee and Simon Stevenson
The use of modern portfolio theory (MPT) in the construction real estate portfolios has two serious limitations when used in an ex ante framework: the intertemporal instability of…
Abstract
Purpose
The use of modern portfolio theory (MPT) in the construction real estate portfolios has two serious limitations when used in an ex ante framework: the intertemporal instability of the portfolio weights; and the sharp deterioration in performance of the optimal portfolios outside the sample period used to estimate asset mean returns. Both problems can be traced to wide fluctuations in sample means. Aims to prove that the use of a procedure that ignores the estimation risk due to the uncertain in mean returns is likely to produce sub‐optimal results in subsequent periods.
Design/methodology/approach
This study extends previous ex ante‐based studies by evaluating ex post optimal portfolio allocations in subsequent test periods by using methods that have been proposed to reduce the effect of measurement error on optimal portfolio allocations.
Findings
While techniques designed to handle estimation risk in capital market studies have yielded promising results, they are not completely successful in improving out‐of‐sample performance in this case. It is hypothesised that such results are due to the cyclical nature of property and that the contrarian and mean‐reversion effects picked up in studies of stocks and bonds are not captured when an asset such as direct property is examined. This conclusion is also supported by the strong performance of the tangency portfolios, and in particular the classical unadjusted Sharpe portfolio, over the shorter horizons, which would be consistent with a cyclical momentum effect.
Originality/value
The results suggest that the consideration of the issue of estimation risk is crucial in the use of MPT in developing a successful real estate portfolio strategy.
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