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1 – 10 of 26Sharneet Singh Jagirdar and Pradeep Kumar Gupta
The present study reviews the literature on the history and evolution of investment strategies in the stock market for the period from 1900 to 2022. Conflicts and relationships…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study reviews the literature on the history and evolution of investment strategies in the stock market for the period from 1900 to 2022. Conflicts and relationships arising from such diverse seminal studies have been identified to address the research gaps.
Design/methodology/approach
The studies for this review were identified and screened from electronic databases to compile a comprehensive list of 200 relevant studies for inclusion in this review and summarized for the cognizance of researchers.
Findings
The study finds a coherence to complex theoretical documentation of more than a century of evolution on investment strategy in stock markets, capturing the characteristics of time with a chronological study of events.
Research limitations/implications
There were complications in locating unpublished studies leading to biases like publication bias, the reluctance of editors to publish studies, which do not reveal statistically significant differences, and English language bias.
Practical implications
Practitioners can refine investment strategies by incorporating behavioral finance insights and recognizing the influence of psychological biases. Strategies span value, growth, contrarian, or momentum indicators. Mitigating overconfidence bias supports effective risk management. Social media sentiment analysis facilitates real-time decision-making. Adapting to evolving market liquidity curbs volatility risks. Identifying biases guides investor education initiatives.
Originality/value
This paper is an original attempt to pictorially depict the seminal works in stock market investment strategies of more than a hundred years.
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Tapas Kumar Sethy and Naliniprava Tripathy
This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on the conditional volatility of the equity market.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study employs the Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) for pricing systematic liquidity risk using the Fama & MacBeth cross-sectional regression model in the Indian stock market from January 1, 2012, to March 31, 2021. Further, the study employed an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (1,1) model to observe the impact of decomposed illiquidity on the equity market’s conditional volatility. The study also uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to illuminate the return-volatility-liquidity relationship.
Findings
The study’s findings indicate that the commonality between individual security liquidity and aggregate liquidity is positive, and the covariance of individual security liquidity and the market return negatively affects the expected return. The study’s outcome specifies that illiquidity time series analysis exhibits the asymmetric effect of directional change in return on illiquidity. Further, the study indicates a significant impact of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on conditional volatility. This suggests an asymmetric effect of illiquidity shocks on conditional volatility in the Indian stock market.
Originality/value
This study is one of the few studies that used the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to measure liquidity and market risks as specified in the LCAPM. Further, the findings of the reverse impact of illiquidity and decomposed higher and lower illiquidity on conditional volatility confirm the presence of price informativeness and its immediate effects on illiquidity in the Indian stock market. The study strengthens earlier studies and offers new insights into stock market liquidity to clarify the association between liquidity and stock return for effective policy and strategy formulation that can benefit investors.
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Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad
We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.
Abstract
Purpose
We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.
Findings
We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.
Originality/value
We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.
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Svetoslav Covachev and Gergely Fazakas
This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense sector, consisting of weapons manufacturers.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the event study methodology to quantify the impact. That is, the authors assume that markets are efficient, and abnormal stock returns around the event dates capture the magnitudes of the impacts of the two events studied on European defense sector companies. The authors use the capital asset pricing model and two different multifactor models to estimate expected stock returns, which serve as the benchmark necessary to obtain abnormal returns.
Findings
The start of the war on February 24, 2022, when the Russian forces invaded Ukraine, was followed by high positive abnormal returns of up to 12% in the next few days. The results are particularly strong if multiple factors are used to control for the risk of the defense stocks. Conversely, the authors find a negative impact of the rebellion initiated by the mercenary Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 23, 2023, on the abnormal returns of defense industry stocks on the first trading day after the event.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the defense sector. Furthermore, this is the first study to measure the financial implications of the military coup initiated by the Wagner Group. The findings contribute to a rapidly growing literature on the financial implications of military conflicts around the world.
