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In this article, we propose a new class of flexible seasonal time series models to characterize the trend and seasonal variations. The proposed model consists of a common trend function over periods and additive individual trend (seasonal effect) functions that are specific to each season within periods. A local linear approach is developed to estimate the trend and seasonal effect functions. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators, together with a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance, are obtained under the α-mixing conditions and without specifying the error distribution. The proposed methodologies are illustrated with a simulated example and two economic and financial time series, which exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior.

The relationship between electricity demand and weather in the United States has been studied as of late due to increased demand, de-regulation, and new pricing models. The influence of weather or seasonality in energy consumption, particularly electricity demand, has been widely researched. A significant scientific interest in the seasonality of energy consumption has led to an important number of papers exploring the role of weather variability and change on energy consumption. Most of these papers model demand as a function of seasonal climate factors.

The goal of this research is a broad examination of monthly residential electricity demand for a region of the mid-Atlantic using Excel and step-wise regression. This is achieved by using a sequence of models built in Excel in which different patterns are gradually introduced in the estimations. Data over a seven-year period is utilized. A backward elimination step-wise regression analysis is employed to determine which independent variables best model the data. Initial independent variables included high monthly temperature, low monthly temperature, time, year, month, seasonal quarter, and introduction of a “green” tax credit for solar and wind energy.

Models for forecasting the electricity demand and the predictive power of these models is assessed. The work is organized as follows: Data description and the methodology, trend and the seasonality of electricity usage in the mid-Atlantic region, the predictive power and seasonality of the models, and main conclusions drawn from the study.

Climate change is a massive multidimensional shift. Temperature shifts, in particular, have important implications for urbanization, agriculture, health, productivity, and poverty, among other things. While much research has documented rising mean temperature levels, the authors also examine range-based measures of daily temperature volatility. Specifically, using data for select US cities over the past half-century, the authors compare the evolving time series dynamics of the average daily temperature (AVG) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR; the difference between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures). The authors characterize trend and seasonality in these two series using linear models with time-varying coefficients. These straightforward yet flexible approximations provide evidence of evolving DTR seasonality and stable AVG seasonality.

This chapter presents an Excel-based regression analysis to forecast seasonal demand for U.S. Imported Beer sales data. The following seasonal regression models are presented and interpreted including a simple yearly model, a quarterly model, a semi-annual model, and a monthly model. The results of the models are compared and a discussion of each model's efficacy is provided. The yearly model does the best at forecasting U.S. Import Beer sales. However, the yearly does not provide a window into shorter-term (i.e., monthly) forecasting periods and subsequent peaks and valleys in demand. Although the monthly seasonal regression model does not explain as much variance in the data as the yearly model it fits the actual data very well. The monthly model is considered a good forecasting model based on the significance of the regression statistics and low mean absolute percentage error. Therefore, it can be concluded that the monthly seasonal model presented is doing an overall good job of forecasting U.S. Import Beer Sales and assisting managers in shorter time frame forecasting.

The seasonality in the behavior of travelers is something that goes back to the origin of the trips themselves. This seasonality is due to multiple factors, some easy to counteract and others difficult to solve. But, regardless of the causes, it is a phenomenon that generates significant negative impacts on society and the environment in which the phenomenon of tourist seasonality occurs. All tourist destinations have seasonality, but in some cases, it is very high and in others it has a minimal incidence. The objective of this chapter is to ponder the impacts and consequences of seasonality in regions with a strong tourism development, allowing to put into context the aspects of society impacted by this phenomenon and the positive implications that the reduction of seasonality would have. For this, an analysis of a theoretical model with two regions in opposite situations is carried out, raising the possible effects of a high seasonality. The cases of the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands are also reviewed, as real examples of the regional typologies taken into consideration in the theoretical model. This seeks to ponder the problems attributable to seasonality. As a final reflection, the enormous typology of negative impacts generated and the need to continue analyzing the seasonality and its impacts are emphasized.

Internet + and Electronic Business in China is a comprehensive resource that provides insight and analysis into E-commerce in China and how it has revolutionized and continues to revolutionize business and society. Split into four distinct sections, the book first lays out the theoretical foundations and fundamental concepts of E-Business before moving on to look at internet+ innovation models and their applications in different industries such as agriculture, finance and commerce. The book then provides a comprehensive analysis of E-business platforms and their applications in China before finishing with four comprehensive case studies of major E-business projects, providing readers with successful examples of implementing E-Business entrepreneurship projects.

Internet + and Electronic Business in China is a comprehensive resource that provides insights and analysis into how E-commerce has revolutionized and continues to revolutionize business and society in China.

Purpose — The chapter presents the practical applications of web search statistics analysis. The process description highlights the potential use of search queries and statistical data and how they could be used in various forecasting situations. The presented case is an example of applied computational intelligence and the main focus is oriented towards the decision support offered by the software mechanism and its capabilities to automatically gather, process and analyse data.

Methodology/approach — The statistics of the search queries as a source of prognostic information are analysed in a step-by-step process, starting from their content and scope, their processing and applications, and concluding with usage in a software-based intelligent framework.

Research implications — The analysis of search engine trends offers a great opportunity for many areas of research. Into the future, deploying this information in the prognosis will further develop intelligent data processing.

Practical implications — This functionality offers a unique possibility, impossible until now, to observe, estimate and predict various processes using wide, precise and accurate behaviour observations. The scope and quality of data allow practitioners to successfully use it in various prognostic problems (i.e. political, medical, or economic).

Originality/value of paper — The chapter presents practical implications of technology. The chapter then highlights potential areas that would benefit from the analysis of queries statistics. Moreover, it introduces ‘WebPerceiver’, an intelligent platform, built to make the analysis and usage of search trends easier and more generally available to a wide audience, including non-skilled users.