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Shukuan Zhao, Xueyuan Fan, Dong Shao and Shuang Wang
This study aims to investigate the impact of supply chain concentration (SCC) on corporate research and development (R&D) investment and determine the moderating roles of industry…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the impact of supply chain concentration (SCC) on corporate research and development (R&D) investment and determine the moderating roles of industry concentration and financing constraints on the relationship between SCC and R&D investment.
Design/methodology/approach
The study collected data from Chinese listed companies, used the fixed effects model to test the research hypotheses and further used the two-stage Heckman test and propensity score matching (PSM) to address potential endogeneity issues.
Findings
The result reveals a negative impact of SCC on corporate R&D investment. In addition, industry concentration mitigates the negative impact of SCC on corporate R&D investment, but financing constraints strengthen the negative impact.
Originality/value
This study introduces the concept of SCC and empirically tests its effect on R&D investment, further explaining the lack of corporate innovation. This study inspires companies to strengthen SC management and weigh the level of SCC with environmental factors.
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The accurate valuation of second-hand vessels has become a prominent subject of interest among investors, necessitating regular impairment tests. Previous literature has…
Abstract
Purpose
The accurate valuation of second-hand vessels has become a prominent subject of interest among investors, necessitating regular impairment tests. Previous literature has predominantly concentrated on inferring a vessel's price through parameter estimation but has overlooked the prediction accuracy. With the increasing adoption of machine learning for pricing physical assets, this paper aims to quantify potential factors in a non-parametric manner. Furthermore, it seeks to evaluate whether the devised method can serve as an efficient means of valuation.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper proposes a stacking ensemble approach with add-on feedforward neural networks, taking four tree-driven models as base learners. The proposed method is applied to a training dataset collected from public sources. Then, the performance is assessed on the test dataset and compared with a benchmark model, commonly used in previous studies.
Findings
The results on the test dataset indicate that the designed method not only outperforms base learners under statistical metrics but also surpasses the benchmark GAM in terms of accuracy. Notably, 73% of the testing points fall within the less-than-10% error range. The designed method can leverage the predictive power of base learners by incrementally adding a small amount of target value through residuals and harnessing feature engineering capability from neural networks.
Originality/value
This paper marks the pioneering use of the stacking ensemble in vessel pricing within the literature. The impressive performance positions it as an efficient desktop valuation tool for market users.
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Rangan Gupta and Damien Moodley
Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national…
Abstract
Purpose
Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national and regional (metropolitan statistical area [MSA]) level. Based on search theory, the authors, however, postulate that search activity can also predict housing returns volatility. This study aims to explore the possibility of using online search activity to predict both housing returns and volatility.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a k-th order non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test allows us to test for predictability in a robust manner over the entire conditional distribution of both housing price returns and its volatility (i.e. squared returns) by controlling for nonlinearity and structural breaks that exist in the data.
Findings
The analysis over the monthly period of 2004:01 to 2021:01 produces results indicating that while housing search activity continues to predict aggregate US house price returns, barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution, volatility is relatively strongly predicted over the entire quantile range considered. The results carry over to an alternative (the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based) metric of volatility, higher (weekly)-frequency data (over January 2018–March 2021) and to over 84% of the 77 MSAs considered.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study regarding predictability of overall and regional US housing price returns and volatility using search activity, based on a non-parametric higher-order causality-in-quantiles framework, which is insightful to investors, policymakers and academics.
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Surprisingly little is known of the various methods of security analysis used by financial analysts with industry-specific knowledge. Financial analysts’ industry knowledge is a…
Abstract
Purpose
Surprisingly little is known of the various methods of security analysis used by financial analysts with industry-specific knowledge. Financial analysts’ industry knowledge is a favored and appreciated attribute by fund managers and institutional investors. Understanding analysts’ use of industry-specific valuation models, which are the main value drivers within different industries, will enhance our understanding of important aspects of value creation in these industries. This paper contributes to the broader understanding of how financial analysts in various industries approach valuation, offering insights that can be beneficial to a wide range of stakeholders in the financial market.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper systematically reviews existing research to consolidate the current understanding of analysts’ use of valuation models and factors. It aims to demystify what can often be seen as a “black box”, shedding light on the valuation tools employed by financial analysts across diverse industries.
Findings
The use of industry-specific valuation models and factors by analysts is a subject of considerable interest to both academics and investors. The predominant model in several industries is P/E, with some exceptions. Notably, EV/EBITDA is favored in the telecom, energy and materials sectors, while the capital goods industry primarily relies on P/CF. In the REITs sector, P/AFFO is the most commonly employed model. In specific sectors like pharmaceuticals, energy and telecom, DCF is utilized. However, theoretical models like RIM and AEG find limited use among analysts.
Originality/value
This is the first paper systematically reviewing the research on analyst’s use of industry-specific stock valuation methods. It serves as a foundation for future research in this field and is likely to be of interest to academics, analysts, fund managers and investors.
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The paper provides a detailed historical account of Douglass C. North's early intellectual contributions and analytical developments in pursuing a Grand Theory for why some…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper provides a detailed historical account of Douglass C. North's early intellectual contributions and analytical developments in pursuing a Grand Theory for why some countries are rich and others poor.
Design/methodology/approach
The author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.
Findings
The systematic, continuous and profound attempt to answer the Smithian social coordination problem shaped North's journey from being a young serious Marxist to becoming one of the founders of New Institutional Economics. In the process, he was converted in the early 1950s into a rigid neoclassical economist, being one of the leaders in promoting New Economic History. The success of the cliometric revolution exposed the frailties of the movement itself, namely, the limitations of neoclassical economic theory to explain economic growth and social change. Incorporating transaction costs, the institutional framework in which property rights and contracts are measured, defined and enforced assumes a prominent role in explaining economic performance.
Originality/value
In the early 1970s, North adopted a naive theory of institutions and property rights still grounded in neoclassical assumptions. Institutional and organizational analysis is modeled as a social maximizing efficient equilibrium outcome. However, the increasing tension between the neoclassical theoretical apparatus and its failure to account for contrasting political and institutional structures, diverging economic paths and social change propelled the modification of its assumptions and progressive conceptual innovation. In the later 1970s and early 1980s, North abandoned the efficiency view and gradually became more critical of the objective rationality postulate. In this intellectual movement, North's avant-garde research program contributed significantly to the creation of New Institutional Economics.
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Dewa Gede Wirama, Komang Ayu Krisnadewi, Luh Gede Sri Artini and Putu Agus Ardiana
Using the residual dividend theory, this study examines the impact of capital expenditures and working capital on the dividend policies of publicly listed companies in Indonesia.
Abstract
Purpose
Using the residual dividend theory, this study examines the impact of capital expenditures and working capital on the dividend policies of publicly listed companies in Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
Using data on public companies (other than those in the financial sector) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2020, this study collected 870 observations (firm-years). This study employs a regression analysis technique using the STATA application program. The main variables in this study are capital expenditure and working capital, and the control variables are sales growth, firm size, leverage, profitability, liquidity and dummy variables for state-owned enterprises. The dependent variable of dividend policy is proxied by the dividend payout ratio.
Findings
This study’s results support the residual dividend theory’s hypothesis, in which capital expenditure negatively affects a company’s dividend policy. This study also analyzes this effect on companies that pay cash dividends at quantile positions of 25, 30, 50 and 60. The results show that the effect of capital expenditure on cash dividend payments is more pronounced in the case of companies whose cash dividends are in the 50th quantile. This result holds across different specification and endogeneity tests.
Originality/value
This study analyzes the residual dividend theory in Indonesian companies, focusing on localized factors and investment priorities. It challenges traditional Western dividend policies and provides empirical data that enhances the theory’s robustness. The findings have practical implications for investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers in the Indonesian market.
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